WE GOT HIM Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Euro has a 996mb low south of LI at 138hrs. Heavy snow NW of I-95. Mix near the coast. Yea this can go either way at this point, but the trend has been colder. If the low wasn't strung out this run I'm convinced we would all be mostly snow. If the southern branch slows by a few more hours we are in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 0z Euro snowmap has a couple of inches for NYC and a lot of snow for inland areas. They get hammered on this run. How much down this way Anthony? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Going to be interesting to see what the Euro ensembles show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Is there a free place to see the gfs ensembles besides psu or spaghetti maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Is there a free place to see the gfs ensembles besides psu or spaghetti maps? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ewallmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 How much down this way Anthony? Allentown gets near 6 inches on the hi res snow map from the Euro and a little more from the regular version. NYC gets a a couple of inches from the hi res and near 6 inches from the regular map lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Weatherbell 0z Euro Hi-Res snowfall map has 6-12" for NW NJ and north of the Tappen Zee Bridge. 2"-4" for NYC and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ewallmref.html thx man, any where else besides there? There's take forever to load. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Weatherbell 0z Euro Hi-Res snowfall map has 6-12" for NW NJ and north of the Tappen Zee Bridge. Do you have the text soundings of the Euro during the storm for the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Hard to figure why it weakens and strings out after h138, whereas other models deepen it as the phase begins to take place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Do you have the text soundings of the Euro during the storm for the area? Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 A few things. Looking at the maps, the high is in an absolutely terrible position. I do not see how we'd be cold enough with the high out there in the Atlantic. In addition, this track is still doubtful in my book. The Euro trended significantly to the right of where it tracked the storm yesterday 12Z, and now, you have to question whether it might keep on trending further offshore. There is NO blocking for this event/non-event. This system if it comes up the coast or tries to is going to be moving extremely fast. Precipitation amounts as a result could be overdone by the models. What's more, on this run, at 240 hours there is a storm which to me, if it doesn't move to close to us, might have a better shot for somewhere between December 2nd and 4th. For this set-up it appears as though there might be a slight amount of high lattitude blocking and there's a possible 50/50 low setting up there. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 A few things. Looking at the maps, the high is in an absolutely terrible position. I do not see how we'd be cold enough with the high out there in the Atlantic. In addition, this track is still doubtful in my book. The Euro trended significantly to the right of where it tracked the storm yesterday 12Z, and now, you have to question whether it might keep on trending further offshore. There is NO blocking for this event/non-event. This system if it comes up the coast or tries to is going to be moving extremely fast. Precipitation amounts as a result could be overdone by the models. What's more, on this run, at 240 hours there is a storm which to me, if it doesn't move to close to us, might have a better shot for somewhere between December 2nd and 4th. For this set-up it appears as though there might be a slight amount of high lattitude blocking and there's a possible 50/50 low setting up there. WX/PT Great post & I agree, the 240 hour EURO looks like a better shot at a snowstorm because we have a 50/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Gfs is colder through 117 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 The low is still kinda strung out on the gfs...so rain storm again, this run. Without that artic high, like WX said, you need everything perfect to get snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 6z throws even more qpf into western new england lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 from twit, euro snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 No more messing around guys. This thing has got a name now via TWC, Boreas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 If it should turn out to be the case that it will be all rain or out to sea, it should be renamed 'Boreus'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 No more messing around guys. This thing has got a name now via TWC, Boreas! and will end up with the nickname "Boring" Boreas" - with all the indicies in generally unfavorable positions and the fast flow helped by a lack of a negative enough NAO - ole Boring will have difficult time winding up and will more then likely end up a strung out fast flow mess - precip amounts will probably end up quite a bit less then currently advertised as has happend all fall in this type of fast flow. Precip types along the coast will be mainly liquid because of a lack of intensity which is needed in this type of marginal cold set-up and time of year - example: the last 2 years snowfalls in Oct and November had enough precip intensity to create a colder atmosphere for frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 The trend in the 00z has been for a quicker earlier phase. The 00z euro would def change everyone over for a period of snow. The cold air seems to be just to our west, would really like to see the high postion just nw of buffalo. Doubt the coast gets all snow, but that's par for the course this early in season. Interior areas should keep a close eye on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 The trend in the 00z has been for a quicker earlier phase. The 00z euro would def change everyone over for a period of snow. The cold air seems to be just to our west, would really like to see the high postion just nw of buffalo. Doubt the coast gets all snow, but that's par for the course this early in season. Interior areas should keep a close eye on this. Agreed. Seems like this is a classic interior set up where climatology favors it. I'm at 900' in Sussex County and I'm biting my nails on rain vs. snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Agreed. Seems like this is a classic interior set up where climatology favors it. I'm at 900' in Sussex County and I'm biting my nails on rain vs. snow... Beautiful up there! Was in Vernon Valley a few weekends ago with my gf, stayed at Colorado Springs. Had a really good time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Beautiful up there! Was in Vernon Valley a few weekends ago with my gf, stayed at Colorado Springs. Had a really good time Thanks man. We LOVE it here. What I learned last year is that it pretty much always snows on any 'borderline' event here. That's what makes me cautiously optimistic about this event...but it is damn early in the year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 The general feel is that no blocking equals no storm or a messy storm, but that's not always the case. You don't absolutely have to have blocking for a phased storm, but it helps. It certainly prolongs a storm but a ridge out west helps too. That ridge is what is trying to help phase the southern stream so we get a nice storm. I would not be looking at a snow event if I lived near the coast, it's highly unlikely. You would need to storm to deepen faster and be a lot stronger for that to happen. So while blocking isn't required, it definitely helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Euro mean is similiar to the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 I'm not seeing how there can be much snow anywhere near the coast without the northern stream phasing in a lot quicker. Maybe inland there can be a stripe of snow for a while. The best I can see is there being some precip around when the northern stream finally comes in and delivers cold air to the coast. This is where more blocking can really come in handy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 from twit, euro snow A more accurate map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 don't use the weatherbell snow maps. they are wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 don't use the weatherbell snow maps. they are wrong Most snow maps are really bad and inaccurate as most of us know. Idk why people post them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.