Thanksgiving Week Nor'easter Discussion

[Weathergun]

We need see a strong CCB/deformation zone for accumulating snow near I-95. This could be either be caused by the storm phasing and deepening rapidly or the cold front itself.

[NJHurricane]

A more accurate map:

 

 

Much more reasonable than many of the wishgorithm based maps being slung around social media...and if I had to put money on a forecast map it would look something like that

[Sundog]

We need see a strong CCB/deformation zone for accumulating snow near I-95. This could be either be caused by the storm phasing and deepening rapidly or the cold front itself.

 

One thing we have in our favor is the abundance of cold air to be tapped if we do in fact get a quickly deepening low pressure. 

[96blizz]

GFS is way East of its 0z run. Precip barely makes it to PA/NJ border.

[PB GFI]

GFS is way East of its 0z run. Precip barely makes it to PA/NJ border.

Hr 126 850` all the way to the coast - Colder than its 6z at hour 132 . That's prob snow " if " it`s right .

[Zelocita Weather]

Yup gfs swung east....colder solution for coast but much less precip...if you take the 'mean' of the model spray not a bad overall compromise

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Yup gfs swung east....colder solution for coast but much less precip...if you take the 'mean' of the model spray not a bad overall compromise

Truthfully that's probably a better solution for anyone near the coast wanting snow.

[bluewave]

This run is rain to snow at the coast, but the best UVV's miss offshore so there wouldn't be much accumulation on LI.

[SnoSki14]

Looks like a miss to the east remains on the table.

[IsentropicLift]

Good thing the GFS won't be the final outcome. Model giveth and then model takethaway.

[IsentropicLift]

12z GFS clown maps show zero snow for the tri-state area.

[forkyfork]

Looks like a miss to the east remains on the table.

because the pattern is progressive like i've been saying for the past two days

[SnoSki14]

The cold air source is closer to us on the 12z gfs meaning if the low were to take a nice track and intensify at a good clip then we might see some snow even closer to the coast.

[MJO812]

12z GFS clown maps show zero snow for the tri-state area.

Yep but this run is colder for the coast. Anything is on the table.

[IsentropicLift]

because the pattern is progressive like i've been saying for the past two days

It was a later phase this run. We're probably not going to know the final outcome until Monday.

[Fields27]

I woukdn't exactly hop on this solution. GFS is a different solution almost every run. And probably will be for a day or two more.

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[IsentropicLift]

Yep but this run is colder for the coast. Anything is on the table.

The coast has virtually zero shot of more than a coating. Even the bombing solutions don't show anything more than an inch or two. The real question here is whether or not the NW folks can get anything decent.

[SnoSki14]

because the pattern is progressive like i've been saying for the past two days

 

But progressive really just means things move in and out pretty quickly including any storms, it doesn't mean we can't get a storm up here. It does make phasing more difficult though so a progressive pattern does play a big role. I assume you're completely against the storm. 

[IsentropicLift]

The best outcome would be something like the 00z Euro shows. Heavy rain for the coast and a few inches of plaster well inland. Would break the pattern and help set the stage for the real threat next week.

[IsentropicLift]

But progressive really just means things move in and out pretty quickly including any storms, it doesn't mean we can't get a storm up here. It does make phasing more difficult though so a progressive pattern does play a big role. I assume you're completely against the storm. 

But it does, it's one of the reasons why this is having so much trouble phasing.

[MJO812]

The coast has virtually zero shot of more than a coating. Even the bombing solutions don't show anything more than an inch or two. The real question here is whether or not the NW folks can get anything decent.

I wouldn't say a zero shot. There is so much cold air to tap into if a storm bombs out.

[SnoSki14]

The coast has virtually zero shot of more than a coating. Even the bombing solutions don't show anything more than an inch or two. The real question here is whether or not the NW folks can get anything decent.

 

I actually disagree. If you take the 12z gfs solution but bomb the low or phase faster and bring it further west, then even the coast would be in play for some snow. It's not like there is no cold air in place where we sometimes see coastals in January fail to produce snow even in higher elevations. 

[IsentropicLift]

This is what you call utter crap. You have that lead vort that helps pull everything east and you can clearly see that the two streams aren't phased.

 

[IsentropicLift]

I actually disagree. If you take the 12z gfs solution but bomb the low or phase faster and bring it further west, then even the coast would be in play for some snow. It's not like there is no cold air in place where we sometimes see coastals in January fail to produce snow even in higher elevations. 

If you phase faster it's going to bring it closer to the coast and you're going to torch because you don't have a high to the north supplying CAD.

[SnoSki14]

But it does, it's one of the reasons why this is having so much trouble phasing.

 

That's true, I contradicted myself before. 

[IsentropicLift]

I see only two possible outcomes bringing snow to the coast, the first is less likely and that is that the models are wrong and this phases down in the south like we would normally see in a miller A. Then we would get a bombing low coming up the coast and we could perhaps dynamically cool enough to get snow. The second is that it takes the most perfect track possible where it's just far enough east to get the cold air in and yet have the precip heavy enough. The 12z GFS isn't going to get it done because even though it's a colder solution, the precip is very light.

[SnoSki14]

If you phase faster it's going to bring it closer to the coast and you're going to torch because you don't have a high to the north supplying CAD.

 

Only if you bring the low near the immediate coast we would torch, but not if it's around the BM. It's a Miller A type system where the storm can phase and draw in cold air from the NW, not a Miller B that needs a cold high to its north to maintain CAD as it transfers to the coast. A phased Miller A system would draw in cold air even near the coast.

[KEITH L.I]

I see only two possible outcomes bringing snow to the coast, the first is less likely and that is that the models are wrong and this phases down in the south like we would normally see in a miller A. Then we would get a bombing low coming up the coast and we could perhaps dynamically cool enough to get snow. The second is that it takes the most perfect track possible where it's just far enough east to get the cold air in and yet have the precip heavy enough. The 12z GFS isn't going to get it done because even though it's a colder solution, the precip is very light.

That's true if you look at the GFS OP 5 days out on east coast systems

[IsentropicLift]

Only if you bring the low near the immediate coast we would torch, but not if it's around the BM. It's a Miller A type system where the storm can phase and draw in cold air from the NW, not a Miller B that needs a cold high to its north to maintain CAD as it transfers to the coast. A phased Miller A system would draw in cold air even near the coast.

A low near the benchmark would also keep most of the precip offshore, so pick your poison.

[IsentropicLift]

That's true if you look at the GFS OP 5 days out on east coast systems

As much as I think Forky is a troll, he is right in this case. The pattern is very progressive and it's going to make a snowy solution very difficult. Especially for the I-95 crew east.