WeatherFox Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Wise to be cautious I think. And it's early in the season. But it's not like there is no cold air in the vicinity. And the way this is going... with a strong, slow cutoff, and a fast polar jet... I could see this thing really winding up off NC but being shunted southeast and fulling the polar boundary with it. I think we want a stronger system... just not an early phase. I wouldn't expect a snowstorm. But there is clearly a threat, esp NW of I-95. Okay it's possible as a long shot, weather these past years has seen it's anomalies. You can never say never.. Time will tell. Yes, more likely for snow to the north & west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Man Thanksgiving looks cold on the gfs, probably no higher than 20's for highs, mid teens for lows, and add the gusty winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Wise to be cautious I think. And it's early in the season. But it's not like there is no cold air in the vicinity. And the way this is going... with a strong, slow cutoff, and a fast polar jet... I could see this thing really winding up off NC but being shunted southeast and fulling the polar boundary with it. I think we want a stronger system... just not an early phase. I wouldn't expect a snowstorm. But there is clearly a threat, esp NW of I-95. You don't really want a delay in the evolution with no blocking because that will likely get the cold air in too fast and force the storm offshore, in the absence of the -NAO you want exactly what you say, a stronger system that nearly closes off briefly or does close off bringing the chance of it drawing the cold air in on its own with a changeover to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Wise to be cautious I think. And it's early in the season. But it's not like there is no cold air in the vicinity. And the way this is going... with a strong, slow cutoff, and a fast polar jet... I could see this thing really winding up off NC but being shunted southeast and fulling the polar boundary with it. I think we want a stronger system... just not an early phase. I wouldn't expect a snowstorm. But there is clearly a threat, esp NW of I-95. I think this has always been a threat for the NW crew. Our only concern was if enough precip would get into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 1-1.25" liquid for the entire region. Mostly snow north, mostly rain far south. And I think with that track and a primarily southern stream, QPF might be slightly underdone. Everyone is still in the game at this point. In fact, from this point, it would only take relatively small changes to get a significant snow for the whole metro. I still favor a wave interference scenario with a miss SE. And I tend to think this pulls further NW IF the northern stream turns out to interact more favorably. But this GFS run is pretty close to great for this area. Certainly makes tomorrows model watching more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Which part(s) were false? SnowGoose69 listed some points better than I could have . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 You don't really want a delay in the evolution with no blocking because that will likely get the cold air in too fast and force the storm offshore, in the absence of the -NAO you want exactly what you say, a stronger system that nearly closes off briefly or does close off bringing the chance of it drawing the cold air in on its own with a changeover to snow. Yeah I agree. And I didn't mean that I think we want a later (in time) phase. I meant a phase with the cutoff further east or southeast (but ideally faster overall). The ensemble members with great wave timing that start wrapping the sysem up when the cutoff is near the Miss. river bring rain to western NY. And like you say, those that delay any interaction (or have poor s/w timing), end up with a weak offshore low. Our best bet according to the ensembles is a scenario where the cutoff traverses eastward on the faster end of guidance but with subsequent strong wave interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 The CMC looks like it's going with a decent coastal as well. I can only see through day 5, but extrapolating it looks pretty wet with marginal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 CMC is definitely NW, stronger, and wetter than 12z. Not sure on temps yet. But those details are not too significant at this point. The more consensus we can get on a significant low, the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Wow the cold air is so close...if the system is a little slower or stronger, the coast can be in play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 CMC and GFS actually in pretty good agreement for a 6 day prog. CMC looks a bit faster, wetter, and probably a hair warmer. But mid levels and surface features in reasonable agreement. Nor'easter threat on. Could be a white thanksgiving for the lucky ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 You * me * hundreds of others on here . But this forum adds a great deal to my knowledge base , particularly from the Pro brethern & thats why its the best around IMO.But I wont get my hopes up with this one as the situation is a 3& 17 at the 28 yard line with 1:17 left. Yes there is a chance but its likely under 10-15% . Lets just the pattern in motion & all will fall into place in time. Thanks! Plus Happy Holiday's & Good Luck to all the snow lovers during the upcoming days & months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 NAO is negative for two days in row now, don't know if its west or east based. AO falling since its peak, 21Nov2013 0.18465E+00 -0.28539E+00 -0.73555E+00 -0.40925E+00 ................... AO.................. NAO ............. PNA ................ AAO............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Navy Nogaps is about 1000 miles south of the CMC and GFS. It squashes the cutoff well to the southeast. Opposite end of the spectrum. It's P=probably way too slow with the cutoff progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 00z GGEM looks further west and looks close to an inland runner..but definitely a coastal hugger! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Navy Nogaps is about 1000 miles south of the CMC and GFS. It squashes the cutoff well to the southeast. Opposite end of the spectrum. It's probably way too slow with the cutoff progression. But still near the edge of the ensemble envelope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Euro looking better through 72 - southern stream about 12 hours slower at 92 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Digging hard and going negative @ 120, more amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Nice run, the low is strung out at the surface but it looks pretty cold and the track is good, we just need the northern stream to dig a little more. If that happens this thing is a bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Well I'm 160 miles nnw of the city and I'm worried about rain/snow line with the trends and lack of true phase (to draw cold air into it) soon enough. I think it's just about lights out for snow anywhere near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Heard it looks like the GFS but not as intense... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Well I may eat my words then, but lets see the thermal profile. the GGEM track looks ideal for here, but it has me on the 552 line. hah Nice run, the low is strung out at the surface but it looks pretty cold and the track is good, we just need the northern stream to dig a little more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Heard it looks like the GFS but not as intense... Yep, you heard right. The cold air isn't far away from the coast. The 32 degree line is just to the northwest of the city at 138 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Heard it looks like the GFS but not as intense... DT was right on top of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 For 6 days out, the Euro looks remarkably similar to the GFS and GEM. Of course there are differences, but right now the operational runs are all in the same camp. Great model cycle tonight. Probably the best in 9 months - if you like snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Euro has a 992mb low south of LI at 138hrs. Heavy snow NW of I-95. Mix near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Definitely colder than 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Well I may eat my words then, but lets see the thermal profile. the GGEM track looks ideal for here, but it has me on the 552 line. hah The GGEM buries you. Would drop about 2' of snow. Maybe a short period of mixing on that depiction, but the temp profiles and snow algorithm indicate all or mostly snow. I would be happy with any of the three major mid range model runs tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Definitely colder than 12Z. If this low can bomb out slightly further east, the coast will be in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 0z Euro snowmap has a couple of inches for NYC and a lot of snow for inland areas. They get hammered on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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