2013-2014 Capital Weather Gang Winter Outlook

[snow.]

Those dates match up pretty well with your analogs. We've already talked about the 12/27/90 event but there was also an event on 1/7/91. Nothing shows up in the 12/27-1/2 96/97 period but there was an event on 1/9/97. Both the 1/7/91 and 1/9/97 events were mixed and the suburbs did better as usual especially with 1/7/ 91 system which I believe was a rain to snow type deal whereas the 1/9/97 was a snow to mix. All three events involved mixing and would qualify as mangled to some extent. Winter was essentially over after the 1/7/91 storm.

Yes. Though I have kind of punted 96-97 for now. I still like 1990. I've been looking at others. I like 46-47 a bit lately. I liked it last year too. I don't think we will have that epic February but I think it may be a good 1st half of winter Analog. Because I dismissed 96-97(for now). I forgot about the 1/9 event. Thanks for reminding me. I even like that period better now. So storm on 1/7-1/8. Book it

[WinterWxLuvr]

Yes. Though I have kind of punted 96-97 for now. I still like 1990. I've been looking at others. I like 46-47 a bit lately. I liked it last year too. I don't think we will have that epic February but I think it may be a good 1st half of winter Analog. Because I dismissed 96-97(for now). I forgot about the 1/9 event. Thanks for reminding me. I even like that period better now. So storm on 1/7-1/8. Book it

I hope that storm window is the only thing you like about 90-91.

[HighStakes]

Yes. Though I have kind of punted 96-97 for now. I still like 1990. I've been looking at others. I like 46-47 a bit lately. I liked it last year too. I don't think we will have that epic February but I think it may be a good 1st half of winter Analog. Because I dismissed 96-97(for now). I forgot about the 1/9 event. Thanks for reminding me. I even like that period better now. So storm on 1/7-1/8. Book it

I planned on looking at 51/52 more closely since some people have been mentioning it, but now I will take a look at 46/47 as well. I think Don Sutherland posted this morning on 2008/2009 but I have to go back and look. I will probably look at all these years more closely after the Ravens game.

[snow.]

I planned on looking at 51/52 more closely since some people have been mentioning it, but now I will take a look at 46/47 as well. I think Don Sutherland posted this morning on 2008/2009 but I have to go back and look. I will probably look at all these years more closely after the Ravens game.

 

I am not big on analogs this winter....probably relied on them less than any other winter....Not sure about 51 or 08...they weren't neutral events...not that enso needs to be a limiting factor....

[Huffwx]

That's funny, I was a senior also that year and we had a holiday bball tournament that day which ended up being postponed until the next day. For some reason I just don't remember there being a lot of ice with the storm but I do recall temps being stuck in the low-mid 30's for a couple days following the storm when the forecast called highs to reach well into the 40's.

 

We had one more decent event that year in January and that was pretty much it for the winter. February was a complete shutout.

 

That entire week was not bad in Jan--

Sunday nigh rain flipped to snow and we had 4-5 inches on Monday. Unforecast and it snowed hard a few hours. Wednesday we had a WS warning that flipped to rain way too soon and didn't verify and Friday had snow till morning, freezing rain all day that flipped to rain in the evening. So, between Dec 27 and Jan 10th we had 12 inches-- not a shabby period. 

 

Had some brutal cold in December as well-- it was the MNF game where Eagles played Cowboys and it was in the teens. Brian Mitchell ended up at QB..

 

 

I was in LYH 96-97, first year. 

 

Had an early Jan event 2-3 inches then ice all day and then Friday with an Arctic Front we had another inch. Feb had 2 events as well-- one was 5 inches with a Valentines Day BLOWN event. 

[HM]

After reviewing the discussion in this thread, here are the things that I liked and did not like:

 

1. The current "MJO" is really not a true wave. It is a "harmonic" or a ghost of a former wave and wave train-altered by Mid Latitudes. It did, however, extend the Pacific jet and help produce the Alaskan anticyclone break that delivers the cold. It also helped produce an actual STJ, working in tandem with the +AAM propagation to 30N.

 

2. While we did end up with a PNA, split flow, juicy storm near Thanksgiving and an anticyclone in the North Atlantic, it will only end up temporarily affecting the North American temperature departures. Really, it will hardly be factored in for December (just the very beginning) and they were mainly for late November. So, the worry for an El Nino-like temperature regime affecting more of December than analogs would suggest is over. There is definitely a hybrid sense to it, however, that seems to be aiding in the EPO and STJ. Definitely a good case study.

 

3. I'm starting to really like 1961-62 but do admit that it had a much easier time producing plus anomalies in the west-based NAO regions. However, it's Pacific and PV progressions look awfully similar to what may potentially be ahead. We will have a weaker version of the "NAO ridge" during the next 3-4 days, but nothing to the magnitude of 1961 (which led to 2" event in PHL 12/9). 

 

So while retrogression is expected mid-month with some warm days, it is quite possible a flat PNA ridge develops with shorter wavelengths. If cyclones begin to break in the Atlantic and alter the NAO, the pre-xmas storm will definitely be in the cards. Again, nothing major is expected for us but heck, this isn't exactly and hasn't been exactly an easy LR period.

 

 

[snow.]

HM...Right now, I see 2 possible windows for decent snow events for DC and immediate burbs - decent meaning, most everyone gets at least 2" with potentially greater amounts, esp localized in the typical NW areas as usual..These events could be bigger for DC metro, but I can't imagine either being more than 3-6" for immedate DC metro and I'd lean more toward the 1-3"/2-4" storm for the cities....this doesn't mean all snow events, but I think these 2 windows have the best potential for producing our 2 biggest events until February..I am not going to take a guess for Feb or March just yet....

 

12/27 - 1/2 (If I had to narrow - 12/28 - 1/1)

 

1/5 - 1/10 (If I had to narrow - 1/6 - 1/8)

 

I think from now through Christmas and then Jan 10 - 31st, any wintry events for city and immediate burbs are of the smaller, mangled imperfect mixy variety....dustings to 1", always potentially more for further burbs

 

Caveat: HM and I do this for fun.  It isn't just a WAG for me...I spend time analyzing....But the skill level for me is very low...so more than a random guess, but mostly for fun...HM has more skill and experience, but these windows are hard to call from far out...

 

 

After reviewing the discussion in this thread, here are the things that I liked and did not like:

 

1. The current "MJO" is really not a true wave. It is a "harmonic" or a ghost of a former wave and wave train-altered by Mid Latitudes. It did, however, extend the Pacific jet and help produce the Alaskan anticyclone break that delivers the cold. It also helped produce an actual STJ, working in tandem with the +AAM propagation to 30N.

 

2. While we did end up with a PNA, split flow, juicy storm near Thanksgiving and an anticyclone in the North Atlantic, it will only end up temporarily affecting the North American temperature departures. Really, it will hardly be factored in for December (just the very beginning) and they were mainly for late November. So, the worry for an El Nino-like temperature regime affecting more of December than analogs would suggest is over. There is definitely a hybrid sense to it, however, that seems to be aiding in the EPO and STJ. Definitely a good case study.

 

3. I'm starting to really like 1961-62 but do admit that it had a much easier time producing plus anomalies in the west-based NAO regions. However, it's Pacific and PV progressions look awfully similar to what may potentially be ahead. We will have a weaker version of the "NAO ridge" during the next 3-4 days, but nothing to the magnitude of 1961 (which led to 2" event in PHL 12/9). 

 

So while retrogression is expected mid-month with some warm days, it is quite possible a flat PNA ridge develops with shorter wavelengths. If cyclones begin to break in the Atlantic and alter the NAO, the pre-xmas storm will definitely be in the cards. Again, nothing major is expected for us but heck, this isn't exactly and hasn't been exactly an easy LR period.

 

Thanks for the update...This is a good, well articulated explanation..

 

.what do you think of my storm timeframes...agree with either?

[Ian]

matt's seasonal forecasting song

 

[HM]

Thanks...what do you think of my storm timeframes...agree with either?

 

Thanks for looking into the dates; I know that I had asked a while back. I like the first window more than the last one.

 

I feel like this "harmonic" wave moves swiftly back to the W PAC and basically allows late Dec-early Jan to have potential. Regardless of methods or analogs, it is cool that we both came up with a possible storm before the month is over. This is a lot harder when you don't have the big, big signals (like you get for a KU event) showing up.

 

Even though 1961 didn't have anything significant, it did have a pretty good pattern from late Dec into the beginning of Jan. It also had quite the cold shot around Jan 10. So, the warning of extreme temp shifts this winter is looking good.

 

My guess is that things will grow increasingly hostile second week of January. NAO will bias positive after its earlier dip and possibly a REAL MJO wave may form in the IO. But really, your guess is as good as mine.

[snow.]

matt's seasonal forecasting song

 

 

ha...I went pretty warm for December..I think it is still up in the air...real curious to see how quickly we warm after mid next week,..

[HM]

ha...I went pretty warm for December..I think it is still up in the air...real curious to see how quickly we warm after mid next week,..

 

Hey, either way DCA ends up, there was some good stuff talked about this year and general LR discussions. I know you were really fretting over December before you issued the outlook. I probably didn't help you either.

[snow.]

Hey, either way DCA ends up, there was some good stuff talked about this year and general LR discussions. I know you were really fretting over December before you issued the outlook. I probably didn't help you either.

 

It was a hard month for almost everyone.  I still like my call better than I don't like it, but that could change.  Unless we can get a period like end of November (unlikely with the EPO/WPO becoming more marginalized after next week's air mass), with the back and forth you almost always win going warm...high mins, and counterfeit midnight maxes, neuter 1-3 day cold shots...Plus we will build up a + reserve this week...maybe as high as +5 for the week...I do like a lasting cold shot around Christmas ..that could screw me up if it comes to fruition on time

[HM]

It was a hard month for almost everyone.  I still like my call better than I don't like it, but that could change.  Unless we can get a period like end of November (unlikely with the EPO/WPO becoming more marginalized after next week's air mass), with the back and forth you almost always win going warm...high mins, and counterfeit midnight maxes, neuter 1-3 day cold shots...Plus we will build up a + reserve this week...maybe as high as +5 for the week...I do like a lasting cold shot around Christmas ..that could screw me up if it comes to fruition on time

 

It's a good strategy, statistically, and will work most of the time, even if Dec. 2013 does not. A very critical time for December's outcome will occur during Dec 15-18. This is when full retrogression is in gear and a giant C USA ridge goes up. Because it is not Oct-Nov anymore, the wavelengths are longer, so the ridge isn't a PNA styled setup. Now it's broader, spanning the C USA (which is why the Aleutian High doesn't necessarily mean cold our way and it certainly will not trump the AO/EPO).

 

In 1961, this same thing occurred except that a giant cyclonic wave broke in the western Atlantic. This helped keep the heights lower along the East Coast and flipped the NAO. If this did not occur then, we would have blowtorched. The same situation will present itself this year at around the same time. The question is: will the waves behave similarly to 1961 or will the extreme positive state of this year's NAM/PV/AO prevent that outcome? This situation has prevented me from being confident, that's for sure.

 

The good news for snow lovers is that even if the NAO fails and we warm-up near Christmas, the tropical forcing should move quickly. This should provide the window of opportunity you were discussing in this thread at the end of the month.

[Huffwx]

62 had a nice January and even better first 10 days of March. Top 3 winter in LYH.. 40 inches. I'd take it in a heart beat. 

[snow.]

It's a good strategy, statistically, and will work most of the time, even if Dec. 2013 does not. A very critical time for December's outcome will occur during Dec 15-18. This is when full retrogression is in gear and a giant C USA ridge goes up. Because it is not Oct-Nov anymore, the wavelengths are longer, so the ridge isn't a PNA styled setup. Now it's broader, spanning the C USA (which is why the Aleutian High doesn't necessarily mean cold our way and it certainly will not trump the AO/EPO).

 

In 1961, this same thing occurred except that a giant cyclonic wave broke in the western Atlantic. This helped keep the heights lower along the East Coast and flipped the NAO. If this did not occur then, we would have blowtorched. The same situation will present itself this year at around the same time. The question is: will the waves behave similarly to 1961 or will the extreme positive state of this year's NAM/PV/AO prevent that outcome? This situation has prevented me from being confident, that's for sure.

 

The good news for snow lovers is that even if the NAO fails and we warm-up near Christmas, the tropical forcing should move quickly. This should provide the window of opportunity you were discussing in this thread at the end of the month.

 

 

1990 had a similar scenario maybe a week earlier with a central USA ridge, but we never got cold from it...eventually we had our good cold shot right after christmas and it was more like the situation coming up with a positive height anomaly over the coast and the air mass to our northwest..The EPO got in good position right before and we got a quasi PNA spike though displaced too far west...which leads me to believe that in the current scenario a chance our next real cold shot after this one will come around or just after new years??  I think you agree with a cold shot right around this time

[NJwinter23]

It's a good strategy, statistically, and will work most of the time, even if Dec. 2013 does not. A very critical time for December's outcome will occur during Dec 15-18. This is when full retrogression is in gear and a giant C USA ridge goes up. Because it is not Oct-Nov anymore, the wavelengths are longer, so the ridge isn't a PNA styled setup. Now it's broader, spanning the C USA (which is why the Aleutian High doesn't necessarily mean cold our way and it certainly will not trump the AO/EPO).

 

In 1961, this same thing occurred except that a giant cyclonic wave broke in the western Atlantic. This helped keep the heights lower along the East Coast and flipped the NAO. If this did not occur then, we would have blowtorched. The same situation will present itself this year at around the same time. The question is: will the waves behave similarly to 1961 or will the extreme positive state of this year's NAM/PV/AO prevent that outcome? This situation has prevented me from being confident, that's for sure.

 

The good news for snow lovers is that even if the NAO fails and we warm-up near Christmas, the tropical forcing should move quickly. This should provide the window of opportunity you were discussing in this thread at the end of the month.

 

 

Pretty good example of this battle taking place on 12z GFS in fantasy range.. The  PV lifts northward out of the East later next week and we hope it breaks off into Atlantic like 61 while the other piece goes back towards GOA. ensembles dont seem too thrilled with that idea though there has been glimmers of hope (ie yesterday aftn's euro ens)... I wonder if a stronger stratosphere this year versus say a '61 is the real hindrance.

 

Never the less the gfs it tries...

 

[HM]

1990 had a similar scenario maybe a week earlier with a central USA ridge, but we never got cold from it...eventually we had our good cold shot right after christmas and it was more like the situation coming up with a positive height anomaly over the coast and the air mass to our northwest..The EPO got in good position right before and we got a quasi PNA spike though displaced too far west...which leads me to believe that in the current scenario a chance our next real cold shot after this one will come around or just after new years??  I think you agree with a cold shot right around this time

 

Yeah, I'm not "blowtorch" either to close the month out into early January. I think another "MJO" wave will pass through the western hemisphere late Dec / early Jan and emerge into the IO. For the most part, that should help keep the cold shots coming during that time. Once the wave gets into the E IO / Indo longitudes, then we may have to battle the SE ridge.

[HM]

Pretty good example of this battle taking place on 12z GFS in fantasy range.. The  PV lifts northward out of the East later next week and we hope it breaks off into Atlantic like 61 while the other piece goes back towards GOA. ensembles dont seem too thrilled with that idea though there has been glimmers of hope (ie yesterday aftn's euro ens)... I wonder if a stronger stratosphere this year versus say a '61 is the real hindrance.

 

Never the less the gfs it tries...

 

 

 

LOL in 2 back-to-back runs, the GFS showed us both scenarios. This morning, the GFS showed us what would happen in a failure and now the 12z run pulls off a 1961. What a tough time it's going to be for LR forecasters. The one thing that I know is true: if the 1961 scenario wins out, I don't want to hear "I told you so" from the people spouting off "-WPO trumps +AO" nonsense.

[NJwinter23]

LOL in 2 back-to-back runs, the GFS showed us both scenarios. This morning, the GFS showed us what would happen in a failure and now the 12z run pulls off a 1961. What a tough time it's going to be for LR forecasters. The one thing that I know is true: if the 1961 scenario wins out, I don't want to hear "I told you so" from the people spouting off "-WPO trumps +AO" nonsense.

 

LOL seriously dude couldn't agree more. I almost am rooting against my cold/snow wishes just so that is not a possibility...

[HM]

Below are some NAM/AO charts from the CPC for 61-62, 90-91, 96-97 and this year. You can see that the 96-97 season had an opposite NAM pattern over the entire cold season due to the QBO phase (disturbed at the beginning from easterly QBO). In a smaller-scale, timing may be different week-to-week between 61 and 90; but overall, they had a classic +QBO NAM progression.

 

[snow.]

Below are some NAM/AO charts from the CPC for 61-62, 90-91, 96-97 and this year. You can see that the 96-97 season had an opposite NAM pattern over the entire cold season due to the QBO phase (disturbed at the beginning from easterly QBO). In a smaller-scale, timing may be different week-to-week between 61 and 90; but overall, they had a classic +QBO NAM progression.

 

 

 

Thanks.  I punted 96-97 a couple weeks ago...at least for the 1st half of winter...I don't really like it anymore

[HM]

 

Thanks.  I punted 96-97 a couple weeks ago...at least for the 1st half of winter...I don't really like it anymore

 

Have you added on any new ones you like or are you just sticking with 90-91-modified?

[snow.]

 

 

Have you added on any new ones you like or are you just sticking with 90-91-modified?

 

46-47 on a limited basis...will probably punt that later since that FEB was so epic...

[HM]

The best description of the pattern right now, is a hybrid ENSO, high frequency and high amplitude wave pattern. Between the Subtropics-Mid Latitudes, within the "southern stream," we nearly have a 7-wave pattern!  The old La Nina-like Subtropical Low near Hawaii and Mid Latitude cyclones across the N-C Pacific have morphed into an unusual mid-latitude PAC low anomaly with downstream ridge/split flow. The wave activity flux has been exceptional across the eastern North Pacific. Finally, there isn't one piece of guidance that has a handle on tropical forcing. This unusual combination of factors has produced a very active, wave pool-like, mid latitude flow.

 

The enlarged western Subtropical Pacific High due to warming/expanding warm pool and KWs coming along from IO will hold through early January. It will continue to favor cyclones breaking in the NW-N/C PAC and that means highs will continue to go up over the E PAC / western N. America. While this week's cold will likely not be rivaled, I think it is premature to say "very warm weather" is on the way too. The "Canadian Supply" should prevent significant warmth at the end of the month. The EURO weeklies and many outfits suggesting warmth are likely wrong, IMO.  

[Ji]

The best description of the pattern right now, is a hybrid ENSO, high frequency and high amplitude wave pattern. Between the Subtropics-Mid Latitudes, within the "southern stream," we nearly have a 7-wave pattern!  The old La Nina-like Subtropical Low near Hawaii and Mid Latitude cyclones across the N-C Pacific have morphed into an unusual mid-latitude PAC low anomaly with downstream ridge/split flow. The wave activity flux has been exceptional across the eastern North Pacific. Finally, there isn't one piece of guidance that has a handle on tropical forcing. This unusual combination of factors has produced a very active, wave pool-like, mid latitude flow.

 

The enlarged western Subtropical Pacific High due to warming/expanding warm pool and KWs coming along from IO will hold through early January. It will continue to favor cyclones breaking in the NW-N/C PAC and that means highs will continue to go up over the E PAC / western N. America. While this week's cold will likely not be rivaled, I think it is premature to say "very warm weather" is on the way too. The "Canadian Supply" should prevent significant warmth at the end of the month. The EURO weeklies and many outfits suggesting warmth are likely wrong, IMO.  

are you intersted in the event that seems to be showing up 14th-17th time frame?

[HM]

are you intersted in the event that seems to be showing up 14th-17th time frame?

 

I'm interested, but it will be messy, at best, again. But, I'm wondering if the ridge that goes up in E PAC behind that next set of waves around then displaces a better cold air source, making the next set more favorable for wintry wx (closer to XMAS). The great news is that we have an active flow with both moisture and cold air available. Both of these things will prevent a stagnant long wave pattern / +EPO blowtorch IMO.

[Bob Chill]

Appreciate your input HM. The "big warmup" has been elusive. Latest ens trends have moved away from dreaded pac zonal. It's a very fun month compared to the last couple Dec in these parts. 

[HM]

Appreciate your input HM. The "big warmup" has been elusive. Latest ens trends have moved away from dreaded pac zonal. It's a very fun month compared to the last couple Dec in these parts. 

 

No problem Bob. Just 1 look out there should have any LR forecaster nervous. The amount of waves, alone, along with the hybrid/meridional  nature to split jets, should be enough to prevent swinging for the fences.

 

I understand the big warm up calls, I do. Heck, if I was in the hot seat, I'd probably draw a typical SE ridge map or something. But, I certainly would keep the warm magnitudes in check for the reasons mentioned above.

 

Everything about the Pacific right now is a LR nightmare.

[Bob Chill]

No problem Bob. Just 1 look out there should have any LR forecaster nervous. The amount of waves, alone, along with the hybrid/meridional  nature to split jets, should be enough to prevent swinging for the fences.

 

I understand the big warm up calls, I do. Heck, if I was in the hot seat, I'd probably draw a typical SE ridge map or something. But, I certainly would keep the warm magnitudes in check for the reasons mentioned above.

 

Everything about the Pacific right now is a LR nightmare.

 

As has been stated by many, without the atlantic taking on some of the load, messy is all we got without a statistical fluke. We "may" get some help but until it's literally right above us, expectations are totally in check here. No swinging for fences from me. That's for sure. I'll be totally happy with messy for the time being. We don't get pure snow all that often anyways. Anything Dec can dish out is bonus IMO all things considered. 

[HM]

All I see on the new ECMWF is a split wavy jet, retrograding EPO high to Siberia, returning Aleutian cyclones and cold lingering around in Canada. That's no blowtorch look. Despite the stronger PV amplification next week on the ECMWF, the confluence cannot hold against the retrograde and the storm cuts way inland. Still has an in-situ CAD and ice/mix potential the following Sunday. We get another decent high; it has to be watched.