IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 12z Euro is going to be inches and inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 12z Euro has a big Atlantic ridge. It still has two low solution. But the first low is closer to the coast again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 New forming over Eastern NC 114 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 That initial low is sitting right off the NJ coast at hour 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 I think it has been stated numerous times already that this isn't a threat for NYC & points east. Anyone 30+ miles NW of NYC should be monitoring this. I grew up in your area and I know parts or Orange county average 2 - 2.5X as much snow as the City. Snow is usually more likely to the NW. This threa is no exception. But I think everyone is still in the game 5 days out. Climo and recent guidance suggest certain areas are more likely than others, but the ensemble spread still includes everybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 That initial low is sitting right off the NJ coast at hour 120. heavy rain across NYC metro Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 It's not a perfect setup, but it almost never is. Just looking at the 12z GFS temp profiles. KNYC at hour 120 has a wet bulb temp below 1000mb. That would be snow. Surface temps don't look to increase much during the day with a north wind and limited solar heating. 850mb and esp just above is marginal... but I believe supportive of snow from nyc metro north and west. Rough est from the charts would be about .1 - .6 liquid eq. west to east across the area. I don't love the GFS solution, but I think it depicts accumulating snow for many. And that's pretty exciting for the day before Thanksgiving. I think we could get a closer track without a warmer profile. The cold air is not locked too far to the west. It is not ideally located either. I just don't think this is as hopeless as you seem to describe. Maybe I just have low expectations for snow in general, and so I consider any trackable snow threat kind of exciting. To me, this is a legit threat. I would put probs of >1" of snow for the metro region at somewhere between 10 and 25%. A wetbulb below zero isn't automatically snow. There could be warm layers elsewhere which would mean sleet or non-snow. The flow aloft is SW so that is definitely possible. Other than that, we'll just have to see what happens. The cold air will definitely be limited near the coast without northern stream involvement. This doesn't include areas far inland like the Poconos or Catskills, but up there not much precip may fall if we have a strung out low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 We get brushed by the second low at 132. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 A wetbulb below zero isn't automatically snow. There could be warm layers elsewhere which would mean sleet or non-snow. The flow aloft is SW so that is definitely possible. Other than that, we'll just have to see what happens. The cold air will definitely be limited near the coast without northern stream involvement. This doesn't include areas far inland like the Poconos or Catskills, but up there not much precip may fall if we have a strung out low. You're right. But I looked at the model forecast soundings. The column is below freezing except right at the surface. Not useful or forecasting purposes at this range, but I just wanted to make a point about what the 12z model showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Meh, that initial vort is screwing the pooch and robbing what should be the main low still hung up down south. Once that initial wave develops, it pulls everything east. When the models were initially showing the potential for this 10 days out it had a triple phaser. That would have been much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 We get brushed by the second low at 132. The northern stream is too fast to allow a decent phase, but we pick up some much need rain on this run with the lead wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 It's not a perfect setup, but it almost never is. Just looking at the 12z GFS temp profiles. KNYC at hour 120 has a wet bulb temp below 1000mb. That would be snow. Surface temps don't look to increase much during the day with a north wind and limited solar heating. 850mb and esp just above is marginal... but I believe supportive of snow from nyc metro north and west. Rough est from the charts would be about .1 - .6 liquid eq. west to east across the area. I don't love the GFS solution, but I think it depicts accumulating snow for many. And that's pretty exciting for the day before Thanksgiving. I think we could get a closer track without a warmer profile. The cold air is not locked too far to the west. It is not ideally located either. I just don't think this is as hopeless as you seem to describe. Maybe I just have low expectations for snow in general, and so I consider any trackable snow threat kind of exciting. To me, this is a legit threat. I would put probs of >1" of snow for the metro region at somewhere between 10 and 25%. GFS BUFKIT does support non-accumulating light snow for LGA. There are no hidden warm-layers above the surface despite the SW flow aloft. However, with surface temperatures remaining above freezing and the fact that the lift is pretty weak in the snow growth region, I do not see much support for accumulating snow. With the anafront a couple of weeks ago, there was much better lift in the snow growth zone. In a borderline setup such as this, I definitely want a bit of a closer track to get into the better UVVs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 If you want to believe the Euro we wrap up with some light snow Thanksgiving morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 The northern stream is too fast to allow a decent phase, but we pick up some much need rain on this run with the lead wave. It's the lead vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 The second s/w over Manitoba appears to be a kicker. It's preventing a cleaner phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Seems a good bit of snow in the interior... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 The kicker north of the Dakotas is not allowing the northern stream dig enough for an early enough phase with the southern stream not able to get out front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 If you want to believe the Euro we wrap up with some light snow Thanksgiving morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 This I believe is the NWS thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Seems a good bit of snow in the interior... The Wxbell snow map shows 10"+ for Sussex, Orange and points NE. We all know how overdone those maps are so take it with a grain of salt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Northern stream wave looks like it's too flat and progressive this run and goes out ahead of the southern wave. This causes the lousy, sheared-out appearance we've been seeing. The cold air is also a little more progressive, but little precip where the air is cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 The Wxbell snow map shows 10"+ for Sussex, Orange and points NE. We all know how overdone those maps are so take it with a grain of salt Can you post? If not, how does Putnam look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Can you post? If not, how does Putnam look? Even tho it's highly inaccurate, please post. Sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Even tho it's highly inaccurate, please post. Sigh Its extremely inaccurate lol. Strictly for entertainment purposes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 From Twitter Wrong map. This is the correct one. That one has the wrong algorithm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Wrong map. This is the correct one. That one has the wrong algorithm: whats up with that snow down in VA and MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 whats up with that snow down in VA and MD That's from the second piece moving through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Wrong map. This is the correct one. That one has the wrong algorithm: Thanks... That map actually looks realistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Just a quick question. How do you get a wrapped up low off NJ without a 50/50 low off SE Canada. Thinking an elongated low brushing the coast. Ok taking cover now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Thanks... That map actually looks realistic If you look at the temperature profiles, this would all fall as a very quick front end thump before quickly changing to rain. Anything that falls as the second low scoots by would be very light and the surface would still be warm likely ending in just some flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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