cyclone77 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Completely agree. Also as an aside, even if the severe threat is completely east of your area, you'll have the probably at least advisory criteria winds behind the front to look forward to. 18z NAM had 10 mb/3hr pressure rises late afternoon/early evening and 925 mb winds up to 50 kt or so. Yeah it's starting to look real good for some strong gradient winds later Sunday, and Sunday night for this area, and also out east for you guys. The storm bombing a good 4-8hrs earlier than last night's guidance definitely helps as well. Don't think we'll quite reach warning criteria, but mid to high-end advisory winds look feasible. If the low slows down a few hours more and bombs even earlier, then warning criteria may be achievable, especially Sunday night out east towards you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 You should post this in the severe thread. I'm assuming part of the LOT CWA (I work there) is going to be in the MDT for Day 2, with most if not all of the rest of the CWA in the Slight. Havent looked closely enough at tomorrow night, but it seems that trends support your thoughts. will do. but any thoughts on changes, or you think i'm in the ball park there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Completely agree. Also as an aside, even if the severe threat is completely east of your area, you'll have the probably at least advisory criteria winds behind the front to look forward to. 18z NAM had 10 mb/3hr pressure rises late afternoon/early evening and 925 mb winds up to 50 kt or so. Yeah it's starting to look real good for some strong gradient winds later Sunday, and Sunday night for this area, and also out east for you guys. The storm bombing a good 4-8hrs earlier than last night's guidance definitely helps as well. Don't think we'll quite reach warning criteria, but mid to high-end advisory winds look feasible. If the low slows down a few hours more and bombs even earlier, then warning criteria may be achievable, especially Sunday night out east towards you guys. Yup, on board with those thoughts. Even out this way mean mixed layer gusts on BUFKIT were higher end advisory but top of the channel was into warning criteria. If it's gonna happen, it'll be with such an incredibly strong isallobaric component. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 You should post this in the severe thread. I'm assuming part of the LOT CWA (I work there) is going to be in the MDT for Day 2, with most if not all of the rest of the CWA in the Slight. Havent looked closely enough at tomorrow night, but it seems that trends support your thoughts. will do. but any thoughts on changes, or you think i'm in the ball park there? I think given trends tonight, the MDT might be I57 and east or maybe even I55, slight risk area sounds decent. Might be tough to get it up into GRB bc of the low track, but tonight's guidance shows favorable moisture getting up to southern WI (low 60s dews to MKE). Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 I wouldn't be that surprised to see a high risk when we get to Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 There is a thread about it, by November, who really gets excited about severe?I agree 100%, but to be fair we are in the minority. I'd be excited in spring or summer, but in November I couldn't care less. I'm like those folks who don't get excited for a snowstorm in spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 I would be very surprised if they didn't upgrade to moderate for day 2. At the least we're looking at widespread severe for wind, which definitely supports a mod. I expect a "beefily" worded moderate/hatched day2 in the next few hours. I agree completely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 I wouldn't be that surprised to see a high risk when we get to Sunday. I tend to stay a little conservative when predicting SPC outlooks, but the overall synoptic setup for this event screams high risk. Conditional factors may inhibit the eventual risk, and outcome, but synoptically this setup is top notch. Instability forecasts are pretty good considering the time of year. If I were a gambling man, I'd say this goes high risk by the 1630z update Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 I agree 100%, but to be fair we are in the minority. I'd be excited in spring or summer, but in November I couldn't care less. I'm like those folks who don't get excited for a snowstorm in spring. Hopefully any damage that happens avoids my backyard and everyone else here but yeah this fascinates me more so because of the time of year. Ofcourse i have always been big with extreme wx.. For this time of year this is as extreme as it gets if everything pans out as the models suggest. So yeah i am down with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 I wouldn't be that surprised to see a high risk when we get to Sunday. not sure we see a high risk. but a moderate risk with maybe some PDS severe thunderstorm watches due to widespread high wind gusts, I could see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 not sure we see a high risk. but a moderate risk with maybe some PDS severe thunderstorm watches due to widespread high wind gusts, I could see that. The only way that would happen is if there was basically very low tornado potential (which there isn't), otherwise it will be a tornado watch with high wind probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Earlobe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 so how far do you take the risk for gusts into Ontario, and from what's being shown there harrisale, maybe southern/western Quebec? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 16, 2013 Author Share Posted November 16, 2013 I agree 100%, but to be fair we are in the minority. I'd be excited in spring or summer, but in November I couldn't care less. I'm like those folks who don't get excited for a snowstorm in spring. I am thinking along those same lines, but seeing something out of season is interesting. To experience an early May snowstorm would be fascinating for example. I'm surprised to hear that the severe weather potential could reach GRB. Seems a bit too far north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 new day 1 is out. and i'm surprised more of Wisconsin wasn't included in there. but maybe I was reaching a bit for the storms' propagation as they move northeastwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 so how far do you take the risk for gusts into Ontario, and from what's being shown there harrisale, maybe southern/western Quebec? I'd have to think the convective damaging wind threat extends out to to at least Kingston, ON, probably to the QC border before the system loses potency. Areas along the northern shore of Lake Ontario including Toronto and east will be looking at gusts in the vicinity of 100 km/h coming off the lake, maybe even a touch higher; 925mb winds could be in the 60kt range along the shore. Tor threat minimal but certainly possible in the extreme SW of the province. More likely a spin up within the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 I'd have to think the convective damaging wind threat extends out to to at least Kingston, ON, probably to the QC border before the system loses potency. Areas along the northern shore of Lake Ontario including Toronto and east will be looking at gusts in the vicinity of 100 km/h coming off the lake, maybe even a touch higher; 925mb winds could be in the 60kt range along the shore. Tor threat minimal but certainly possible in the extreme SW of the province. More likely a spin up within the line. i was thinking mainly straight-line gusts marching across by that time. and i was also thinking at least Kingston, but maybe as far as the Ottawa River from YWA to the St Lawrence River. I would hope they would be weak enough before they make it to Montreal. But i'm not sure how EC-Montreal would further the warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 and the day 2. not much surprise here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Wow, SEMI in a 45% hatched area in mid-November... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Excerpt from the DTX AFD just issued regarding the system: THE DAY2 SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS UPGRADED THE SRN TWO THIRDS OFTHE FORECAST AREA TO A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...VERY RAREFOR SE MI IN NOVEMBER. THE CHARACTER OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER SE MI ONSUNDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE EFFICIENCY OF THE ADVECTION OF INSTABILITYNORTHWARD WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE APPROACHING SFC LOW. MODELSOUNDINGS ALL SUGGEST WIDESPREAD STRATUS /POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE/SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM SOLUTION IS THE MOST EFFICIENT IN ADVECTINGSFC BASED INSTABILITY INTO SE MI SUN AFTERNOON. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGSIN THE 21Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME SUGGEST 0-1KM ML CAPE APPROACHING 1KJ/KG. WITH 50-60KTS DEEP LAYER SHEER AND HIGH LOW LEVEL HELICITY ASEVERE SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS IS PLAUSIBLE AND LIKELYTHE KEY PLAYER IN THE UPGRADE TO A MODERATE RISK. ALTHOUGH THE GFSAND ECMWF HAVE LESS INSTABILITY...THE INTENSITY OF THE LARGE SCALEDYNAMICS AND STRONG WIND FIELD JUST OFF THE SURFACE WOULD STILL POSEA FORMIDABLE RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OUT OF A CONVECTIVE LINESEGMENT IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.ALTHOUGH THE SFC ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT ALONG THE SFC COLD FRONT ISFORECAST TO BE RATHER WEAK...THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLYDEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST SUN NIGHT. STRONG LARGE SCALESUBSIDENCE AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PROVE EFFICIENTIN MIXING STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SFC. MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAINSUPPORTIVE OF WIND GUSTS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING SOLIDLY INTHE ADVISORY CRITERIA /AROUND 45 MPH/. WIND GUSTS SHOULD THENDECREASE DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON MON AS THE GRADIENTSLOWLY RELAXES. AFTER POSSIBLY HITTING OR EXCEEDING RECORD HIGHS FORSUN /70 DEG AT DTW...FNT AND MBS/...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SENDTEMPS DOWN TOWARD MORE TYPICAL NOVEMBER READINGS ON MON. THISCOLDER AIRMASS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. Grids have the Detroit metro area bumped up to the upper 60's to around 70 for sunday. Insane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 06Z NAM simulated reflectivity looks nasty for the southern half of lower MI at 42 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Rare to see such strong words from DTX in a HWO: MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-170930-MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-420 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2013THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTMICHIGAN..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHTNO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAYTHERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ANDEVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND A CHANCE OF TORNADOESARE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. AN INTENSIFYING AREA OF LOWPRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY NIGHT.THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW AN UNUSUAL AMOUNT OF WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRFOR NOVEMBER INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. THIS COMBINED WITH A STRONGLYSHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR A POTENTIALNOVEMBER SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK.COLD AIR WILL ADVANCE BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONTSUNDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUETO STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS INTO CANADA. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDGUSTS AROUND 45 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND MAYREQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.$$ http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/outlook.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 The above tornado mention made me think of how rare one might be this time of the year in DTX. Anyone have any ideas of the latest one to be sighted in the DTX area over the years. One thing is for sure to go to such extremes temperature wise is very impressive 20's on Tuesday followed by possible high 60's perhaps 70 on Sunday is crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 The above tornado mention made me think of how rare one might be this time of the year in DTX. Anyone have any ideas of the latest one to be sighted in the DTX area over the years. One thing is for sure to go to such extremes temperature wise is very impressive 20's on Tuesday followed by possible high 60's perhaps 70 on Sunday is crazy. EC also has special weather statements out for most of Ontario (heavy rain for the north and rain/wind in the south with the risk for severe thunderstorms, especially in the SW [yqg/yzr/yxu]). i just wonder who is on over there at Downsview tomorrow for the potential of severe wx coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 The above tornado mention made me think of how rare one might be this time of the year in DTX. Anyone have any ideas of the latest one to be sighted in the DTX area over the years. One thing is for sure to go to such extremes temperature wise is very impressive 20's on Tuesday followed by possible high 60's perhaps 70 on Sunday is crazy.November tornadoes are rare here, but there have been at least a few cases. SPC Environmental Browser has the tracks and timing stats: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 16, 2013 Author Share Posted November 16, 2013 Drizzle and upper 40s out right now. Some convection moving across IL this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 November tornadoes are rare here, but there have been at least a few cases. SPC Environmental Browser has the tracks and timing stats: image.jpg Is there a way you can post a link to this information?? I'm also interested on the Canadian portion of this map, Essex county to be precise. Our street is known as Tornado Alley for the older locals, for they seem to be concentrated in our region. Ive see two in the last 4 years... Sorry to waver off the topic a tad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Warm sector precip looks unavoidable to me. That PV anomaly outrunning the main show will almost certainly be able to force showers/storms ahead of it. For what it's worth, this anomaly crosses eastern IA late this evening really, and the SPC WRF run from 00z initiates some big storms there around 04z. Something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 That's quite the look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Is there a way you can post a link to this information?? I'm also interested on the Canadian portion of this map, Essex county to be precise. Our street is known as Tornado Alley for the older locals, for they seem to be concentrated in our region. Ive see two in the last 4 years... Sorry to waver off the topic a tad... It's a great resource, but unfortunately it doesn't cover much of Canada. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/envbrowser/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.