Low topped squall line/strong wind threat

[weatherwiz]

After ridging will plague the central and eastern United States through the weekend by Saturday a vigorous trough will be working into the western tier of the United States.  As this trough progresses eastward it will allow ridging across the eastern tier of the country to build even more, thus Sunday and perhaps Monday may be the warmest days of this mild period.  

 

As the trough advances eastward, strong moisture advection will surge northward ahead of the trough/strong Arctic front as dewpoints climb well into the 50's.  As the strong trough continues to sharpen and deepen winds aloft associated with the system will continue to increase as well, especially the low-level jet.  Late Sunday computer forecast models are showing a strengthening low-level jet working into New England from the southwest associated with a secondary warm front.  This will work to transport moisture advection into the region and with strengthening lift, showers should develop across the region during the late afternoon/early evening hours.  With a warm low level airmass in place, and strengthening low level winds fields, winds also may become quite gusty at times until the cold front passes sometime later during the day on Monday.  When the front passes winds will quickly shift from the south/southwest to northwest ushering a much colder airmass.  

 

With computer models showing such a strong system with a great deal of forcing and lift, a low topped convective squall line is expected to develop across the Ohio Valley region and then propagate eastward with the advancing trough/front.  While instability will be rather limited, there may be just enough instability in place thanks to above-average temperatures, higher dewpoints relative to the time of the year, and pretty cold mid-level temperatures aloft.  

 

While winds will be quite gusty within the warm sector, and convective elements could certainly draw down some stronger winds aloft creating the potential for some isolated tree damage/power outages.  The best potential woul  be across western sections of SNE.  

 

 

[OceanStWx]

After ridging will plague the central and eastern United States through the weekend by Saturday a vigorous trough will be working into the western tier of the United States.  As this trough progresses eastward it will allow ridging across the eastern tier of the country to build even more, thus Sunday and perhaps Monday may be the warmest days of this mild period.  

 

As the trough advances eastward, strong moisture advection will surge northward ahead of the trough/strong Arctic front as dewpoints climb well into the 50's.  As the strong trough continues to sharpen and deepen winds aloft associated with the system will continue to increase as well, especially the low-level jet.  Late Sunday computer forecast models are showing a strengthening low-level jet working into New England from the southwest associated with a secondary warm front.  This will work to transport moisture advection into the region and with strengthening lift, showers should develop across the region during the late afternoon/early evening hours.  With a warm low level airmass in place, and strengthening low level winds fields, winds also may become quite gusty at times until the cold front passes sometime later during the day on Monday.  When the front passes winds will quickly shift from the south/southwest to northwest ushering a much colder airmass.  

 

With computer models showing such a strong system with a great deal of forcing and lift, a low topped convective squall line is expected to develop across the Ohio Valley region and then propagate eastward with the advancing trough/front.  While instability will be rather limited, there may be just enough instability in place thanks to above-average temperatures, higher dewpoints relative to the time of the year, and pretty cold mid-level temperatures aloft.  

 

While winds will be quite gusty within the warm sector, and convective elements could certainly draw down some stronger winds aloft creating the potential for some isolated tree damage/power outages.  The best potential woul  be across western sections of SNE.

 

 

      EVENTUALLY...THOUGH...ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL   LINE WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS BECOMING THE MOST PROMINENT   SEVERE THREAT.  IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS COULD   PROGRESS INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND NORTHEAST LATE   SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT THIS IS STILL TOO UNCERTAIN TO   DELINEATE A REGIONAL SEVERE RISK AREA EAST OF THAT CURRENTLY   DEPICTED.  THEREAFTER...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER   OF THE PERIOD APPEARS LOW.

[weatherwiz]

 

      EVENTUALLY...THOUGH...ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL   LINE WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS BECOMING THE MOST PROMINENT   SEVERE THREAT.  IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS COULD   PROGRESS INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND NORTHEAST LATE   SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT THIS IS STILL TOO UNCERTAIN TO   DELINEATE A REGIONAL SEVERE RISK AREA EAST OF THAT CURRENTLY   DEPICTED.  THEREAFTER...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER   OF THE PERIOD APPEARS LOW.

 

I love seeing that this time of year  

[eyewall]

We need to get Weatherwiz on a Great Plains chase

[weatherwiz]

We need to get Weatherwiz on a Great Plains chase

 

That would be so much fun

[New England Storm]

I knew we would have a thread on this. Would be nice to have one last low top event to keep an eye on.

[HoarfrostHubb]

That would be so much fun

We should set up a Kickstart for you

[weatherwiz]

We should set up a Kickstart for you

 

I may never want to return

 

 

In my perfect world, I would live here from November through March, OK from April until June, then back here late June through August, then back in OK Sept-Nov

[Damage In Tolland]

How potentially damaging does this look?

[weatherwiz]

How potentially damaging does this look?

 

This won't be any more special than our typical low topped events.  Winds within the warm sector will be quite gusty regardless, 30-40 mph gusts at times but with the fine line, there will be a few isolated 50+ gusts which may result in some isolated tree damage/power outages.  

[OceanStWx]

This won't be any more special than our typical low topped events.  Winds within the warm sector will be quite gusty regardless, 30-40 mph gusts at times but with the fine line, there will be a few isolated 50+ gusts which may result in some isolated tree damage/power outages.  

 

 

 

Pretty favorable surge of higher theta-e air into SNE Monday afternoon, right in line with the strongest forcing from the right entrance region. Plenty of LLJ left to tap, with 700 mb winds around 80 knots.

[Damage In Tolland]

I envision one of those deals a few weeks back with severe warnings flying and no lightning

[OceanStWx]

I envision one of those deals a few weeks back with severe warnings flying and no lightning

 

Lightning is definitely not likely in this set up. There is some elevated instability, but not enough for a widespread thunderstorms kind of deal.

[CT Rain]

Lightning is definitely not likely in this set up. There is some elevated instability, but not enough for a widespread thunderstorms kind of deal.

 

Yeah showalter indicies drop below zero around here by 12z Monday. Winds just off the deck aren't overly impressive and there's a pretty stout inversion. 

 

Not expecting much of anything out of this setup besides a decent downpour. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Lightning is definitely not likely in this set up. There is some elevated instability, but not enough for a widespread thunderstorms kind of deal.

BOX on board

http://ow.ly/i/3Km39

[moneypitmike]

How potentially damaging does this look?

 

Devastating.

[weatherwiz]

Slight Risk!!!!!!!!

 

[Christina311]

Devastating.

 

"Never forget"

[Saber]

http://www.broadcastify.com/listen/feed/2907/web

[moneypitmike]

This is from Washington, IL.  What a tremendous picture--unfortunately at such cost.

 

 

[ROOSTA]

 

 

NOVEMBER?

Sad that these moved so fast people did not have time to react.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Man is it gonna be a wild time in SNE predawn with warnings flying with high winds and squall line

[CT Rain]

Man is it gonna be a wild time in SNE predawn with warnings flying with high winds and squall line

 

I'm not expecting much of anything right now. 

[CoastalWx]

EF4 possibly higher in mid November and I'm lucky to have a CG 1/2SM mile away in July.

[Damage In Tolland]

I'm not expecting much of anything right now.

I don't know. Some modeling seem to have a pretty intense line come thru. Maybe a few gusts over 50 here and there like 4-5 am

[HoarfrostHubb]

Tim Kelly thinking gusts approaching 40mph

[HoarfrostHubb]

EF4 possibly higher in mid November and I'm lucky to have a CG 1/2SM mile away in July.

DT calling this the biggest Nov outbreak since 2002

[CoastalWx]

DT calling this the biggest Nov outbreak since 2002

 

I vaguely remember 2002, but this was a big one.

[weatherwiz]

It does hurt us that the timing of this is so early...only b/c if this were to come through tomorrow when temps are well into the 60's and with dewpoints several degrees higher the wind potential would be greater...however, eastern SNE may get into something.  Regardless, I think we'll see some isolated strong wind gusts overnight with the line as it approaches.  

[CT Rain]

It does hurt us that the timing of this is so early...only b/c if this were to come through tomorrow when temps are well into the 60's and with dewpoints several degrees higher the wind potential would be greater...however, eastern SNE may get into something.  Regardless, I think we'll see some isolated strong wind gusts overnight with the line as it approaches.  

 

Meh - LLJ is decent - 70 knots of so but compared to other events like this that we get it's not that unusual. There's a very strong inversion and all the CAPE we have tomorrow is quite elevated and bottled up. I think even in convection it's going to be hard to get much.