Weekend winter storm

[Srain]

From Nesdis:

 

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 11/21/13 2224Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 2200Z KUSSELSON
NOAA AMSU:1636Z 1911Z 2050Z
.
LOCATION...ARKANSAS...E TEXAS...SE OKLAHOMA...
.
ATTN WFOS...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...FRONT BEGINNING TO SLAM INTO DEEP MOISTURE AND TRANSPORT FROM
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR INCREASING RAIN NE TEXAS INTO SE OK AND SW
ARKANSAS...CONVECTION SE TEXAS AND C/E ARKANSAS PRIMING THAT AREA FOR
LATER ON...
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...EXCEPTIONAL MOISTURE FOR NOVEMBER AS
PER LATEST GPS VALUES EASTERN TEXAS AND SPILLING INTO ARKANSAS...SE
OKLAHOMA AND LOUISIANA AND BLENDED TPW SHOWING EXPANSION OF DEEP MOISTURE
NORTHEAST ACROSS C ARKANSAS INTO SE MO AND  WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
ALONG WITH INCREASING VALUES AND AREAL EXTENT OF DEEP MOISTURE...MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WAS VERY GOOD FROM YUCATAN/SW GULF OF MEXICO INTO SE/E  TEXAS
AND TAKING THAT DEEP MOISTURE INTO SE OK...W LA AND ARKANSAS.   SO THE
MOISTURE PUMP IS WORKING OVERTIME THESE AREAS AS MOISTURE WELL ABOVE 170
PERCENT OF NORMAL AND IN SOME AREAS WELL ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMO AND JUST AT THE TIME VERY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW CROSSING NW
TEXAS...S CENTRAL TO E CENTRAL TEXAS AND NW ARKANSAS IS ABOUT TO MEET UP
WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE.  ALREADY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ACROSS SE TO INTERIOR
E CENTRAL/NE TEXAS PRODUCING LOCALLY HVY RAINS.  WALLER...BRAZOS...
LEON...W HARRIS COUNTY AREAS OF LOCALLY HVY RAINS.   FRONTAL BAND AS IT
APPROACHES VERY HIGH MOISTURE ALSO STARTING SHOW SOME COOLER TOPS ACROSS
N CENTRAL TEXAS/S CENTRAL OK AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN INCREASE IN
BOTH AREL COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS AS FRONT PENETRATES FURTHER INTO UNUSUALLY
HIGH MOISTURE AND TRANSPORT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2215-0115Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN BOTH AREA AND AMOUNTS OF
RAIN N CENTRAL TO INTERIOR NE TEXAS AND SE OKLAHOMA INTO SW ARKANSAS.
FRONT WILL KEEP SETTLING SOUTH AND SE ACROSS N AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...SE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS FOR THAT INCREASE IN BOTH AREA AND AMOUNTS.
WITH PWATS MAXING OUT AT  1.75" AND FURTHER INCRG NEXT 3HRS...MAX RAIN
RATES COULD INCREASE TO 1.5"/HR AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PENETRATE FURTHER
INTO DEEP MOISTURE.    FLOW AS PER GOES WATER VAPOR WEST TO WEST/SW...SO
FRONT WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW BUT STEADY AND PUSHING S AND SE BASED ON
COLD AIR PUSH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
PROBABLY AFTER THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON AREAS CURRENTLY
RECEIVING LOCALLY HVY RAIN...IE INTERIOR SE AND NE TEXAS AND C TO
INTERIOR EASTERN ARKANSAS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THAT COULD HEIGHTEN
FF THREAT.
.
 

[brettjrob]

Well, the icing potential over the next 36 hours should be minor, so I'm beginning to look more at the Sunday-Monday timeframe when the upper low kicks out. The potential is there for a wet snow event, which is my favorite kind (and a bit of a rarity around these parts). However, with the slower GFS solution, airmass modification would mean that p-type isn't a slam dunk and could hinge on diurnal timing. A simple average of the NAM and GFS would suggest the potential for 4-8" centered on NW TX into SW OK, but I think that's being far too generous to the NAM in light of its likely performance tonight/tomorrow. Still, I like the chances for the first flakes of the season over much of N TX and OK, with some accumulations likely.

[Srain]

Winter Storm Watch issued for Dallas/Ft Worth Metroplex Sunday night into Monday for up to an inch of sleet. There is a chance of a transition to snow as the thermal profiles are very close as the U/L trough approaches Monday. Winter Weather Advisory issued for the Hill Country NW of Austin and San Antonio for tonight into Saturday.

[aggiegeog]

I am excited to find this forum. Temps in the lower 40s with light rain this morning in the Tyler area. The front came through my place north of Lindale right around midnight with some pretty good thunder. It will be interesting to see how far east the frozen precip gets Sunday night. Right now it appears to be a typical north of I-30 threat with north of I-20 being marginal. 

[Srain]

Morning forecast from Meteorologist Jeff L (Harris County Flood Control District):

 

 

Lots going on this morning….

 

Arctic boundary is blasting through SE TX currently. Temperature is 46 at College Station with NW Winds gusting to 26 while it is 74 at Sugar Land. Front is making very good progress and will be off the coast by late morning/noon. High temperatures will be in the next few hours and then it will be a quick drop into the low 50’s as the front passes and into the 40’s by afternoon under strong NW winds and cloudy conditions with continued periods of rainfall. Line of thunderstorms has developed along the front producing a quick bout of heavy rainfall and gusty winds. The area will likely not see high temperatures above 60 again until possibly Thanksgiving day.

 

Tonight-Saturday night:

 

Arctic cold dome builds into TX with temperatures hovering in the 40’s and 30’s through this period. Upstream SW flow aloft will provide a few disturbances to ride up and over the surface cold air producing periods of rain and showers through Saturday. Increasingly drier air will filter SW into the region from the NE helping to end rainfall from the NE by late Saturday. Temperatures should remain above freezing across our entire area through this period so everything should be liquid. Ice could be a problem NW of a line from Fort Worth to Waco starting this afternoon.

 

Sunday-Monday:

 

Major winter storm heading for TX with significant impacts likely

 

Large upper level storm system will lift into the state out of the SW US late this weekend with cold air locked in place. The result will be a variety of liquid/freezing/frozen precipitation across a large part of TX from Sunday into Monday.

 

SE TX:

 

Coastal low will form late Sunday off the lower TX coast in response to large scale lift arriving from the west. This low will sling copious moisture northward into SE TX by afternoon with cloud decks lowering and thickening. Surface layer will dry out Saturday evening and then moisten again on Sunday. Expect to see rainfall develop from SW to NE late in the day and overspread much of the region Sunday night into Monday morning and jet dynamics and lift are increased. I am concerned with the P-type onset of the precipitation Sunday night north of a line from Brenham to Conroe to Livingston. With dry air in place below the cloud base layer there could be just enough wet bulb cooling to allowing a shrinking warm nose in the mid layer to allow onset as sleet. Other concern is surface temperatures in the mid 30’s north of the above mentioned line which with some evaporative cooling could drop to near freezing allowing for some freezing rain. Still too early to be confident in anything this far out, but there is a chance of some frozen/freezing precp. Monday morning north of a Brenham to Conroe to Livingston line. South of this line all rainfall will remain liquid as temperatures will hold in the upper 30’s to near 40 on Monday under widespread rainfall. Could even deal will some heavy rainfall along and south of US 59 depending on exactly where the coastal low tracks.

 

Tides could also become a problem on Monday as the pressure gradient really intensifies over the NW Gulf and strong ENE to NE winds push water toward the coast.

 

NC TX/Hill Country/NW TX:

 

Major winter storm expected with accumulations of ice and sleet. Onset of precipitation along and west of I-35 (Dallas to Waco area and then WSW into the Hill Country) on Sunday will be likely in the form of widespread sleet falling into a surface layer at or below freezing. Soundings suggest a prolonged sleet/freezing rain event from Sunday into midday Monday with some significant accumulations possible. NAM is showing significant snowfall in this area, but likely has the incorrect P-type as the forecast soundings show a defined warm nose and a fairly classic sleet profile. If the warm nose is a little deeper then the main result could be freezing rain and significant ice buildup. The most likely event at this point is likely a combination of sleet and freezing rain mix resulting in a crusty and heavy glazing of bridges and overpasses. Many trees still have foliage and icing will result in problems with trees and power lines. Not confident yet on ice/sleet accumulations, but some of the guidance is yielding upwards of an inch of sleet/ice mix in this region which would be a very significant ice storm event.

 

Tuesday-Thanksgiving:

 

Coastal and upper level storm move eastward with drying across the state, but still cold conditions. Should see clearing skies on Wednesday, but clouds may already start to return on Thanksgiving Day with continued cold conditions on lows in the 30’s and highs in the 50’s.  

 

Note:

 

Persons with travel plans to the N and NW of SE TX this weekend should be fully aware of the potential winter storm impacts which will linger well into early next week. Numerous watches and advisories will be issued today to cover the various coming impacts. As with all winter weather events, the forecast will change and considering we are still about 48 hours from the onset of the event there remains a fair degree of uncertainty.

 

The following products have been issued west of a line from Dallas to west of Waco to Del Rio:

 

Winter Storm Watch

Winter Weather Advisory

Freezing Rain Advisory

 

[NJ_Ken]

The freezing drizzle in the OKC area overnight fizzled,  I wasn't watching closely, but, in my backyard, it seemed like the moment we got down to freezing last night, the drizzle stopped.  In any case, we are solidly below freezing right now (it was 28 F according to my car which is usually surprisingly accurate and dewpoints in the area appear to be in low 20s and high teens) and some echoes seem to be moving our way from the southwest so maybe we will see something frozen before the day is out... if not, well, on to Sunday.       

[aggiegeog]

Not gonna happen, but the 12Z NAM goes crazy with over a foot of snow for me. Other models seem more likely showing mixed precip.

[LocoAko]

The freezing drizzle in the OKC area overnight fizzled,  I wasn't watching closely, but, in my backyard, it seemed like the moment we got down to freezing last night, the drizzle stopped.  In any case, we are solidly below freezing right now (it was 28 F according to my car which is usually surprisingly accurate and dewpoints in the area appear to be in low 20s and high teens) and some echoes seem to be moving our way from the southwest so maybe we will see something frozen before the day is out... if not, well, on to Sunday.

Norman seems pretty bullish on freezing rain being the name of the game this afternoon in Central OK.

[Srain]

Folks in Wichita Falls could see some sleet soon. Dyess AFB reported accumulating sleet a bit earlier.

[Srain]

Ice Storm Warning issued for portions of LUB WFO.

[LocoAko]

Fun!

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2035

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1000 AM CST FRI NOV 22 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN-CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 221600Z - 222000Z

SUMMARY...MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS SWRN

INTO CNTRL OK INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

DISCUSSION...SUBTLE WEAK WARM ADVECTION ATOP ARCTIC ANTICYCLONE

APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR RASH OF POST FRONTAL SHOWERS

EVOLVING ACROSS NORTH TX INTO SRN OK. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS A

MORE CONCENTRATED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS HAS EVOLVED OVER NWRN TX/SWRN

OK. MEAN FLOW WOULD FAVOR THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING NEWD ALONG/JUST

NORTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR INTO CNTRL OK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL

HOURS.

12 SOUNDINGS FROM OUN/AMA/MAF ALL EXHIBIT A VERY WARM LAYER THAT

WILL ENSURE AT LEAST A MIXED PHASE OF PRECIPITATION.

ADDITIONALLY...WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY RESIDES ACROSS NWRN TX AND

THIS WILL ENCOURAGE DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THAT MAY PRODUCE

LOCALLY HEAVIER PRECIP RATES. LATEST WINTER ALGORITHMS SUGGEST ICE

PELLETS WILL BE COMMON EARLY ACROSS SWRN OK BUT FREEZING RAIN MAY

BECOME MORE DOMINANT BY AFTERNOON FARTHER EAST WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER

IS NOT AS COOL AS POINTS WEST.

WHILE MORE CONCENTRATED CORRIDOR FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE

ALONG/JUST NORTH OF I-44...AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION ACROSS NWRN TX

SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT/DEVELOP INTO SRN OK BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS

EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. HEAVIEST PRECIP RATES

COULD EXCEED .05 INCHES PER HOUR.

..DARROW.. 11/22/2013

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

[Srain]

Accumulating sleet reported in Lubbock. Roads are becoming a mess.

[NJ_Ken]

That looks like a semi-impressive blob of frozen precipitation heading toward OKC.  Presumably, the heavier echos are just sleet pellets, but it still looks like a few hours of something semi-steady and frozen in these parts... especially the north side of OKC, which looks to get the maxima of whatever happens to be in that blob.   

[Ed Lizard]

 

Just looking at NAM, Austin is less than 1ºC from the mother of ice storms.  And unlike Dallas, if we can cool it down that 1ºC, it would be subcooled rain, not sleet, and the trees and powerlines would mean no classes Monday at The University of Texas.

 

From Texas thread...

[LocoAko]

Freezing rain now spreading through the metro.

[dljuly3]

29 and falling as we wet bulb a bit here in Norman. Freezing rain currently at my place. It's seems to be falling at that very light clip perfect for building it up on surfaces. Hopefully it doesn't last too long, though it seems precip is building in to our SW now. Could be an interesting afternoon.

 

SREF is still pretty consistent with snow over the Norman area Sunday night into Monday. All but one model puts out at least an inch as of latest run with a mean of about 5, though the spread is still huge. 

[brettjrob]

HRRR has been consistent this morning in expanding the OK precipitation shield and translating ESE through the remainder of the day. Total accumulations of 0.1-0.3" across the metro if it is to be believed. Freezing rain alone rarely accumulates on roadways here (nevermind in November), but mixing with PL could make the evening rush hour a nightmare if and where those accumulations verify.

[NJ_Ken]

I am in downtown OKC and we have been getting a steady mixture of sleet and freezing rain since around noon.  It is not particularly heavy but, if we get enough sleet on the ground, it could make it easier for the freezing rain to start accreting. 

[LocoAko]

Iced in at the National Weather Center.

From pictures I'm seeing on Facebook there seems to be a solid glaze around town, too. Seeing pictures of frozen cars at Fowler Honda.

[dljuly3]

Yeah, I've got a good glaze on everything around here in east Norman. News9 is reporting accidents all over the place, including several on 35, 44, and 40.

[DFWWeather]

Current temp at DFW Airport is 35°F (dewpoint 32°F) with sleet falling. Interesting!

[Srain]

Active afternoon across Texas and Oklahoma. Many reports are beginning to come in across Central Texas, mainly in the Hill Country from Kerrville on ENE of some light accumulation freezing rain. Also Lubbock has extended their Ice Storm Warning as travel conditions deteriorate and now reports NW of Ft Worth of sleet and freezing rain. The afternoon Updated Freezing Rain Possibility/Percentages Forecasts are out from the HPC/WPC suggesting a much wider area of concern and increasing chances across the I-35 Corridor and extending closer to portions of SE Texas. It is also noteworthy that the W to E spread now includes portions of NE Mexico into NW Louisiana and Arkansas.

[ouamber]

Freezing Rain/Sleet falling at a steady pace here on the north side of Tulsa.  33 now.

[1900hurricane]

I'm personally recording 41*F at my place right now, which is slightly colder than CLL's 43*F. Forecast wise, HGX continues to push temps down in my area, with Monday not even expected to reach 40*F (and with 90% chance of rain). It's also been rainy on and off with some elevated convection springing up and passing through. It's interesting to note that HGX is now starting to mention the possibility of freezing rain in forecast graphics. Regardless, it looks to be a very interesting weekend meteorologically, but a very miserable one physically.

 

[Srain]

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
413 PM EST FRI NOV 22 2013

VALID 00Z SAT NOV 23 2013 - 00Z TUE NOV 26 2013

...DAYS 1-3...

GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING JUST OFF OF THE SOUTHWEST
COAST IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...REACHING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MID-DAY MON. GIVEN THE
CURRENT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ALREADY IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...IT
APPEARS A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM IS ON TAP FOR THE SOUTH...WITH A
FOCUS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.

THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT OVERALL BUT THE FORECAST WAS
WEIGHTED MOST TOWARD THE 12Z NAM/GFS AND 00Z ECMWF WITH THE TRACK
OF THE UPPER LOW AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR. THE 09Z SREF MEAN WAS
USED OVER THE COMPLEX TERRAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST IN ADDITION TO
THE NAM...BUT THE SREF WAS WEIGHTED LESS FROM SUN-MON GIVEN THE
BROAD NATURE OF ITS LIGHT TO MODERATE QPF.

FROM TONIGHT INTO SAT EVENING...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE WITH THE
CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST WITH STRONGLY DIFLUENT FLOW
IMPACTING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SNOWFALL HERE WILL BE ELEVATION
DEPENDENT WITH SNOW LEVELS ONLY DOWN TO ABOUT 6000 FT - 7000 FT
FOR THE MOGOLLON RIM IN ARIZONA...BUT AN INITIALLY ROBUST STREAM
OF MOISTURE WILL BE SURGING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS MOISTURE
STREAM WEAKENS AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND DURING THE DAY ON SAT BUT
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TIED TO THE UPPER LOW AND LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE SHOULD FAVOR LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS INTO THE WASATCH
OF UTAH AND SAN JUANS OF COLORADO. A COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW
INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BUT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT A
MIXTURE OF SNOW/ICE TO MAINLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ACROSS TEXAS AND NEW
MEXICO.

FROM SAT EVENING INTO SUN EVENING...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF A 700 MB LOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
ELONGATE AND PERHAPS OPEN UP BY 00Z/25. UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE COLD AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY SLEET AND 0.25 INCH ICE ACCUMULATION LIKELY WITH
A PROMINENT WARM NOSE CENTERED NEAR 750 MB AND COLD LAYER FIRMLY
IN PLACE VIA NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS FROM
48 HOURS AGO APPEAR TO BE POORLY RESOLVED WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF
COLD AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS WEST TEXAS...BUT IT IS NOT
CLEAR IF THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE SHORT RANGE WITH
TODAYS NAM/GFS. IT WAS GENERALLY NOTED THAT THE NAM WAS COLDER IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTH THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT
THIS DIFFERENCE WAS SPLIT IN THE FORECAST THINKING IN AN ATTEMPT
TO MITIGATE THE KNOWN COLD BIAS IN THE NAM.

FROM SUN EVENING TO MON EVENING...REMNANT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE BENEATH THE COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF THE UPPER LOW
BUT THE MOISTURE SOURCE WILL BE SHUNTED EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS. LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE THE BIG QUESTION MARK FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH THE NAM/SREF DEPICTING 24 HR ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF .50 TO 1.0
INCH FROM THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY TOWARD THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF
DALLAS/FORT WORTH. THIS APPEARS OVERDONE BUT THE MODELS HAVE GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A .50 TO 1.5 INCH STRIPE OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN
THE 24 HRS ENDING 00Z/26 ACROSS TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA...WITH THE
NORTHERN EDGE CO-LOCATED WITH A DEFINED WARM NOSE ATOP A DEFINED
SUB-FREEZING LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. QUESTIONS OF THE DEPTH
OF THE COLD DOME AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE STAYING BELOW FREEZING TO
SUPPORT ICE EXIST. PROBABILITIES REFLECT A LOW-MED CHANCE OF 0.25
INCHES OF ICE...WITH SLEET AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT SNOW FARTHER NORTH
TOWARD THE RED RIVER AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS FOR DAY 3.
 

[Srain]

EWX will issue a Winter Storm Watch for the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country prior to Sunday into Monday.

[Srain]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
417 PM CST FRI NOV 22 2013

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-230600-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...ASHDOWN...HOPE...
PRESCOTT...TEXARKANA...LEWISVILLE...MAGNOLIA...EL DORADO...
SHREVEPORT...BOSSIER CITY...MINDEN...HOMER...RUSTON...
FARMERVILLE...MANSFIELD...COUSHATTA...BIENVILLE...JONESBORO...
MONROE...MANY...NATCHITOCHES...WINNFIELD...COLFAX...COLUMBIA...
JENA...IDABEL...CLARKSVILLE...MT VERNON...MT PLEASANT...
PITTSBURG...DAINGERFIELD...ATLANTA...QUITMAN...GILMER...
JEFFERSON...TYLER...LONGVIEW...MARSHALL...RUSK...HENDERSON...
CARTHAGE...NACOGDOCHES...CENTER...LUFKIN...SAN AUGUSTINE...
HEMPHILL
417 PM CST FRI NOV 22 2013

...WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE FOUR
STATE REGION MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...

A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE REGION AND COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING.

WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE COLD AIR THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUNDAY
MORNING AND EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET
OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 30 WHILE
LIQUID RAIN IS EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY EVENING...A TRANSITION TO A
MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED NORTH A LINE FROM MINEOLA TEXAS
TO EL DORADO ARKANSAS. A MIXTURE OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND
SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS A LINE FROM TYLER
TEXAS...TO SHREVEPORT AND FARMERVILLE LOUISIANA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM ENOUGH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR A TRANSITION TO ALL
LIQUID RAIN.

SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...AND NORTHEAST TEXAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN
INCH. THE GREATEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN A TENTH OF
INCH...ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS EAST TEXAS WEST OF A LINE FROM
MINEOLA TO LONGVIEW.

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING PRECIPITATION
TYPE...AMOUNT...AND DURATION. WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY CONTINUE
LONGER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED IF TEMPERATURES FAIL TO WARM AS
QUICKLY AS ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WHICH WOULD AFFECT
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS.

THIS WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS STILL EVOLVING. AS MORE INFORMATION
BECOMES AVAILABLE...THE FORECAST MAY CHANGE.
RESIDENTS...TRAVELLERS...AND ANYONE WITH INTERESTS IN THE FOUR
STATE REGION SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.

 

[1900hurricane]

First Winter Storm Warnings have been issued in Texas by NWS Lubbock.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
412 PM CST FRI NOV 22 2013

...WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CRAWL
EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE EXITING THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME AS THE STORM SYSTEM BEGINS
SPREADING VERY MOIST AIR ALOFT. THIS PROCESS WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SLEET EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...
TRANSITIONING MORE TOWARDS MODERATE AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...
AND SNOW BY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL BE MOST
FAVORED ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MOST FAVORED FROM THE
EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS. BUT MULTIPLE
TYPES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ALL AREAS.

TXZ021>024-027>029-033>044-230615-
/O.UPG.KLUB.WS.A.0004.131123T1200Z-131126T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KLUB.WS.W.0003.131124T0000Z-131125T1200Z/
/O.EXT.KLUB.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-131124T0000Z/
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-
LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-
STONEWALL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRIONA...BOVINA...DIMMITT...HART...
TULIA...SILVERTON...QUITAQUE...MULESHOE...LITTLEFIELD...OLTON...
PLAINVIEW...MORTON...LEVELLAND...LUBBOCK...SLATON...WOLFFORTH...
CROSBYTON...RALLS...DICKENS...SPUR...GUTHRIE...PLAINS...
DENVER CITY...BROWNFIELD...TAHOKA...ODONNELL...POST...JAYTON...
ASPERMONT
412 PM CST FRI NOV 22 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM CST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY. THE WINTER
STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET...SNOW...AND
FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF EARLY MONDAY. LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE AND
SLEET ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT...PROLONGED SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
THE PRECIPITATION OFF AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN
ROADS BECOMING VERY SLICK. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE QUARTER OF
AN INCH ORE MORE AND SNOWFALL OF 4 INCHES OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE.

* OTHER IMPACTS...THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH MANY SERIOUS MOTOR VEHICLE
ACCIDENTS. IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND ROAD CONDITIONS AND
BE PREPARED TO POSTPONE OR CANCEL TRAVEL ALTOGETHER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS
OR IMPOSSIBLE. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...
KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN
CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

ALSO...ENSURE WATER SPRINKLER SYSTEMS ARE TURNED OFF AS
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

[DoctorMu]

I'm personally recording 41*F at my place right now, which is slightly colder than CLL's 43*F. Forecast wise, HGX continues to push temps down in my area, with Monday not even expected to reach 40*F (and with 90% chance of rain). It's also been rainy on and off with some elevated convection springing up and passing through. It's interesting to note that HGX is now starting to mention the possibility of freezing rain in forecast graphics. Regardless, it looks to be a very interesting weekend meteorologically, but a very miserable one physically.

 

 

Sunday night could be very interesting.  Usually, I'm skeptical of much frozen mischief south of Hearne, but the timing could be just right...

[LocoAko]

Nice glaze here in Norman and still coming down. No idea how much we've actually gotten but clearing the car hasn't been fun.