Boston Snowfall, ENSO, and Blocking

[weathafella]

They don't show bad winters with a pos AO

43% under 20 for BOS with AO +1 or higher. Believe me, if BOS gets 17 you're not getting 80.

[weathafella]

And since when is AO separated from the pacific?

[Ginx snewx]

So Don's stats are figments?

His stats show exactly what Will says. as we have thought for years  AO- NAO- 

[N. OF PIKE]

Bos winters for snow weenies usually are full of periods of heartbreak as much as joyful snow

Yes the best is when powderfreak says for us to relax and be patient , lets see him relax if he had 5/6'th of his annual snowfall cut and needed a constellation to allign for a favorable pattern (cold and snowy for weeks). And yes i know we are better than mid atlantic if i was there i would need a pep talk to stop myself from tying a morning noose

[ORH_wxman]

Yes the best is when powderfreak says for us to relax and be patient , lets see him relax if he had 5/6'th of his annual snowfall cut.

 

 

He was mildly melting down in the middle of January 2011 when they kept getting whiffed up there while SNE was getting destroyed. I don't blame him, I hate "wasting" the heart of winter in January. They eventually got theirs though in Feb/Mar.

[N. OF PIKE]

I mean honestly Will what does it take for it to not snow near the spine of the greens. They Always get 150' i think once ur at 2k.

I want a condo @ like 2k soo badly in N greens. Bolton is prob most feasible option.

[ORH_wxman]

I mean honestly Will what does it take for it to not snow near the spine of the greens. They Always get 150' i think once ur at 2k.

I want a condo @ like 2k soo badly in N greens. Bolton is prob most feasible option.

 

 

A very dry winter.

 

 

Start saving up.

[CoastalWx]

Yes the best is when powderfreak says for us to relax and be patient , lets see him relax if he had 5/6'th of his annual snowfall cut and needed a constellation to allign for a favorable pattern (cold and snowy for weeks). And yes i know we are better than mid atlantic if i was there i would need a pep talk to stop myself from tying a morning noose

 

Kevin will be back to complaining when he avgs 14" for a KU again.

[CoastalWx]

I mean honestly Will what does it take for it to not snow near the spine of the greens. They Always get 150' i think once ur at 2k.

I want a condo @ like 2k soo badly in N greens. Bolton is prob most feasible option.

 

Fake snow.

[N. OF PIKE]

A very dry winter.

Start saving up.

i see some every winter for 600/month studio @ bolton

[ORH_wxman]

i see some every winter for 600/month studio @ bolton

 

I thought you were talking about buying a condo...if you are renting, then yeah. You could find a small place to hole up for the winter and enjoy it.

[DavisStraight]

I mean honestly Will what does it take for it to not snow near the spine of the greens. They Always get 150' i think once ur at 2k.

I want a condo @ like 2k soo badly in N greens. Bolton is prob most feasible option.

I stayed up there for a few days last winter in Feb and it snowed every day, maybe only a total of 8-9 inches but it seemed to always be snowing. It wasn't a great snow year and there still were some 5-6 foot drifts against the building where we stayed.

[donsutherland1]

And really my point is that the PAC trumps the Atlantic. It drives the bus. That's what we are seeing this winter

 

Unfortunately, that's not always the case. For example, the super AO+ regime of 1988-89 overwhelmed the negative EPO producing a generally mild winter in the East. The super AO- regime of 1968-69 overwhelmed the EPO+ providing a generally cold winter in the East.

[N. OF PIKE]

I stayed up there for a few days last winter in Feb and it snowed every day, maybe only a total of 8-9 inches but it seemed to always be snowing. It wasn't a great snow year and there still were some 5-6 foot drifts against the building where we stayed.

It is a magical place , snows almost daily, and a quarter of the time that the forecast calls for chance of snow showers two days out, you wind up with 8 inches half way up the mountain trails. No where else do i know (nearby) where the "magic" of waking up like to see how much snow fell (bc it could have dump'd) kinda like when you were a kid to see how much snow had fallen

[N. OF PIKE]

Can anyone (Don) or someone please run AO/NAO stats correlation for some NNE and or CNE local's.

Like say IZG (eastern NNE) ave snowfall is like 82"+ and for say MPV ave is like 94 (W. NNE)

I think it would be fascinating to see those same breakdowns done for NNE cities that were done for Philly and Bos . I would assume AO /NAO state has less correlation to above ave winters as you move north.

[donsutherland1]

Can anyone (Don) or someone please run AO/NAO stats correlation for some NNE and or CNE local's.

Like say IZG (eastern NNE) ave snowfall is like 82"+ and for say MPV ave is like 94 (W. NNE)

I think it would be fascinating to see those same breakdowns done for NNE cities that were done for Philly and Bos . I would assume AO /NAO state has less correlation to above ave winters as you move north.

I'll post the figures for Burlington later this evening.

[donsutherland1]

The charts for Burlington:

 

[N. OF PIKE]

Thank u Don! Very much

I was wondering if u have them for Montpelier as well. I could swear someplace w elevation would be less AO dependant but perhaps im wrong.

[donsutherland1]

Thank u Don! Very much

I was wondering if u have them for Montpelier as well. I could swear someplace w elevation would be less AO dependant but perhaps im wrong.

Unfortunately, I don't have Montpelier's seasonal snowfall figures.

[nzucker]

Looking like this winter is going to start off colder than expected due to the -EPO blocking, despite a +AO. We know that if NYC or Boston receives adequate December snowfall, the chances of a snowy winter are much higher. Will be interesting if the western ridge/Alaska block sustains itself.

[N. OF PIKE]

Looking like this winter is going to start off colder than expected due to the -EPO blocking, despite a +AO. We know that if NYC or Boston receives adequate December snowfall, the chances of a snowy winter are much higher. Will be interesting if the western ridge/Alaska block sustains itself.

 

Def agree with first statement.

 

Although I think if we catch 10 inches in a progressive flow and colder than normal temps (in Dec) , I think with a lot of indicators pointing to an +AO winter that that the Dec snowfall would hold less weight. I guess I would ask Don to check and see how many winter's where Boston had greater than 10 inches there was below normal snowfall and out of those below  normal years how many of them had a +AO. And we could also see out of the years that finished Above normal (after 10" plus in Dec)  how many of them featured a +AO.  what I guess I'm getting at is that I think the correlation for 10"+ Dec leading to above normal season snowfall is much lower for winters that had a dominant +AO

[ORH_wxman]

Def agree with first statement.

 

Although I think if we catch 10 inches in a progressive flow and colder than normal temps (in Dec) , I think with a lot of indicators pointing to an +AO winter that that the Dec snowfall would hold less weight. I guess I would ask Don to check and see how many winter's where Boston had greater than 10 inches there was below normal snowfall and out of those below  normal years how many of them had a +AO. And we could also see out of the years that finished Above normal (after 10" plus in Dec)  how many of them featured a +AO.  what I guess I'm getting at is that I think the correlation for 10"+ Dec leading to above normal season snowfall is much lower for winters that had a dominant +AO

 

 

BOS Decembers with 10"+ and a +AO winter:

 

Year......DEC total......Seasonal total

 

2008.......25.3"..............65.9"

2007.......27.7"..............52.0"

1975.......19.3"..............46.6"

1956.......15.4"..............52.0"

 

 

Not a big sample. Just missing the list is 1992 with December 1992 dropping 9.7"...of course that would only boost the totals on the list as that winter had 83.9".

[Ginx snewx]

BOS Decembers with 10"+ and a +AO winter:

 

Year......DEC total......Seasonal total

 

2008.......25.3"..............65.9"

2007.......27.7"..............52.0"

1975.......19.3"..............46.6"

1956.......15.4"..............52.0"

 

 

Not a big sample. Just missing the list is 1992 with December 1992 dropping 9.7"...of course that would only boost the totals on the list as that winter had 83.9".

dec 75 was fun

[N. OF PIKE]

Thank you Will! Good to know, i was thinkin there would be some stinkers, but wow @ Bos in 2007,2008. Also the 1992.

[CoastalWx]

Thank you Will! Good to know, i was thinkin there would be some stinkers, but wow @ Bos in 2007,2008. Also the 1992.

Take a guess how the Pacific was in those years especially in 2007 and 2008.

[N. OF PIKE]

Take a guess how the Pacific was in those years especially in 2007 and 2008.

Good

[ORH_wxman]

2008 was barely a +AO...it really was neutral for all intents and purposes. But I didn't make a minimum absolute value threshold when reviewing the years. 1966-1967 was barely negative and had 9.9" in December for BOS...so I didn't have it up there because of barely negative...though if you include March it was a positive AO winter. Ironically, the two big snow months that winter were Feb and Mar which were strongly positive AO.

[Ginx snewx]

What sometimes is missing when you see well the AO was positive or negative the NAO was positive or negative that year, month and we got a great storm is the fact that sometimes during these storms a very transitional block sets up. SO actually on the day or day before the index could actually be negative or positive The dailies show examples of that over the years, guess what the NAO value was in Blizz 13

[ORH_wxman]

What sometimes is missing when you see well the AO was positive or the NAO was positive and we got a great storm is the fact that sometimes during these storms a very transitional block sets up so actually on the day or day before the index could actually be negative. The dailies show examples of that over the years, guess what the NAO value was in Blizz 13

 

 

Yes, they are called Archambault events.

[Ginx snewx]

Yes, they are called Archambault events.

Many wrote off Blizz 13 as progressive the week before simply because of the very positive NAO. Like you said earlier today temporary blocks occur.