Rainshadow Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 The GFS has been ramping up its forecast wind fields and is coming closer (its about 10 mph less as of the 00z/06z runs) to levels of November 1st. I was on mids during that event and the squall line pretty much ignored the more stable air mass that was present on our side of the Appalachians below 850mb. The HRRR worked pretty well that night, even showed it falling apart entering into NJ. Anyhoo, something to watch out for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Tony, What can be expected from a low topped convective system? High wind gusts, brief heavy rain, and little in the way lightning/thunder I'm guessing? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 It will be interesting to see if the Philly area can experience some severe weather or at least a period of wind advisory type winds as the front approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Timing looks to be around sunrise. Could be two periods of strong winds. 1. With the convective line along the front. 2. Prime mixing hours Monday afternoon behind the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 16, 2013 Author Share Posted November 16, 2013 Tony, What can be expected from a low topped convective system? High wind gusts, brief heavy rain, and little in the way lightning/thunder I'm guessing? Thanks! Yes. It is still slightly weaker in terms of raw wind vs November 1st, so it will be interesting to see if the line can scoff at our lack of instability again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Yes. It is still slightly weaker in terms of raw wind vs November 1st, so it will be interesting to see if the line can scoff at our lack of instability again. Is it me, or do we see our fair share of frpa in the east PA/ NJ in the 6-9AM hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 17, 2013 Author Share Posted November 17, 2013 Is it me, or do we see our fair share of frpa in the east PA/ NJ in the 6-9AM hours? I dont know, but it does feel that way. Our senior service hydrologist also believes most of the flooding seems to start during those hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Well slight risk for us. High Risk in Ohio valley with 30% Tornado Probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 17, 2013 Author Share Posted November 17, 2013 3 am to 6 am Monday morning, the simulated radars look similar to the 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 NWS Mt.Holly briefing package Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 may have a weather wake up during the night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Gust to 53 mph at Lancaster AP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 53 mph gust at Reading AP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 53 mph gust at Mount Pocono AP... seems to be a common theme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Some wind and rain around 3AM - 0.13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 .15" in the bucket, a pittance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAPPG Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 .14 here 34mph gust(7ft off ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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