wxhstn74 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Update 11/16; Powerful Storm to Bring Damaging Winds and Likelihood of Severe Weather Into The Great Lakes Sundayhttp://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2013/11/deep-low-pressure-system-likely-in.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 winds of 45kt gusting to 60kt might be possible on Lake Huron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 60-70kt winds just off the deck over Lake Ontario blowing on the north shore at 03Z Monday. Wind warnings will likely be issued sometime tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 I'm in Davison, MI through Tue AM...this is my best severe setup in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 From CLE's HWO: THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THAT THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED JUST OFF THE SURFACE. HEAVY RAIN FROM THE SQUALL LINE COULD BRING THESE STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE CAUSING WIDESPREAD DAMAGE. THIS IS VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 I'm in Davison, MI through Tue AM...this is my best severe setup in a long time. It's pretty outrageous that we've got such a beastly severe set up in late november. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 16, 2013 Author Share Posted November 16, 2013 Winds are howling here with intermittent -RN. 0.01" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Chicago nws discussion THINGS REALLY BEGIN TO GET POTENTIALLY INTERESTING ON SUNDAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO TAKE ON A MORE NEUTRAL AND EVENTUALLY NEGATIVE TILT BY EVENING AS IT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. INGREDIENTS REALLY SEEM TO BE FALLING VERY NICELY INTO PLACE FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT SUNDAY ACROSS OUR CWA. POWERFUL 120KT+ UPPER JET IS PROGGED TO NOSE INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY 18Z SUNDAY WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET LIKELY SUPPORTING STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE AREA WITH RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND STRONG SURGING COLD FRONT LIKELY TO PROVIDE THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL FORCING/FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION SUNDAY ALONG THE FRONT. COLD SEASON SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR AREA OFTEN FEATURE SBCAPE OF LESS THAN 1000 J/KG...YET GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SBCAPES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS POCKET OF VERY COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES IN WITH 700-500MB LAPSE RATES >8C/KM. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE TYPICALLY STRONG/EXTREME SHEAR WITH DEEP COLD SEASON CYCLONE RAISES THE THREAT OF A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY BROAD WARM SECTOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MINIMAL CINH. CERTAINLY THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR CONVECTION TO BE FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND LIKELY GOING LINEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER INITIATION...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEVELOPING LARGE STRONGLY SHEARED AND WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR CANNOT RULE OUT SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE DUE TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET COUPLED WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT COULD ALSO BE SUPERCELLS BEFORE MORPHING INTO A LINE...IN EITHER OF THESE SCENARIOS POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. CLIMO SUGGESTS THAT NOVEMBER TORNADOES IN OUR AREA ARE VERY RARE...BUT WHEN THEY OCCUR THEY ARE FREQUENTLY STRONG. DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH CONVECTIVE LINE LOOKS TO BE QUITE HIGH GIVEN THE ALREADY STRONG FIELDS IN PLACE...WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF EMBEDDED MESOVORTEX DEVELOPMENT LEADING TO ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE AND/OR QLCS TORNADO THREAT. DEFINITELY WORTH NOTING THAT THERE ARE MANY MESOSCALE VARIABLE THAT NEED TO FALL INTO PLACE JUST RIGHT TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAKS. ITS CERTAINLY NOT HARD TO ENVISION MULTIPLE SCENARIOS WHERE OUR CWA DODGES ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER BULLET...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT COULD DEVELOP SUNDAY EITHER IN OR CLOSE TO OUR AREA. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTIES AND BUST POTENTIAL...ENOUGH INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BE FALLING INTO PLACE TO REALLY RATCHET UP THE "HYPE" FOR THE POTENTIAL EVENT. A COUPLE OF THINGS TO CONSIDER ABOUT THIS EVENT IS THAT IT WOULD BE AN "OUT OF SEASON" EVENT ON THE WEEKEND WHICH COULD CATCH PEOPLE OFF GUARD. IN ADDITION...THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTREMELY FAST WITH BUNKERS FORECAST RIGHT MOVING STORM MOTION SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BE MOVING AT CLOSE TO 60KT. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTIVE THREAT...VERY STRONG PRESSURE FALLS IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO RESULT IN SYNOPTIC WINDS REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE CWA SUNDAY AND WILL BE HOISTING A WIND ADVISORY. IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 It's pretty outrageous that we've got such a beastly severe set up in late november. Yeah, this is probably our best set up for severe storms here in years and it's in November. If this pans out accordingly this will be an exceptionally rare event for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 I'm in Davison, MI through Tue AM...this is my best severe setup in a long time. Up there in the Flint area seems to be a hot spot for severe weather locally. One of Michigan's very rare F5s hit in that area (Flint-Beecher) one June back in the 1950s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Guys...so we're on the same page as we head into tomorrow...the pinned severe thread in the main forum is meant to be the primary severe thread for this event. Some severe chit chat in here is not an issue but there's a point where disco becomes too fragmented. Models/watches/warnings/analysis/discussions etc should primarily be in the main thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Is this the thread for people who don't get excited for wind and rain? Just checking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Is this the thread for people who don't get excited for wind and rain? Just checking. No. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/40808-winter-2013-14-discussion/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Is this the thread for people who don't get excited for wind and rain? Just checking. yeah we all get excited here about cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 17, 2013 Author Share Posted November 17, 2013 In the last 20 minutes been experienced t-storms with heavy rain, wind and C-G, C-C lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 In the last 20 minutes been experienced t-storms with heavy rain, wind and C-G, C-C lightning. Cool! I'm looking forward to one more good ol' t-storm before winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 17, 2013 Author Share Posted November 17, 2013 Pretty much calmed down now, but that was quite a storm. Horizontal rain blowing in sheets. Best one since September no doubt. Pushing 0.25" rain today. Any ventured guesses when the severe weather threat is highest in IL tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Cool! I'm looking forward to one more good ol' t-storm before winter. I'm hoping we don't have to worry about anything more than that in our area Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Latest guidance indicating a small area of very strong winds immediately behind the low track over eastern Iowa tomorrow afternoon. RAP sounding from near Muscatine shows surface winds sustained at 35kts! Winds just off the deck at over 55kts. Could be a brief window for high wind warning criteria tomorrow late morning into the afternoon for this feature. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see 55mph+ gust associated with this feature. Model soundings show deep mixing behind the front as well, along with strong subsidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 17, 2013 Author Share Posted November 17, 2013 Definitely some gusty winds over Lake Michigan tonight/tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Rain and thunder happening right now. Winds are S @ 10, and gusting to 33. .15" of rain so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 From the 1950-1995 tornado database, there were 4 Michigan tornados in November in that 45 year span 1950-1995 Allegan co:Nov 10, 1975: F1, 0 dead, 0 hurt Ionia co: Nov 27, 1989: F2, 0 dead, 0 hurt Shiawassee co: Nov 27, 1989: F1, 0 dead, 0 hurt Wayne co: Nov 20, 1957: F4, 1 dead, 12 hurt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 I'm in Davison, MI through Tue AM...this is my best severe setup in a long time. lol its the best severe setup MI has seen in a long time. S MI saw snow and temps in the teens and possible tornadoes in the same week. Ahhh November. What brings you to Davison? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 17, 2013 Author Share Posted November 17, 2013 Quiet now, except the wind blowing S near 25mph. Up to 57-58°. 0.24" of rain so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Here's a graphic from the 01z RAP showing some of the wind potential following the bombing cyclone I had mentioned awhile ago. Who knows how accurate this is, but it shows where some very strong winds could occur with the pressure rise/fall couplet. Note there's a small 60kt lollipop in there lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Cincinnati, Chicago, Pittsburg and Buffalo all have home football games on Sunday at 1pm eastern. Could be interesting to see the weather conditions at these games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 you get those icicle lights up yet Geos? .... via LOT... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL937 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2013.DISCUSSION...937 PM CSTTHERE ARE SEVERAL WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 20 HOURS ASSOCIATEDWITH THE MAJOR AUTUMN STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARDFROM THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER GREATLAKES REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN REGARDS TO THE SEVERE THREAT ON SUNDAY. THEONLY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST WAS TO EXPAND THE WINDADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS FOR SUNDAY. I AMCONCERNED THAT WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS UP AROUND55 TO POSSIBLY 60 MPH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THEAFTERNOON. WITH THE TRACK OF THIS RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND FASTMOVING LOW JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...THISWILL PLACE NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHWESTERN INDIANA IN THE PRIMEAREA FOR STRONG WINDS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG ISALLOBARICPRESSURE RISES OF 12 TO 15 MB ARE FORECAST WITHIN ONLY A 6 HOURPERIOD ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.THIS COMBINED WITH AROUND 50 KT OF FLOW EXPECTED WITHIN A COUPLETHOUSAND FEET OF THE SURFACE...COULD RESULT IN THIS SHORT PERIODOF VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 17, 2013 Author Share Posted November 17, 2013 you get those icicle lights up yet Geos? .... via LOT... That's going to be interesting. Yeah I've got most of the outside lights up now. Hopefully I won't have to rearrange any tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 That's going to be interesting. Yeah I've got most of the outside lights up now. Hopefully I won't have to rearrange any tomorrow! my neighbor to the north has yet to rake one leaf yet.....hopefully the south winds will blow them far away before the front rolls in to blow them onto my lawn lol.... hey, this system has a shot at the top 5 for LP's in the great lakes??? (in terms of lowest pressures) .... not too shabby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 17, 2013 Author Share Posted November 17, 2013 Going to be a crazy wx day tomorrow. Hope their is no ships out on the open waters of the GL's tomorrow or Monday. Impressive. New incoming convection into western IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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