IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Just a quick question. How do you get a wrapped up low off NJ without a 50/50 low off SE Canada. Thinking an elongated low brushing the coast. Ok taking cover now lol. Do you know what a 50/50 low actually is? It's important for blocking purposes but nothing much else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Sounds like the Euro ensembles were very juiced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Sounds like the Euro ensembles were very juiced. warm and wet per NE discussion. I'd be happy with that, just to get some sort of storm in here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 warm and wet per NE discussion. I'd be happy with that, just to get some sort of storm in here... Yeah me too, anything but OTS. We need to put all this talk about how it can't happen because the pattern is too progressive to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 warm and wet per NE discussion. I'd be happy with that, just to get some sort of storm in here... How warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 It's early but the NAM looks like it would be a better setup for an earlier phase. The ridging out west is more pronounced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 We've got 5 or 6 days and 10-12 more runs of the EURO to get this right. Who knows, the end solution maybe OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor'easterblizzard Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Do we want an earlier phase? I'm preparing to do my second write up this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 How warm? Very close to the OP. Hopefully, this won't be another storm that dries out as we get closer like recent events. The last 1.00" event for NYC was 9-22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 It's early but the NAM looks like it would be a better setup for an earlier phase. The riding out west is more pronounced. NAM is always that way at the end of its range, its a good sign to see the NAM there at 84 hours because if the NAM is similar or less amped than the GFS at that range you need to be worried you're looking at a more suppressed solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 We have the potential to get more rain with this one event than we have the past 4 months total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 The JMA has a big phase and brings 3-4" of rain to the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 We have the potential to get more rain with this one event than we have the past 4 months total. that's an amazing stat.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 We have the potential to get more rain with this one event than we have the past 4 months total. last 3 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Do you know what a 50/50 low actually is? It's important for blocking purposes but nothing much else. Exactly it is totally absent from the GFS 500mb vort map allowing the low to scream up the coast without amplifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Trust me, it will. Dry is the new normal. Read more, post less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 One trend is that the initial northern stream trough which will bring us the arctic blast on Sunday has trended more and more amplified which helps pump up the heights significantly over Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor'easterblizzard Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Trust me, it will. Dry is the new normal. You have evidence to back this up? I think not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Through hr 84 on the 18z GFS things look a bit better. Seems as if the northern stream is digging a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Do you have something valuable to add to this discussion or are you here just to troll?I am going off recent patterns. The tendency has been for models to have a very wet bias this fall, only to dry up as the event gets closer. Is there any reason that this will likely be any different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor'easterblizzard Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Back to topic, to my unprofessional eye, it looks like it may be looking to phase quicker on the 18z GFS through Hour 63. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 GFS is coming west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor'easterblizzard Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Through hr 84 on the 18z GFS things look a bit better. Seems as if the northern stream is digging a bit more. How do you have 84? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Back to topic, to my unprofessional eye, it looks like it may be looking to phase quicker on the 18z GFS through Hour 63. Agreed, I'm not sure if this is going to get it done this run, but you can see more interaction as early at hour 84 between the two streams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 How do you have 84? I pay for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 At hour 96 the base of the trough is actually in the gulf of Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Looks like a coastal hugger or even an inland runner based on the setup at h5 through hr 99. One consolidated low over Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Light precip over the area Tuesday night with temps below freezing from the city NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Looks like the closest the GFS has come to a phase so far, but I still don't think it's going to be enough. Big run for PA and Interior Upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 The trough actually goes negative tilt at hour 114. Low forms over eastern NC. Coming up the coast. Sub 1000mb low just east of Ocean City, MD hour 114 and east of ACY at 117. Heavy rain over NJ, SE NY and New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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