2013-2014 Capital Weather Gang Winter Outlook

[WEATHER53]

Couple things showing their hand and even solidifying their position. One is that the day 7 outlooks has been consistently Way too mild.  Any winter gets a 60+ here and there but that's not meaningful as indicating any pattern change.  What November brought us December into January looks to continue, that's what the analogs show, so far they have been very good.

[snow.]

Couple things showing their hand and even solidifying their position. One is that the day 7 outlooks has been consistently Way too mild.  Any winter gets a 60+ here and there but that's not meaningful as indicating any pattern change.  What November brought us December into January looks to continue, that's what the analogs show, so far they have been very good.

 

Well for the last warmup, the models were too cold and didnt catch on until quite close to it.  A number of us identified that the 1st week of December might have a few mild days, but it really didn't become apparent until close in.  So at least for this last one, it isn't correct.

 

I do think my warm call is in jeopardy....I thought dec 15-22 would be a period of relaxation, and still do,  but with so much cold air around I am not confident at all as to how warm it can get....plus we are +2.6 now and that is going to be demolished this week

[Ji]

Well for the last warmup, the models were too cold and didnt catch on until quite close to it.  A number of us identified that the 1st week of December might have a few mild days, but it really didn't become apparent until close in.  So at least for this last one, it isn't correct.

 

I do think my warm call is in jeopardy....I thought dec 15-22 would be a period of relaxation, and still do,  but with so much cold air around I am not confident at all as to how warm it can get....plus we are +2.6 now and that is going to be demolished this week

no matter what happens in Dec, the public will see this a snowy and cold month after tomorrow's storm

[WEATHER53]

The closet thing we have to a pattern change, if any, from November to current is colder and snowier

[snow.]

The closet thing we have to a pattern change, if any, from November to current is colder and snowier

 

 

yeah...there hasn't been a real pattern change..though the warmup at the beginning of the month was more than just a 1-2 day warm shot....It was a solid 4 day warm shot averaging +10....we hadn't seen anything like it in over a month....This upcoming shot looks brutal and I am up in the air after that , but would lean toward relaxation again.  However, I like your chances of verifying your cold call better than my warm one, though I could see it around normal at the end

[Ji]

The closet thing we have to a pattern change, if any, from November to current is colder and snowier

Dec isnt colder than November so far.....but that will change this week. Nov was pretty damn cold

[snow.]

no matter what happens in Dec, the public will see this a snowy and cold month after tomorrow's storm

 

my call is in trouble unless we torch the 2nd half...I think we will be warm for part of it, but that wont be enough

[snow.]

after Friday we should be around -2 for the month...maybe a little warmer...We should have a period of relaxation after the 15th for a few days at least...but that period might only average normal....then I dont know but I expect normal to below....My call looks really bad...I think 70 - 30 chance we finish below...only possibility for me is a torch at the end of the month and a stretch of 50s/60 next week...

[HM]

Below is the latest 20-day period on ESRL for 2013's SST and surface temp anomalies. Of the warm pool analogs in the NE PAC, 2004, 1989, 1985, 1972, 1961 are doing the best. Only 1 from the "displaced-west" list improved since we last looked and that is 1971.

 

Of these 6 years, only 1985 and 1972 are really matching temperature anomaly-wise for North America.  

 

 

[HM]

Here are the 6 analogs and how they did in that 20-day period. Obviously, the time scale here is subject to other influences affecting the surface temp anomalies. Despite their differences, they can all be helpful long-term.

 

[Bob Chill]

Nice graphics HM. 72 was a big +AO year door to door with few breaks. This is the AO index for D-M

 

 

 

The crazy -EPO in early December delivered the goods for sure but it relaxed and never came back with much consequence the remainder of the year:

 

 

 

72-73 is a terrible enso analog though so that is worth noting. It's was the 3rd strongest nino the last 60 years I think. Correct me if I'm wrong. 

 

This year is more of a future analog vs having analogs. Very fun. 

 

 

[HM]

Yeah, I did not discriminate for any other factors; I simply matched the warm pool in the NE PAC. It is a good reason, too, for why 72-73 was such a strange winter. For the third strongest El Nino, it sure didn't look like one...kind of neat how this year also has elements of an El Nino to some extent.

 

As for the QBO/ENSO system, 71-72, 61-62 and 85-86 are all good. Again, 04-05 was a nino but +QBO too.

 

Once that +QBO signal switches the NAM state later in the winter, we get a decent round of mod events. The middle portion of Feb and sometimes again in early Mar all seemed to have another onslaught of winter storms in these analogs. So 2013-14 should remain interesting late-winter after a possible Jan thaw.

[WEATHER53]

Beginning to wonder if the only reservation I had about my winter outlook is coming true.  I went with Jan as the very cold month, -3 to -5, but did express concerns that the cold month might be December, which I predicted at 0 to -1.  Occurent weather and physical system set ups and the analog years thereof have really matched well so far.

Pretty good run for 12/1-12/10, when was last time we had two modest snow events in that time frame.

[Bob Chill]

Yeah, I did not discriminate for any other factors; 

 

I know you didn't but since I only posted graphs for one of the years and the AO matches I didn't want my post to be interpreted as a "perfect or really close match" irt to winter as a whole. 

 

I am really surprised how active the stj has been. It's almost shocking in some ways. It makes sense given the extreme ridging in the npac/ak. Makes it easy for moisture to come underneath is and meet up with very deep and cold airmasses in the middle of the country. I never in a million years would have said back in Oct or even early Nov that I thought Dec was going to have crazy cold outbreaks and very active southern stream providing plenty of moisture in the eastern half of the country. 

 

Maybe somebody was talking about that in Oct but I sure didn't read anything in that regard. 

[usedtobe]

So how much are we below normal for December?   Looks like Sunday will be a +25 day and Saturday will be way up there two. Monday still may have a morning max above 60 suggesting the 4 days will really stack up positive degrees to overwhelm where we're at now.  Also,  the period after Xmas looks pretty normal with maxes probably running slightly below normal but  possibly being near normal. 

[HM]

So how much are we below normal for December?   Looks like Sunday will be a +25 day and Saturday will be way up there two. Monday still may have a morning max above 60 suggesting the 4 days will really stack up positive degrees to overwhelm where we're at now.  Also,  the period after Xmas looks pretty normal with maxes probably running slightly below normal but  possibly being near normal. 

 

I think DCA is -1 through yesterday. It is quite possible that Matt ends up more correct than Howard or me in the end. This warm-up is going to affect a decent amount of days, despite the whole thing being rather quick. I guess somewhere in the middle of our forecasts was the right call.

[WxUSAF]

So how much are we below normal for December?   Looks like Sunday will be a +25 day and Saturday will be way up there two. Monday still may have a morning max above 60 suggesting the 4 days will really stack up positive degrees to overwhelm where we're at now.  Also,  the period after Xmas looks pretty normal with maxes probably running slightly below normal but  possibly being near normal. 

-1 DCA

-1.4 IAD

-0.8 BWI

 

Certainly the Fri-Mon period will be way above normal and push us several degrees above normal.  The overnight runs were certainly not as bullishly cold on the 24-31 period, although yesterday's runs were.  I'd lean to climo or just below climo for that period probably.  So, what would that end us up with?  +0-2F for the month maybe?  

[usedtobe]

-1 DCA

-1.4 IAD

-0.8 BWI

 

Certainly the Fri-Mon period will be way above normal and push us several degrees above normal.  The overnight runs were certainly not as bullishly cold on the 24-31 period, although yesterday's runs were.  I'd lean to climo or just below climo for that period probably.  So, what would that end us up with?  +0-2F for the month maybe?  

That would be my guess.  It will be cooler than Matt's forecast but warmer than many others and that's with the negative EPO. 

[usedtobe]

I think DCA is -1 through yesterday. It is quite possible that Matt ends up more correct than Howard or me in the end. This warm-up is going to affect a decent amount of days, despite the whole thing being rather quick. I guess somewhere in the middle of our forecasts was the right call.

Those 4 days are going to be so anomalous they will tip the month to warm even with the last week being slightly below normal temp wise.   It has been interesting watching the negative EPO battle with a really hostile AO and NAO. 

[Bob Chill]

Those 4 days are going to be so anomalous they will tip the month to warm even with the last week being slightly below normal temp wise.   It has been interesting watching the negative EPO battle with a really hostile AO and NAO. 

 

Status quo for us lately. We work hard to build a modest - dep and then the mother of all torches (no matter how short they are) efficiently wipe it out in the time it takes to make a cup of coffee. 

 

I wag'd -1 - 2 back in mid nov. Bustola it appears. Even if we end up warm it certainly wasn't a "warm" month. The overall pattern of progressive flow and short lived temp regimes fits many folks thoughts at longer leads. Mine included. We've been this way since spring. Still no signs of prolonged anything except for lack of dc snow. 

[HM]

Those 4 days are going to be so anomalous they will tip the month to warm even with the last week being slightly below normal temp wise.   It has been interesting watching the negative EPO battle with a really hostile AO and NAO. 

 

Yep. It goes to show that people like DT etc. in the main forum telling us the AO/NAO won't matter is absurd, which I tried to fight with logic/reason in that thread (probably a waste of my time). The WPO is overrated under a +AO/+EPO. Once we lost the anomalous EPO blocking, the warmth had no problem coming in, or has no problem coming in later this week.

 

I think you guys at CWG did a great job explaining to the public that this winter will have more extremes than normal...where possibly in 1 week we go from ridiculous cold to warmth. Matt and I talked about that extensively in this thread and others. Well, this week is a great example!

[HM]

Below is the GEFS 7-day temp departure from the 6z run this morning. The AO will decline after the max period now while the WPO is expecting to continue to decline. But, because the EPO is also rising, we end up with a neutral picture like 1956 and 1980. This is 1 of the kind of patterns I warned about where the -WPO can lead you astray.

 

[usedtobe]

Yep. It goes to show that people like DT etc. in the main forum telling us the AO/NAO won't matter is absurd, which I tried to fight with logic/reason in that thread (probably a waste of my time). The WPO is overrated under a +AO/+EPO. Once we lost the anomalous EPO blocking, the warmth had no problem coming in, or has no problem coming in later this week.

 

I think you guys at CWG did a great job explaining to the public that this winter will have more extremes than normal...where possibly in 1 week we go from ridiculous cold to warmth. Matt and I talked about that extensively in this thread and others. Well, this week is a great example!

The epo was the wild card but all it had to do was relax and then we torch.   I keep hoping to see signs of the vortex up north weakening.   My guess is not an awful lot until later in the season.  Matt did a real good job explaining how this year would be a roller coaster.  I think the pattern also explains why the CFS2 model has been jumping around.  This year, it doesn't take much of a change in the pattern to either torch or bring down a really cold shot. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

You have to consider that stats can be misleading.  This is not to be critical of any forecast.  Fact of the matter is that in my location I have had 12 straight days (including today) of not reaching 40 (KOKV has 1 day-Sunday, briefly), will end up with 14 (possibly 15) straight days of solid snow cover (guessing that by late Friday bare spots may start showing), have had 15" of total snow (many have had good snow, many have not), and by Sunday will probably be above normal wrt temps for the month, all because of about 4 days of warmth.  Looking at it strictly from a numbers perspective is not going to give the real picture of the first 22 days of the month, nor of the last 30 days.

 

It is quite possible that when we look back on Dec 2013 we could be looking at an above normal month that everyone (yes, it could end up that way) remembers as a great 1st month of winter.

[wxdude64]

Status quo for us lately. We work hard to build a modest - dep and then the mother of all torches (no matter how short they are) efficiently wipe it out in the time it takes to make a cup of coffee. 

 

I wag'd -1 - 2 back in mid nov. Bustola it appears. Even if we end up warm it certainly wasn't a "warm" month. The overall pattern of progressive flow and short lived temp regimes fits many folks thoughts at longer leads. Mine included. We've been this way since spring. Still no signs of prolonged anything except for lack of dc snow. 

I'm hoping for a nice fat 0.0

[HM]

You have to consider that stats can be misleading.  This is not to be critical of any forecast.  Fact of the matter is that in my location I have had 12 straight days (including today) of not reaching 40 (KOKV has 1 day-Sunday, briefly), will end up with 14 (possibly 15) straight days of solid snow cover (guessing that by late Friday bare spots may start showing), have had 15" of total snow (many have had good snow, many have not), and by Sunday will probably be above normal wrt temps for the month, all because of about 4 days of warmth.  Looking at it strictly from a numbers perspective is not going to give the real picture of the first 22 days of the month, nor of the last 30 days.

 

It is quite possible that when we look back on Dec 2013 we could be looking at an above normal month that everyone (yes, it could end up that way) remembers as a great 1st month of winter.

 

It's no doubt been colder and snowier, relative to normal, N/W of DCA. In DC itself, there will soon be a similar amount of <= -5 and >= +5 temperature anomaly days after the upcoming warm spell. This will pretty much perfectly indicate, stats-wise, exactly how the month felt, regardless of any one person's feelings. Here are DC's daily temp anomalies through yesterday.

 

[usedtobe]

It's no doubt been colder and snowier, relative to normal, N/W of DCA. In DC itself, there will soon be a similar amount of <= -5 and >= +5 temperature anomaly days after the upcoming warm spell. This will pretty much perfectly indicate, stats-wise, exactly how the month felt, regardless of any one person's feelings. Here are DC's daily temp anomalies through yesterday.

 

dc1220131-17.JPG

And this warm spell the anomalies will be bigger as we're later in the month with the same temps.  I think the perceptions of the valley folks and those around the city will be pretty different as we've had little snow and will have had two really warm spells mixed in with the cold.  To those happy with their December,  great, for me it's been pretty lame but then most are.

[WinterWxLuvr]

It's no doubt been colder and snowier, relative to normal, N/W of DCA. In DC itself, there will soon be a similar amount of <= -5 and >= +5 temperature anomaly days after the upcoming warm spell. This will pretty much perfectly indicate, stats-wise, exactly how the month felt, regardless of any one person's feelings. Here are DC's daily temp anomalies through yesterday.

 

dc1220131-17.JPG

I understand what you're saying, but even here, where we (local) consider this a great winter month so far, we are still going to be above normal come Sunday, probably 2 or 3 degrees above.  I don't think that stat does a very good job locally of describing the winter so far out here.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

Here is the month to date anoms. plus 7 day forecasted temp anoms. Added in

[MN Transplant]

Here is the month to date anoms. plus 7 day forecasted temp anoms. Added in

 

 

Nice map, Midlo.  Where did that come from?