WxUSAF Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Great plot, Midlo! Looks like +0-2F is right on point for the GFS at least. Maybe more like +0-1F for the 3 DC/Balt airports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 And this warm spell the anomalies will be bigger as we're later in the month with the same temps. I think the perceptions of the valley folks and those around the city will be pretty different as we've had little snow and will have had two really warm spells mixed in with the cold. To those happy with their December, great, for me it's been pretty lame but then most are. I picked the "Southeast" regional view because it spaces the anomalies by 2 degrees instead of 3 with the "Northeast" view. It is definitely something how west of DC across northern VA has been much cooler overall and you can see the gradient in anomalies N/W (thanks to CAD setups etc) of DC as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I picked the "Southeast" regional view because it spaces the anomalies by 2 degrees instead of 3 with the "Northeast" view. It is definitely something how west of DC across northern VA has been much cooler overall and you can see the gradient in anomalies N/W (thanks to CAD setups etc) of DC as well. hprccdec1-17se.JPG HM, where do you get those maps from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I understand what you're saying, but even here, where we (local) consider this a great winter month so far, we are still going to be above normal come Sunday, probably 2 or 3 degrees above. I don't think that stat does a very good job locally of describing the winter so far out here. We are in agreement since your monthly temperature anomaly will be lower than DC and certainly your snowfall departure will be quite higher. If you end up slightly above normal temperature-wise and well above snowfall-wise, I would imagine that should do a pretty solid job at describing the month, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Great plot, Midlo! Looks like +0-2F is right on point for the GFS at least. Maybe more like +0-1F for the 3 DC/Balt airports. Nice map, Midlo. Where did that come from? http://www.karstenhaustein.com/climate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 HM, where do you get those maps from? http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/index.php?action=update_product&product=PDept# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 HM, where do you get those maps from? Those images are courtesy of the High Plains Regional Climate Center: http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/ In the drop-downs, pick "month-to-date" and "temperature departure from normal." When you develop the image, select the location you want from the menu on the left under "select a region." Certainly play around with the different timescales too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Averages are overrated...for me personally it's the individual event or stretch of days that are important. No doubt this weekends warmth is impressive...CWG did a great job talking about the extreme swings...but really this weekend is the real first one of those in my opinion...early December...eh..not really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I picked the "Southeast" regional view because it spaces the anomalies by 2 degrees instead of 3 with the "Northeast" view. It is definitely something how west of DC across northern VA has been much cooler overall and you can see the gradient in anomalies N/W (thanks to CAD setups etc) of DC as well. hprccdec1-17se.JPG By that map KOKV is in the -2 to -4 range. As of today, it's actually about -0.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 We are in agreement since your monthly temperature anomaly will be lower than DC and certainly your snowfall departure will be quite higher. If you end up slightly above normal temperature-wise and well above snowfall-wise, I would imagine that should do a pretty solid job at describing the month, no? Well, I can't predict the rest of the month temperature wise, but as I posted just prior to this, we are right at "normal" in Winchester as of today. I don't think that describes what we've seen so far very well at all. That's why I've always thought the median is a much better statistic to use. I don't have the day by day results handy, but I'm 100% sure the median would be in the mid to upper 30's which I think would describe the month well to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 after monday we will have the exact same number of cold and warm days in December...11-11-1...and we will be around +2 (loose guess)...If we can finish +1.5 to +2, I will be very happy with my call...either way above normal for the month is a lock - famous last words As I said in my outlook.... "However, in recent years, when you have a similar number of above normal days and below normal days, the warmer days have tended to be warmer than the colder days cold. So in the means, we end up warm." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 So, how about that first storm window of yours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I was referring to when you (matt) asked me about that 2 potential periods ( see below). MJO still on track! Thanks for looking into the dates; I know that I had asked a while back. I like the first window more than the last one. I feel like this "harmonic" wave moves swiftly back to the W PAC and basically allows late Dec-early Jan to have potential. Regardless of methods or analogs, it is cool that we both came up with a possible storm before the month is over. This is a lot harder when you don't have the big, big signals (like you get for a KU event) showing up. Even though 1961 didn't have anything significant, it did have a pretty good pattern from late Dec into the beginning of Jan. It also had quite the cold shot around Jan 10. So, the warning of extreme temp shifts this winter is looking good. My guess is that things will grow increasingly hostile second week of January. NAO will bias positive after its earlier dip and possibly a REAL MJO wave may form in the IO. But really, your guess is as good as mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 after monday we will have the exact same number of cold and warm days in December...11-11-1...and we will be around +2 (loose guess)...If we can finish +1.5 to +2, I will be very happy with my call...either way above normal for the month is a lock - famous last words As I said in my outlook.... "However, in recent years, when you have a similar number of above normal days and below normal days, the warmer days have tended to be warmer than the colder days cold. So in the means, we end up warm." Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 after monday we will have the exact same number of cold and warm days in December...11-11-1...and we will be around +2 (loose guess)...If we can finish +1.5 to +2, I will be very happy with my call...either way above normal for the month is a lock - famous last words As I said in my outlook.... "However, in recent years, when you have a similar number of above normal days and below normal days, the warmer days have tended to be warmer than the colder days cold. So in the means, we end up warm." Good call. That's also why I've not ready to get real excited yet about the long range GFS. I'd still bet there is a least one more warmer than normal day after Christmas. My guess is you end up the month around plus 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 So, how about that first storm window of yours? ha...Not sure but def a chance of something...probably too warm for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 Good call. That's also why I've not ready to get real excited yet about the long range GFS. I'd still bet there is a least one more warmer than normal day after Christmas. My guess is you end up the month around plus 1. i think +1 to +2 sounds right if we can get this heat wave to verify..today could be a bust in heats favor...If DCA can get away from a south wind for at least a little while, they should do 60 today, maybe higher...even 58 would be a +5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 i think +1 to +2 sounds right if we can get this heat wave to verify..today could be a bust in heats favor...If DCA can get away from a south wind for at least a little while, they should do 60 today, maybe higher...even 58 would be a +5 Today's euro looks like it has two days after Christmas with the max temp around 47 which is 3 degrees above normal so the last week is not likely to ice box us enough to wipe out the surplus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 i think +1 to +2 sounds right if we can get this heat wave to verify..today could be a bust in heats favor...If DCA can get away from a south wind for at least a little while, they should do 60 today, maybe higher...even 58 would be a +5 Last night's euro ens mean had sunday at 70 so I think the heat wave is a good bet. It even has the temp monday morning temp at 12Z in the low 60s. I think the latter may a tad warm but does suggest that monday is still going to be quite a bit above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Last night's euro ens mean had sunday at 70 so I think the heat wave is a good bet. It even has the temp monday morning temp at 12Z in the low 60s. I think the latter may a tad warm but does suggest that monday is still going to be quite a bit above normal. Monday will have a midnight or early morning high temp probably either way. As for next week, the Euro seems to be the warmest of the major global models I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 Today's euro looks like it has two days after Christmas with the max temp around 47 which is 3 degrees above normal so the last week is not likely to ice box us enough to wipe out the surplus. There is pretty much no conceivable way we won't finish December above normal. The last 8-9 days of the month would have to average like -6.. The question is whether I can claim victory or will have to settle with "at least I got on the right side of the departure". I think +1.5 is the benchmark for me to say I put out a decent december call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Monday will have a midnight or early morning high temp probably either way. As for next week, the Euro seems to be the warmest of the major global models I've seen. True but I don't trust the GFS maxes on the days lows go north of us, they tend to end higher than forecast more times than not. My max today was 57.5 so tomorrow I should top 60. We'll end up with 4 days with a max above 60, with Sunday having a good shot at 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 ha...Not sure but def a chance of something...probably too warm for me The MJO should remain favorable along with ridge bridge through about Jan 10-15. So, both of your storm periods now look equally likely. Your outlook is kicking ass so far. As Ian and I said on Twitter, in matt we trust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 The MJO should remain favorable along with ridge bridge through about Jan 10-15. So, both of your storm periods now look equally likely. Your outlook is kicking ass so far. As Ian and I said on Twitter, in matt we trust. ha, thanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 After tomorrow most of the next week other than a day looks close to climo. Should avg out fairly close at least. Pretty cool you'll end up fairly close in the end, especially considering many were calling for a bust in early Dec.. these last few days kicked some butt. +27 today even with most of it not being that warm heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 23, 2013 Author Share Posted December 23, 2013 After tomorrow most of the next week other than a day looks close to climo. Should avg out fairly close at least. Pretty cool you'll end up fairly close in the end, especially considering many were calling for a bust in early Dec.. these last few days kicked some butt. +27 today even with most of it not being that warm heh. yeah...I'd guess we finish the month about +2 or so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 yeah...I'd guess we finish the month about +2 or so.... We'll see how the numbers go but your forecast for December is definitely looking the best for the DC area. Despite how things were "perceived" which is never a scientific or correct way to measure anything, the warm shots have been over-achievers just like the cold shots. The variability that was expressed is key to the success of this winter forecast. This also should be a stern warning for the people who explain "patterns" with "patterns" and do NOT understand the mechanics behind the pattern. Saying "November was cold, so December will be because of some ridge" is actually faulty logic, correct forecast or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 23, 2013 Author Share Posted December 23, 2013 We'll see how the numbers go but your forecast for December is definitely looking the best for the DC area. Despite how things were "perceived" which is never a scientific or correct way to measure anything, the warm shots have been over-achievers just like the cold shots. The variability that was expressed is key to the success of this winter forecast. This also should be a stern warning for the people who explain "patterns" with "patterns" and do NOT understand the mechanics behind the pattern. Saying "November was cold, so December will be because of some ridge" is actually faulty logic, correct forecast or not. Thanks...Getting December right is important to me...I have a very spotty track record with December, and you don't get as much latitude when putting out a forecast in early to mid November. I have gotten better. I did decent with 3 out of last 4 decembers...Dec 2009, 2010, 2012 were decent calls and 2011 was a bad miss....I was more confused about December than I have ever been and delayed my outlook by almost a week this year, but felt I made the right decision at the end..If we finish +2, I'll be really happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 so far in Dc 12 days of below normal 10 days of above normal(today will make it 11). The warm days are outdoing the cold days but it took historic warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 We get historic warmth at least a few times a year these days. Even in our cold summer that July stretch broke some records for longevity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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