2013-2014 Capital Weather Gang Winter Outlook

[WinterWxLuvr]

Warmth has generally under performed around here this year.  When it looked like the cool shots from the NW were over early in the summer, they kept coming.  When we did warm up, it usually ended faster and was less intense than forecast.  The year has averaged right at normal in Winchester, and that after a near +5 to start the year in January.

[wxdude64]

Warmth has generally under performed around here this year.  When it looked like the cool shots from the NW were over early in the summer, they kept coming.  When we did warm up, it usually ended faster and was less intense than forecast.  The year has averaged right at normal in Winchester, and that after a near +5 to start the year in January.

Yes, this year has been a refreshing change to 'near normal' from the past three years infernos.

[snow.]

Warmth has generally under performed around here this year.  When it looked like the cool shots from the NW were over early in the summer, they kept coming.  When we did warm up, it usually ended faster and was less intense than forecast.  The year has averaged right at normal in Winchester, and that after a near +5 to start the year in January.

 

I think you are mostly right, though the 1st few weeks of October defied the trend....The new trend for the last 3-4 weeks or so has been cold winning out in the means....for around 3 weeks now we have averaged almost right at -2....so cold, but not that impressive when we have had 17 cold days and only 6 warm....that could be a continuing problem...if we are only getting meek neg departures when we the ratio of cold: warm is so high...which means we really need longer cold shots...3 warm, 3 cold, 3 warm, 3 cold and we are almost always going to be + departure...so we really need a broad-based trough with entrenched cold...transient cold shots won't cut it even though they might be real deal...

[MN Transplant]

1. Warmth

2. Wind

3. Dry

Heavy emphasis on #1.

People don't like wind, but we really are one of the calmest regions in the country. With precip, what we do really well is months of dry punctuated by some sort of deluge. And then dry again.

[WinterWxLuvr]

People don't like wind, but we really are one of the calmest regions in the country. With precip, what we do really well is months of dry punctuated by some sort of deluge. And then dry again.

Amen.

 

I know it's different out here than down at sea level, but the majority of the time, we lose decent winter events to dry more than to warm.

[Snowstorms]

Thanks for the nice words. I think 2008-09 is so-so but it's not high on my list. That was a solid -PDO, La Niña, solar-min, +QBO winter. It was a lot more in that direction than this year is going to be, which could be good or bad for us. We'll see... 

 

While the majority of the years in the 80s-90s were +PDO, there were times when that signal was reduced or even reversed. The years that Matt and I have been talking about were those types of years, generally. But I do admit that the 1985 season's PDO, for example, is too positive and its similarities with November 2013's warm pool will probably not last. The AMO state is not as important in the winter, as it is in the summer but the tripole I suppose is a factor.

 

As you can see, sometimes years take a turn despite the long-term phases (the N PAC became a hybrid setup and the Atlantic did as well):

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/mean_anom/November.85.anomaly.gif

 

Yes i see what your implying. Well if you look at the overall picture, despite a solar max this year we haven't really seen anomalous solar activity, its been way below normal. Sunspots may have seen a uptick of recently, however geomagnetic conditions remain stable. The AP index is relatively low.  2008-09 would make a good analog, there were some differences as you've stated, but it could be reasonable to use. I prefer 61-62 as well. Majority of the late 50's through the 60's had more neutral ENSO anomalies. 

 

I like your 1990-91 analog, alot of similarities to this year as you pointed out.. How about 66-67? Thought we dont have as much data going back that far its a reasonable analog in the midst of a -PDO and a neutral ENSO anomaly coming of a El Nino the previous year. It featured a +QBO West i believe. 

 

 

lol I do remember that!

 

Yes, 1993-94 was all about the record snow cover / source region cold and bouts of favorable Pacific sending it this way. That was some of the most brutal cold I've ever experienced.

 

We would get inland runner type storm tracks but the low-level cold was too dense to be scoured out in time. ZR down my way while you guys in NYC cashed in.

 

Jan 1994 was beyond cold in my area. Coldest January on record. Got down to -23.8F in my area, so close to the lowest temperature of -25F set in the 80s. This year, when we have seen cold shots in the East, have been brutal, though transient but brutal. Could it be linked to the cooler Arctic this year as opposed to recent years? The models show a nice build up of negative anomalies across Northern Canada through the coming week which should bode well for us, perhaps, in the long term. In recent years, the blocking has favored the other side of the globe, while we got torched.    

[HM]

Yes i see what your implying. Well if you look at the overall picture, despite a solar max this year we haven't really seen anomalous solar activity, its been way below normal. Sunspots may have seen a uptick of recently, however geomagnetic conditions remain stable. The AP index is relatively low.  2008-09 would make a good analog, there were some differences as you've stated, but it could be reasonable to use. I prefer 61-62 as well. Majority of the late 50's through the 60's had more neutral ENSO anomalies. 

 

I like your 1990-91 analog, alot of similarities to this year as you pointed out.. How about 66-67? Thought we dont have as much data going back that far its a reasonable analog in the midst of a -PDO and a neutral ENSO anomaly coming of a El Nino the previous year. It featured a +QBO West i believe.

 

There is a lot of disagreement in the research-world and mixed signals coming from the solar-weather connection papers. I'm not so sure you can safely say that the winter will be a 08-09 repeat because of geomagnetic activity. I also have to disagree with you that our state is like 2008-09. The ionosphere, then, shrunk to very low-levels; the sun was virtually spotless, and the main contributors to solar variability were coronal hole wind streams.

 

This year, so far, has seen below normal geomagnetic activity but it has seen quite an increase in sunspots/flux (a subsequent geomagnetic rise may be ahead too).

http://www.solen.info/solar/

 

To say that this is quiet or like 08-09 is simply wrong. Now from the only peer-reviewed stuff I have, it is the solar flux that is correlated with the stratosphere and AO the best. Currently, long-term averages are in the "can't help you" ranges but shorter-term averages are solidly in "solar max" territory.

 

As for 1966-67, I do not like it. Not only did it follow an El Nino, it continued its regime and held warm water all across the C Pacific, despite the MEI going into negative territory. Of course, I have been suggesting a possible El Nino-like period ahead; but, I think the overall winter flow will not be like that.

[HM]

To illustrate my first point about the warm pool, I've attached the closest 6 analogs to it that had a neutral ENSO. The top image is the SST anomaly for November and the bottom is the surface temperature anomaly for the following December. To disregard the Pacific is definitely a mistake, as everyone in this forum knows already. It was in this area that Cohen blew his DC forecast last year, despite the correct AO call.

 

Note that 1961 was subtracted from 1950-2000. If I left the 1981-2010 climo period, the anomaly positions were pretty similar.

 

Over in the Philly Forum, I broadened the sample size a little bit by including all ENSO. Again, these are based strictly on warm pool location in NE PAC for November and nothing else. Even here, December was the most conflicting month with 3 frigid, 3 cold more toward the West and 1 El Nino-like. So to assess something like the background state, it may be best to use the DJF image.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39838-mediumlong-range-thread/?p=2475675

[Midlo Snow Maker]

2nd coldest February ever recorded at DCA since mid 1940s

I remember coming back from the lake chase driving through single digits all the way to bwi and having lake effect snow in the back of my truck all the way to RIC. I buried the front yard that month 12' throughout

[WEATHER53]

The levee broke on 2/2007 lake effect.

[HM]

Latest trends today have Matt's back. The stratosphere has been mildly disturbed so far this autumn, with okay wave activity. A classic wave 2 split will occur in about a week. Initially, this may seem like a good thing for blocking, as one end of the dipole heads into Siberia and the other into Canada. However, the Siberian-end stays stronger, strong enough to "carry" the weaker-end of the dipole (our side) with it a little bit, pushing it right over Greenland in 10 days.

 

So, while the -AAM to 60N / gwo propagation period expected at the start of December allows subpolar anticyclones, they just might stay clear of Greenland because of this PV. If this is true, the -NAO idea of mine is dead wrong. However, a west based -NAO can still develop once the PV departs, but then what will the Pacific be doing by then?

 

Either way, the idea of a very warm northern-tier, with an El Nino-hybrid type pattern, is still there, assuming the forcing continues to propagate back into the W. PAC. 

 

Some concerns:

1. I still don't think models have a handle yet on the tropical forcing/MJO.

2. The window for easterly flow at 60N will continue beyond early Dec, so the -NAO could simply be put on hold until that PV spins out of there.

3. Cold air availability is still better than it has been lately.

[snow.]

Latest trends today have Matt's back. The stratosphere has been mildly disturbed so far this autumn, with okay wave activity. A classic wave 2 split will occur in about a week. Initially, this may seem like a good thing for blocking, as one end of the dipole heads into Siberia and the other into Canada. However, the Siberian-end stays stronger, strong enough to "carry" the weaker-end of the dipole (our side) with it a little bit, pushing it right over Greenland in 10 days.

 

So, while the -AAM to 60N / gwo propagation period expected at the start of December allows subpolar anticyclones, they just might stay clear of Greenland because of this PV. If this is true, the -NAO idea of mine is dead wrong. However, a west based -NAO can still develop once the PV departs, but then what will the Pacific be doing by then?

 

Either way, the idea of a very warm northern-tier, with an El Nino-hybrid type pattern, is still there, assuming the forcing continues to propagate back into the W. PAC. 

 

Some concerns:

1. I still don't think models have a handle yet on the tropical forcing/MJO.

2. The window for easterly flow at 60N will continue beyond early Dec, so the -NAO could simply be put on hold until that PV spins out of there.

3. Cold air availability is still better than it has been lately.

 

Thanks for the analysis..Wes mentioned his doubts about a cold December in another thread...

 

Without blockiness, it is very hard for us to get more than -1 in december or thereabout...there are rare exceptions like 1983 that were colder, but that took a perfect cold push and a 3 day period with a departure of like -70....I am not so jazzed about how warm I went with all the cold air available as you mention, but without a -AO we are going to be around normal at best when it comes to cold...

[HM]

Thanks for the analysis..Wes mentioned his doubts about a cold December in another thread...

 

Without blockiness, it is very hard for us to get more than -1 in december or thereabout...there are rare exceptions like 1983 that were colder, but that took a perfect cold push and a 3 day period with a departure of like -70....I am not so jazzed about how warm I went with all the cold air available as you mention, but without a -AO we are going to be around normal at best when it comes to cold...

 

I like the idea that the DC-area doesn't "blowtorch" as they say these days for December. The split flow / PNA pattern to begin the month could set up some decent cold departures in the southern CONUS. I finally see signs on the ensembles (all of them) that they are progressing the western subtropical Pacific Anticyclone eastward. This suggests they are seeing the MJO more and more.

 

Notice in about a week, the 60N belt is filled with breaking anticyclones and the mid latitude Pacific is filled with breaking cyclones. This is the classic AAM progression I was talking about. The forcing will help extend the jet more in the Pacific as we head into December, and force the warmer heights over Alaksa/W. Canada.

 

Again, this December has the potential to be an odd month, departure-wise, given the couple of regimes expected. As long as the monster PV doesn't retrograde into Alaska, we will be okay.  

[HM]

Matt, a while back in the philly forum, I mentioned a possible storm before Christmas (12/22-23). I like the idea of a widespread, messy, hybrid A/B storm that gives us some wintry wx but nothing major. The big signal here is that it could potentially be a large storm that affects many areas.

Are you getting anything around this time? I know you are DC-centric, so don't go to out of your way if you only have data for your immediate area.

[Bob Chill]

HM, I curious to your thoughts on the NAO. It's obviously been no help so far and that's not really a big deal considering we are still a few weeks away from climo starting to tilt in our favor. There have been numerous signs from both the gfs/euro op and ens that semi-favorable ridging could work its way into the flow. I've seen it off and on for a week or 2 now. 

 

This morning's 6z gfs/gefs again is teasing at the end of the run. Is this just noise beyond skill range or is it a legitimate indication that some blocking may enter the picture as we move into Dec? I've watched enough model runs through the years to know that a delayed transition is typical to break out of an entrenched pattern. Models start tossing ideas out well before anything meaningful happens. I'm obviously rooting for some blocking so my rose colored glasses are always on. 

 

Lastly, looks like some form of a decent coastal is shaping up next week. Is this something that could help build heights into GL as the system moves into the maritimes? Reason I'm asking is that there seems to be signs of yet another closed low tracking the desert SW towards the end of the month. IMO- this is something worth watching at our latitude and a the first week of Dec period may be our first shot of an accum snowfall. But it will most likely require some blocking or temps will continue to be an major issue. With nothing to hold an airmass in place our odds decrease significantly. Especially early in the season. 

 

TIA! 

[HM]

Bob, what we've got going on is a wave train moving through the Pacific Ocean. This is why the modeling has been so inconsistent. The shorter wavelength but higher frequency is a recipe for that kind of thing. They also have had a tough time resolving the MJO, although there are signs they are finally doing-so. The recent mountain torque from East Asia will combine with the MJO to add westerly flow across the Pacific. This will help lengthen those waves again and perhaps bring skill back to the medium range solutions.

As for the NAO, you have to anticipate not only what goes on in the troposphere but what goes on in the stratosphere. The global winds, AAM etc. do favor the potential for anticyclones to break in the N. Atlantic through the first couple of weeks of December. The first "shot" happens in 3-5 days but the stratospheric vortex rips it a new one. There will be another potential, as you indicated, in the extended-range. As the PNA / split flow pattern takes over, that will also help. If the NAO cannot flip by mid-December, it probably won't. Things will grow increasingly inhospitable the later we get in the month, at least from what we can see now.

A progressive / pseudo-split with PNA tendency can definitely bring wintry events to our region. I don't really like next week's setup and agree with JI, overall. But the chances do go up in December for sure!

[HM]

For what it's worth, new euro looks El Nino-like day 7-10.

[snow.]

Matt, a while back in the philly forum, I mentioned a possible storm before Christmas (12/22-23). I like the idea of a widespread, messy, hybrid A/B storm that gives us some wintry wx but nothing major. The big signal here is that it could potentially be a large storm that affects many areas.

Are you getting anything around this time? I know you are DC-centric, so don't go to out of your way if you only have data for your immediate area.

 

 

Thanks. Interesting.  I have not put any time into storm windows yet.  But I can relay what happened around that time in my 2 primary analogs.

 

1990 - we had a big cold push around Christmas...It was actually our coldest of the winter.  On the 27-28th with cold air entrenched, I believe a storm tracked to our west and we got a snow to zr to rain event.  It was actually a pretty bad ice event I think for the western burbs...I think it was generally a 3-5" event before the changeover with 6+ for the far NW areas.....I was in Atlanta...someone here might recall better....so nothing in the 12/23-4 window....

 

1996  - I believe we had a weak clipper on the 19th....that was generally a T-1" type event so nothing memorable....so nothing in your window...I might start to look into threat windows a bit more...We have both had some success with these, especially you...February 8th last winter was one of your finest calls...You called for a potential KU 7-10 days out and stuck with a eastern storm track even when models were showing a track into the midwest...

[HM]

Thanks. Interesting.  I have not put any time into storm windows yet.  But I can relay what happened around that time in my 2 primary analogs.

 

1990 - we had a big cold push around Christmas...It was actually our coldest of the winter.  On the 27-28th with cold air entrenched, I believe a storm tracked to our west and we got a snow to zr to rain event.  It was actually a pretty bad ice event I think for the western burbs...I think it was generally a 3-5" event before the changeover with 6+ for the far NW areas.....I was in Atlanta...someone here might recall better....so nothing in the 12/23-4 window....

 

1996  - I believe we had a weak clipper on the 19th....that was generally a T-1" type event so nothing memorable....so nothing in your window...I might start to look into threat windows a bit more...We have both had some success with these, especially you...February 8th last winter was one of your finest calls...You called for a potential KU 7-10 days out and stuck with a eastern storm track even when models were showing a track into the midwest...

Thanks...and I really appreciate the nice words, means a lot.

 

The latest Roundy update:

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/hovsdet/7.5S_7.5N/2013.png

slower filter:

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/hovsdetmjo/7.5S_7.5N/2013.png

 

This is a very strong reason why I like the period just before Christmas.

 

[snow.]

For what it's worth, new euro looks El Nino-like day 7-10.

 

yes...nice nino look in the pacific....+PNA, split flow, aleutian low....maybe we can get something to happen...of course it would be nice if the atlantic was better

 

[snow.]

Thanks...and I really appreciate the nice words, means a lot.

 

The latest Roundy update:

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/hovsdet/7.5S_7.5N/2013.png

slower filter:

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/hovsdetmjo/7.5S_7.5N/2013.png

 

This is a very strong reason why I like the period just before Christmas.

 

 

thanks..you always force me to do research which is good...

[WEATHER53]

yes...nice nino look in the pacific....+PNA, split flow, aleutian low....maybe we can get something to happen...of course it would be nice if the atlantic was better

 

Mongolian high pressure showing up.  Forecast for a mild December are going to be wrong as the first half is clearly looking cold. Trend is your friend is one of the correct addages from internet weather boards especially when the trend just started about 10-14 days ago.

[Sparky]

the funny thing is that is not very different than my forecast about 2 months ago in the "just for fun winter forecast thread", or it was called something like that.

 

OK try this link

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/40955-if-someone-forced-you-to-make-your-winter-forecast-today/

[HighStakes]

Thanks. Interesting.  I have not put any time into storm windows yet.  But I can relay what happened around that time in my 2 primary analogs.

 

1990 - we had a big cold push around Christmas...It was actually our coldest of the winter.  On the 27-28th with cold air entrenched, I believe a storm tracked to our west and we got a snow to zr to rain event.  It was actually a pretty bad ice event I think for the western burbs...I think it was generally a 3-5" event before the changeover with 6+ for the far NW areas.....I was in Atlanta...someone here might recall better....so nothing in the 12/23-4 window....

 

1996  - I believe we had a weak clipper on the 19th....that was generally a T-1" type event so nothing memorable....so nothing in your window...I might start to look into threat windows a bit more...We have both had some success with these, especially you...February 8th last winter was one of your finest calls...You called for a potential KU 7-10 days out and stuck with a eastern storm track even when models were showing a track into the midwest...

The 1990 event was the best of that winter. I don't remember much in the way of ice with that one. My recollection was that it was poorly predicted. I was living in Owings Mills back then and we got almost 7inches. Snow started mid afternoon then got heavy fast and then abruptly shut off in the early evening and ended as light zr. Would have been a traffic nightmare if school was in session and not a holiday week. I don't remember any forecast for more than 2 inches before a changeover. My guess that it was an overrunning event where the precip outraced the warm air that followed the storm.

 

As far as something in the 12/22, 12/23 range there hasn't been much. We did have a small event on 12/23 1998. 1-4 inches fell depending on location. I think there was some mixing inside the beltways with that one. There also was an anafront type event on 12/19 2000 that dropped between 1-4 as well.

[HM]

Well, how about in the days before 12/22-24? Let's not narrow things down to those days. The speed at which the forcing arrives from the W. PAC will be the ultimate decider on when the best threat window is for mid-Dec. It could easily come soon and I'm too slow. But again, it doesn't look anything like a KU or significant snowfall.

[Huffwx]

The 1990 event was the best of that winter. I don't remember much in the way of ice with that one. My recollection was that it was poorly predicted. I was living in Owings Mills back then and we got almost 7inches. Snow started mid afternoon then got heavy fast and then abruptly shut off in the early evening and ended as light zr. Would have been a traffic nightmare if school was in session and not a holiday week. I don't remember any forecast for more than 2 inches before a changeover. My guess that it was an overrunning event where the precip outraced the warm air that followed the storm.

 

As far as something in the 12/22, 12/23 range there hasn't been much. We did have a small event on 12/23 1998. 1-4 inches fell depending on location. I think there was some mixing inside the beltways with that one. There also was an anafront type event on 12/19 2000 that dropped between 1-4 as well.

 

The 1990 event was the best of that winter. I don't remember much in the way of ice with that one. My recollection was that it was poorly predicted. I was living in Owings Mills back then and we got almost 7inches. Snow started mid afternoon then got heavy fast and then abruptly shut off in the early evening and ended as light zr. Would have been a traffic nightmare if school was in session and not a holiday week. I don't remember any forecast for more than 2 inches before a changeover. My guess that it was an overrunning event where the precip outraced the warm air that followed the storm.

 

As far as something in the 12/22, 12/23 range there hasn't been much. We did have a small event on 12/23 1998. 1-4 inches fell depending on location. I think there was some mixing inside the beltways with that one. There also was an anafront type event on 12/19 2000 that dropped between 1-4 as well.

 

Interesting about the 12/27-28 event. I was in Wilmington, DE-- my senior year of HS. Had Bball practice and I remember being pumped there was a Winter Storm Watch-- 3-5 or something like that. Snow kicked in early evening-- 5 or so and we hustled back to my buddies. Snowed heavily all evening and then changed to sleet after midnight-- ending as rain in the AM. 

 

I'd say-- 5 or so of snow, Another inch of sleet and coating on top of ZR. 

 

I thought the ice was underforecast-- but I was sans weather radio or anything at my friends. 

[HighStakes]

Interesting about the 12/27-28 event. I was in Wilmington, DE-- my senior year of HS. Had Bball practice and I remember being pumped there was a Winter Storm Watch-- 3-5 or something like that. Snow kicked in early evening-- 5 or so and we hustled back to my buddies. Snowed heavily all evening and then changed to sleet after midnight-- ending as rain in the AM. 

 

I'd say-- 5 or so of snow, Another inch of sleet and coating on top of ZR. 

 

I thought the ice was underforecast-- but I was sans weather radio or anything at my friends. 

That's funny, I was a senior also that year and we had a holiday bball tournament that day which ended up being postponed until the next day. For some reason I just don't remember there being a lot of ice with the storm but I do recall temps being stuck in the low-mid 30's for a couple days following the storm when the forecast called highs to reach well into the 40's.

 

We had one more decent event that year in January and that was pretty much it for the winter. February was a complete shutout.

[gymengineer]

That 12/1990 storm is in KU, in the moderate snowstorm "Near Miss" section: "The December 1990 case..initially did not appear to present a threat for producing moderate or heavy snowfall because of the absence of a significant upper-level trough." .

 

16,000 DC area residents lost power at the peak. From photos, it looks like there were downed trees/tree limbs and wires as a result of significant period of freezing rain on top of snow. 

[snow.]

Matt, a while back in the philly forum, I mentioned a possible storm before Christmas (12/22-23). I like the idea of a widespread, messy, hybrid A/B storm that gives us some wintry wx but nothing major. The big signal here is that it could potentially be a large storm that affects many areas.

Are you getting anything around this time? I know you are DC-centric, so don't go to out of your way if you only have data for your immediate area.

 

HM...Right now, I see 2 possible windows for decent snow events for DC and immediate burbs - decent meaning, most everyone gets at least 2" with potentially greater amounts, esp localized in the typical NW areas as usual..These events could be bigger for DC metro, but I can't imagine either being more than 3-6" for immedate DC metro and I'd lean more toward the 1-3"/2-4" storm for the cities....this doesn't mean all snow events, but I think these 2 windows have the best potential for producing our 2 biggest events until February..I am not going to take a guess for Feb or March just yet....

 

12/27 - 1/2 (If I had to narrow - 12/28 - 1/1)

 

1/5 - 1/10 (If I had to narrow - 1/6 - 1/8)

 

I think from now through Christmas and then Jan 10 - 31st, any wintry events for city and immediate burbs are of the smaller, mangled imperfect mixy variety....dustings to 1", always potentially more for further burbs

 

Caveat: HM and I do this for fun.  It isn't just a WAG for me...I spend time analyzing....But the skill level for me is very low...so more than a random guess, but mostly for fun...HM has more skill and experience, but these windows are hard to call from far out...

[HighStakes]

HM...Right now, I see 2 possible windows for decent snow events for DC and immediate burbs - decent meaning, most everyone gets at least 2" with potentially greater amounts, esp localized in the typical NW areas as usual..These events could be bigger for DC metro, but I can't imagine either being more than 3-6" for immedate DC metro and I'd lean more toward the 1-3"/2-4" storm for the cities....this doesn't mean all snow events, but I think these 2 windows have the best potential for producing our 2 biggest events until February..I am not going to take a guess for Feb or March just yet....

 

12/27 - 1/2 (If I had to narrow - 12/28 - 1/1)

 

1/5 - 1/10 (If I had to narrow - 1/6 - 1/8)

 

I think from now through Christmas and then Jan 10 - 31st, any wintry events for city and immediate burbs are of the smaller, mangled imperfect mixy variety....dustings to 1", always potentially more for further burbs

 

Caveat: HM and I do this for fun.  It isn't just a WAG for me...I spend time analyzing....But the skill level for me is very low...so more than a random guess, but mostly for fun...HM has more skill and experience, but these windows are hard to call from far out...

Those dates match up pretty well with your analogs. We've already talked about the 12/27/90 event but there was also an event on 1/7/91. Nothing shows up in the 12/27-1/2 96/97 period but there was an event on 1/9/97. Both the 1/7/91 and 1/9/97 events were mixed and the suburbs did better as usual especially with 1/7/ 91 system which I believe was a rain to snow type deal whereas the 1/9/97 was a snow to mix. All three events involved mixing and would qualify as mangled to some extent. Winter was essentially over after the 1/7/91 storm.