Zelocita Weather Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Looks like all models have a size able and wet storm mid thanksgiving week with a good amount of cold air in the vicinity. Certainly a significant rain storm is probable but also some areas may see a few back end flakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Looks like a cold T-day is on tap regardless. It would be nice to have some snow on the ground to go with that, even if it's an inch or two. If we could have snow for Halloween then we could for Thanksgiving. However at 180 hrs out I'm cautiously optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 It's obvious that the step down is continuing into a more winter type pattern towards the end of the month - BUT that's all we can count on at this point -its way to early to get into details about individual storms or non storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Regarding the 06z GFS, precip gets in here as early as Tuesday night. 850's are below freezing region wide but the surface is a bit warm. The banding precip arrives Wed afternoon with temperatures slowly crashing towards the coast. It would likely be a snow to rain to snow verbatim northwest of I-95. Weenie snow maps show a large area of > 4" west of NYC and > 8" greater than 50 miles NW of the city. 00z Euro is faster and more wrapped up than the 06z GFS. It has a sub 992mb low right over the south shore by Wed morning. Heavy rain for all and it's in and out before sunset. 2"+ of rain from the George Washington Bridge east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 20, 2013 Author Share Posted November 20, 2013 Regarding the 06z GFS, precip gets in here as early as Tuesday night. 850's are below freezing region wide but the surface is a bit warm. The banding precip arrives Wed afternoon with temperatures slowly crashing towards the coast. It would likely be a snow to rain to snow verbatim northwest of I-95. Weenie snow maps show a large area of > 4" west of NYC and > 8" greater than 50 miles NW of the city. 00z Euro is faster and more wrapped up than the 06z GFS. It has a sub 992mb low right over the south shore by Wed morning. Heavy rain for all and it's in and out before sunset. 2"+ of rain from the George Washington Bridge east. Can you post the GFS snow map, and does anyone have the EURO snow map, all models are VERY close for this far out it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Can you post the GFS snow map, and does anyone have the EURO snow map, all models are VERY close for this far out it seems. I can not because I get it from a paid site. The Euro is pretty much all rain or mostly rain for all interested parties in this forum. The 06z GFS has all the snow falling as the low departs and temperatures crash towards the coast outside of the areas that are well north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 snow map from the 00z Euro, although to me it looks way overdone for this area based on the thermal profiles. I would personally sign up for this foot of cement in my backyard as modeled. https://twitter.com/SNEWeather/status/403052294616256512/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 The other possible scenario is what the GGEM shows and that is a serious icing issue for some. The surface freezing line on some of the modeling has been well south and east of the 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 snow map from the 00z Euro, although to me it looks way overdone for this area based on the thermal profiles. I would personally sign up for this foot of cement in my backyard as modeled. https://twitter.com/SNEWeather/status/403052294616256512/photo/1 That has like a 15 mile gradient of no snow and 20 inches if snow in eastern mass lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 doesnt the 06z gfs show rain to snow for the city ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 doesnt the 06z gfs show rain to snow for the city ? Yes that is correct. Although it's wrap around moisture at that point which is never reliable. The weenie snow maps have about an inch for the immediate city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 The northern stream wave that eventually phases in looks stronger on the 12z GFS. Should lead to a stronger low than 06z had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 The other possible scenario is what the GGEM shows and that is a serious icing issue for some. The surface freezing line on some of the modeling has been well south and east of the 850mb. You are not going to get icing with a coastal generally, although there are some exceptions (miller B's). This looks like a miller A though so it's either rain or snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 You are not going to get icing with a coastal generally, although there are some exceptions (miller B's). This looks like a miller A though so it's either rain or snow. You could easily get icing in this situation if the low level cold hangs on longer than the mid-levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 So far the northern stream is quicker through hr 147. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Everything looking good so far, going for a quicker phase this run. It's significantly slower than the Euro with the whole evolution. Since the northern stream was faster this run, the antecedent airmass is colder as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 northern stream kills the potential on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 At hour 168 you have a ridge out west centered just east of Idaho which is pretty ideal. You also have a northern stream low that blew up and is sitting in the 50/50 position. Low sitting over the FL Panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 northern stream kills the potential on this run. Think again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 20, 2013 Author Share Posted November 20, 2013 northern stream kills the potential on this run. I woudlnt say that yet....looks like the northern stream energy/low will move into a favorable 50/50 position by the time the southern energy gets going...also looks like more cold air around so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Hour 171 the trough is going negative tilt over the deep south. Closes off at 500bm over northern Georgia at 177. The low out ahead of it makes no sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 I woudlnt say that yet....looks like the northern stream energy/low will move into a favorable 50/50 position by the time the southern energy gets going...also looks like more cold air around so far. He's partially right. That faster progression of the northern stream led to a sloppier phase and that initial low is too far offshore and screws up the pattern a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Think again. This is exactly what happened/ Northern stream cam down much quicker and squashed the potential. You need good timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Hour 171 the trough is going negative tilt over the deep south. Closes off at 500bm over northern Georgia at 177. The low out ahead of it makes no sense to me. it looks like the energy at h5 is spread out with an initial piece further NE which is why there are two surface lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 In this progressive pattern that we've been seeing this definitely has to be seen as a possible outcome. We need to either have a faster ejection of the southern stream which is what the Euro shows or a slower ejection of the northern stream which is what the GFS had been showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 This is exactly what happened/ Northern stream cam down much quicker and squashed the potential. You need good timing. Read my next post, I gave credit where credit was due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 the timing of this needs ot be perfect. If the Northern stream is too quick/strong it will shunt the southern stream out east....if its slower it will allow the southern stream to cut west of us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 20, 2013 Author Share Posted November 20, 2013 I cant see far enough enough out yet to see what happens, but even if it does miss south verbatim this run I am not unhappy with: Abundant cold air around 50/50 low strong southern energy with a strong trough and a favorable ridge position out west If it misses, it misses, but for late Nov having the chance with all these things in place is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 This is just another solution in the bundle of solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 I cant see far enough enough out yet to see what happens, but even if it does miss south verbatim this run I am not unhappy with: Abundant cold air around 50/50 low strong southern energy with a strong trough and a favorable ridge position out west If it misses, it misses, but for late Nov having the chance with all these things in place is nice. This run is a swing and a miss, but it's not something that looks worrisome and is hopefully not the start of a trend. It's going to be a few more days at least until that northern stream gets properly sampled. Exactly when that cut off low opens up is critical as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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