2013-2014 Capital Weather Gang Winter Outlook

[snow.]

Some great points, Matt. All of the large scale oscillations and cycles have been going on for centuries but we are restricted to using less than 100 years as "analogs". If we had accurate data going back just 500 years the picture would be much more clear for not only this year but all years. This particular year has no good analogs. If anything, it's a "new" analog to be used in the future.

Then there's the back yard mentality. I'm as as guilty as any. Just because a particular year didn't produce in my yard doesn't mean the same general setup won't be productive if it reoccurs. Not talking blockbuster or anything like that. Just being good enough vs terrible. A hundred miles is a pretty short distance but that distance can make or break my or anybody's yard irt to snow, I end up thinking a particular year sucks when in reality it was good enough but the chips didn't fall.

It can snow in a bad pattern year. Just ask RIC, Orange County, and St Mary's County. We're due right? LOL

 

 

i don't think you were here in 96-97, but you had at least 17-18" in Rockville that winter...DCA had 7"....so as you said we can't get too nimby...though there is a tendency to regress to the mean in terms of attitude...the Leesburg guys would have been much happier with their 20" last winter if we had done better...The intangibles are what keep me excited...some of my favorite events are ones nobody remembers...the totals don't tell us everything

 

I really hope I am wrong about December snow...I know people love it because of Christmas, but I love it because of sun angle...In December 2010 I had almost 2 weeks of snowcover in the shade on concrete from that 2" clipper...

 

I am way too insane to just be chasing a KU every winter...If that was my benchmark I'd be on suicide watch for 4 months....I HAVE to find beauty in disgusting, mangled events...I have no choice....It sounds nuts, but my mental health in the winter is contingent on the addiction to 0.2" events because they actually materialize a handful of times.....So I will be tracking the 0.04" monstrosities that come from the west and get inhaled by the mountains...I have no choice...then I figure the 3-4" event will feel like a HECS to me...

[uncle W]

DCA got 15" in 1961-62...Add the Ash Wednesday storm in March and it wasn't a bad winter...1961 was one of the warmer falls on record and 2013 isn't desite a higher AO index...1956-57 was mentioned and that was a year when we saw our coldest temperatures with a very positive AO...1961-62 had a roller coaster AO...More negative at the beginning and end than during the middle winter...A positive AO usually gives us a lousy storm track...

 

[mitchnick]

i don't think you were here in 96-97, but you had at least 17-18" in Rockville that winter...DCA had 7"....so as you said we can't get too nimby...though there is a tendency to regress to the mean in terms of attitude...the Leesburg guys would have been much happier with their 20" last winter if we had done better...The intangibles are what keep me excited...some of my favorite events are ones nobody remembers...the totals don't tell us everything

 

I really hope I am wrong about December snow...I know people love it because of Christmas, but I love it because of sun angle...In December 2010 I had almost 2 weeks of snowcover in the shade on concrete from that 2" clipper...

 

I am way too insane to just be chasing a KU every winter...If that was my benchmark I'd be on suicide watch for 4 months....I HAVE to find beauty in disgusting, mangled events...I have no choice....It sounds nuts, but my mental health in the winter is contingent on the addiction to 0.2" events because they actually materialize a handful of times.....So I will be tracking the 0.04" monstrosities that come from the west and get inhaled by the mountains...I have no choice...then I figure the 3-4" event will feel like a HECS to me...

     And it's for that general reason that I really don't want to read any seasonal forecasts; I understand our climo all too well. I prefer to just plug my ears, close my eyes, and start singing when the seasonal forecasts come out!

     There was something great about every late fall/winter as I reminisce back to the 70's- mid-90's (before the internet exploded) when dreams of heavy snow were always possible with the next NWS 5-day forecast issued around 4:30 PM every day. Basically, if it's probably not going to snow in the coming months, I really don't want to know. And for that matter, if it's going to snow a lot, I don't need to know that now either.

      I know you like to forecast and I certainly don't have anything negative to say to anyone on that score (obviously!), but its never been my thing. I value the suspense of not knowing if it will snow and savor the hope that it will. And since "hope" is quite often all we're left with around here, I prefer not having anyone burst my bubble as crazy as that sounds. Oh, and I don't want to know how I'm going to die either, so it's not just predicting wx!

[HighStakes]

Good job and good luck on the outlook and good following discussion. I find the 2 analogs interesting, especially 96/97. If memory serves correct there was a ridiculous torch the first week of January then we entered a couple of quite cold periods with some frigid days around mid month. January probably would have ended up very close to average if not for the insane positive departures.

[mattie g]

Good job and good luck on the outlook and good following discussion. I find the 2 analogs interesting, especially 96/97. If memory serves correct there was a ridiculous torch the first week of January then we entered a couple of quite cold periods with some frigid days around mid month. January probably would have ended up very close to average if not for the insane positive departures.

I remember well the January '97 torch. I was in college, and over the semester break I was visiting my girlfriend who lived in Silver Spring. We walked around the Mall in t-shirts, and I got shat on by a pigeon.

Those were the days...

[Bob Chill]

I'm with ya, matt. My benchmark of a good snow growing up was enough to cover the grass completely with some road stickage for a day off school and hours on the hill. I haven't changed much at all.

Yes, big events kick ass but they are uncommon and the years that produce one are special. I can be totally satisfied without one but man do I get bummed when we have years like the last 2. Even worse my kids missed out on 2 years of their youth without even hitting the hill once.

Some trackable events that produce enough for a couple mornings on the hill is really all I need to check a box on the "good enough" winter score card. With that being said, I'm pretty confident that box will be checked this year.

[PhineasC]

Despite the rather depressing (but well-supported) forecast, the ensuing discussion has given me some hope. 

[PhineasC]

I'm with ya, matt. My benchmark of a good snow growing up was enough to cover the grass completely with some road stickage for a day off school and hours on the hill. I haven't changed much at all.

Yes, big events kick ass but they are uncommon and the years that produce one are special. I can be totally satisfied without one but man do I get bummed when we have years like the last 2. Even worse my kids missed out on 2 years of their youth without even hitting the hill once.

Some trackable events that produce enough for a couple mornings on the hill is really all I need to check a box on the "good enough" winter score card. With that being said, I'm pretty confident that box will be checked this year.

Just a solid 3-5/4-8 event with cold temps would be pretty awesome.

[Yeoman]

Does zwyts not post here anymore?? Anyway, do not believe it will be nearly this mild.

He posts under Teninch Johnson

[EasternUSWX]

He posts under Teninch Johnson

 

Epic win 

[WEATHER53]

He posts under Teninch Johnson

I laughed so much to tear up. Clever.

[WxUSAF]

I listened in Matt.  Well done!  Listening to Elliot (especially when he laughs) makes me want to stab my ears and drive into a telephone pole, so I hope you appreciate the sacrifice I made!  

[snow.]

I listened in Matt.  Well done!  Listening to Elliot (especially when he laughs) makes me want to stab my ears and drive into a telephone pole, so I hope you appreciate the sacrifice I made!  

 

Thanks man!

[Supercane]

Matt, very good write-up. One thing that always gives me a glimmer of hope in these warm-winter forecasts is the winter of 99-00. It had a consistently +AO, +NAO, -PDO, strong La Nina and above avg temps...and yet we had that epic Jan event.

 

Hindsight is 20/20, but was there any long-range signal or reason for that event? Would we be able to, in a seasonal forecast, assess the odds of something like that...or was it just a complete fluke?

[snow.]

Matt, very good write-up. One thing that always gives me a glimmer of hope in these warm-winter forecasts is the winter of 99-00. It had a consistently +AO, +NAO, -PDO, strong La Nina and above avg temps...and yet we had that epic Jan event.

 

Hindsight is 20/20, but was there any long-range signal or reason for that event? Would we be able to, in a seasonal forecast, assess the odds of something like that...or was it just a complete fluke?

 

 

kind of a fluke...we got a split flow pattern and we got lucky and capitalized...I don't think anyone could have seen that pattern from more than a couple weeks out tops....maybe a met would know more about whether we had a SSW or whether the MJO was in an ideal phase and progression...One thing about mod and strong ninas is you usually get a big event(s) somewhere...but it is usually early or late season, and doesn't usually crush everyone...

 

March 56 - KU New York

Dec/Jan 70-71 - KU hit us good...great pattern

Dec 73 - Big east coast storm and hit us good

Mar 1976 - Big storm inland

Jan 1985 - sick pattern - we should have gotten more

Feb 1989 - Huge storms crushed the south (ORF cleaned up)....and the near miss for us that got warning criteria snows almost to Wes

Mar 1999 - Awesome pattern and the 2 big storms - 3/9, 3/14

Jan 2000 - obviously

Jan 2011 plus 12/26 of course

 

So in a strong mod nina there will usually be a big event(s)...doesn't always hit us..

 

so Jan 25th in particular was anomalous and just a perfect timed storm....it isn't everyday that you get accumulating snow in Myrtle Beach and 20" at RDU....but there is precedent for something fluky

[HM]

 

HM,

 

of your twenty or so neutral years,  almost all of the snowy ones were prior to 1981-1982.   Lots of the 60s once had a negative PNA but and a negative AO and then briefly popped a positive PNA in an otherwise mostly RPNA season.  Since 1981-1982, our neutral winters have been really lame as a rule and have averaged a little above normal temp wise while the early ones were just the opposite.  I haven't composited all the years separately. I'm still worried about the PDO modulating the pattern some if we can't get the AO negative. 

 

Anyway, this is a tough year to figure.  We need another 2009-2010 so we can be confident of the pattern.

Matt and I discussed the same thing back in the Keith Allen thread. Last year and 2003-04 both averaged a significant -AO for the season. Both also had a touch of El Nino to them, with 03-04 following the 02-03 event and last year pushing the threshold in the autumn. Both at some point had significant cold air, a STJ and blocking to work with and yet...you guys know the results. I suppose it could have been dumb luck.

Is there something going on since the 1980s that would prevent neutral seasons from delivering snow to the area? It is a tough question. I suppose it could be the overall state of the circulation, oceans etc. since then that may just keep systems gliding past you. The good news is that this trend should end soon, decadal-length speaking. The Atlantic will continue to cool, the PDO will remain cool and begin to approach the next phase shift (like late 70s), the sun will remain weaker and the stratosphere has and will continue to improve (we have restored the ozone loss from the 80s/90s. Models suggest further improvement of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation for next several decades).

[snow.]

 

Matt and I discussed the same thing back in the Keith Allen thread. Last year and 2003-04 both averaged a significant -AO for the season. Both also had a touch of El Nino to them, with 03-04 following the 02-03 event and last year pushing the threshold in the autumn. Both at some point had significant cold air, a STJ and blocking to work with and yet...you guys know the results. I suppose it could have been dumb luck.

Is there something going on since the 1980s that would prevent neutral seasons from delivering snow to the area? It is a tough question. I suppose it could be the overall state of the circulation, oceans etc. since then that may just keep systems gliding past you. The good news is that this trend should end soon, decadal-length speaking. The Atlantic will continue to cool, the PDO will remain cool and begin to approach the next phase shift (like late 70s), the sun will remain weaker and the stratosphere has and will continue to improve (we have restored the ozone loss from the 80s/90s. Models suggest further improvement of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation for next several decades).

 

 

HM...I think some of it is luck of course...do you remember February 2004 in the Carolinas?   They had a sick pattern with a handful of wintry mix and snow events culminating in that monster storm on 2/26-27...I'd imagine some of that is luck in terms of us missing the whole pattern...then of course earlier in the winter NYC was getting storm after storm...so it seems like we were stuck in between a lot of the time...even 12/5/03 was a bit too far west for most of us (IAD did decent despite Cantore being there)...I got 14", but I think that winter had things been just slightly different could have been a 20-25" winter...it isn't like we had a storm track to our west the whole winter...and thus really had no shot...

[snow.]

My Radio segment this morning

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3O94dNGvE4A&feature=youtu.be

[Bari]

lol, at least it was honest

[HM]

 

1990, 1996 were my analogs...not for those reasons, but I suppose tangentially related.....both show how you can get a torch here with much different patterns.....I certainly view the PAC as way more important than the AtL for December...i really couldn't care less about the state of the atlantic, though maybe I should...

1990 is an interesting analog because I've been using it off and on now since the spring. It has been a very good reference overall. Our friends in Europe are interested in that because that winter saw a classic splitting vortex / SSW. We didn't see quite the same effects as they did there (ice box / blizzards in Feb). The 90-91 season of course was near Smax with extremely high solar flux/activity. It is interesting that our parameters have increased this year, but no where close to 1990.

I'm not as big on 1996-97. Remember, that winter developed some exceptionally strong MJO events with 1997-98 El Nino on the way. It was a very unusual Pacific setup, although I can see your logic in using it (especially because this year's Pacific may be weird too). What most don't remember is the exceptional cold that hit us in mid-January 97'. I would call it, "close-to-brutal," there for a week or so. I could see an outbreak or two coming this winter that resembles that stretch. There is no doubt the +QBO-coolish equatorial eastern Pacific-N. Pac warm pool system will occasionally throw us bouts of -EPO cold. Hell, we may see that very soon!

[NoVaSnow]

My Radio segment this morning

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3O94dNGvE4A&feature=youtu.be

Thanks for the link, Matt. I wanted to hear you. I'd kill myself if I had to listen to that idiot morning zoo guy every day, as WxUSAF alluded to.

[snow.]

 

1990 is an interesting analog because I've been using it off and on now since the spring. It has been a very good reference overall. Our friends in Europe are interested in that because that winter saw a classic splitting vortex / SSW. We didn't see quite the same effects as they did there (ice box / blizzards in Feb). The 90-91 season of course was near Smax with extremely high solar flux/activity. It is interesting that our parameters have increased this year, but no where close to 1990.

I'm not as big on 1996-97. Remember, that winter developed some exceptionally strong MJO events with 1997-98 El Nino on the way. It was a very unusual Pacific setup, although I can see your logic in using it (especially because this year's Pacific may be weird too). What most don't remember is the exceptional cold that hit us in mid-January 97'. I would call it, "close-to-brutal," there for a week or so. I could see an outbreak or two coming this winter that resembles that stretch. There is no doubt the +QBO-coolish equatorial eastern Pacific-N. Pac warm pool system will occasionally throw us bouts of -EPO cold. Hell, we may see that very soon!

 

 

I think we will see a cold outbreak...yes...1997 cold outbreak was brutal with very bitter wind chills...and most only remember the warmth...that 3 day stretch in mid January was the real deal...My thinking going into the winter was that that was the type of outbreaks we would have...60, 34, 28, 27, 56, 68, 73....so 3 day shots with sometimes extreme swings..with perhaps a super shot...maybe not dec 1983 style but cold...thus I went warm...I could bust in a few weeks of course..

[HM]

Excellent analysis and as always your work is amazing HM! Whats your take across the Lakes region?

 

Do you think 2008-09 would be a reasonable analog? Overall global SST configuration does look quite similar as it did back in 2008. That winter didn't feature an consistent +AO/NAO as 2007-08 did, but overall NATL SST's this year do resemble to 2008? The main difference is the La Nina in 2008 as opposed to this year, and though we have seen K/W waves of late, its likely we will end up with a warm neutral at best for this year. 

 

And BTW majority of those years in the 80's and 90's did however feature a predominant +PDO and -AMO whereas this year its quite the opposite. SST's in the Atlantic are warmer due to a quiet Atlantic hurricane season.

 

Thanks for the nice words. I think 2008-09 is so-so but it's not high on my list. That was a solid -PDO, La Niña, solar-min, +QBO winter. It was a lot more in that direction than this year is going to be, which could be good or bad for us. We'll see... 

 

While the majority of the years in the 80s-90s were +PDO, there were times when that signal was reduced or even reversed. The years that Matt and I have been talking about were those types of years, generally. But I do admit that the 1985 season's PDO, for example, is too positive and its similarities with November 2013's warm pool will probably not last. The AMO state is not as important in the winter, as it is in the summer but the tripole I suppose is a factor.

 

As you can see, sometimes years take a turn despite the long-term phases (the N PAC became a hybrid setup and the Atlantic did as well):

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/mean_anom/November.85.anomaly.gif

[snow.]

Thanks for the nice words. I think 2008-09 is so-so but it's not high on my list. That was a solid -PDO, La Niña, solar-min, +QBO winter. It was a lot more in that direction than this year is going to be, which could be good or bad for us. We'll see... 

 

While the majority of the years in the 80s-90s were +PDO, there were times when that signal was reduced or even reversed. The years that Matt and I have been talking about were those types of years, generally. But I do admit that the 1985 season's PDO, for example, is too positive and its similarities with November 2013's warm pool will probably not last. The AMO state is not as important in the winter, as it is in the summer but the tripole I suppose is a factor.

 

As you can see, sometimes years take a turn despite the long-term phases (the N PAC became a hybrid setup and the Atlantic did as well):

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/mean_anom/November.85.anomaly.gif

 

 

I punted it every time I looked at it because it was smack in the middle of a monster +PDO regime

[HM]

I think we will see a cold outbreak...yes...1997 cold outbreak was brutal with very bitter wind chills...and most only remember the warmth...that 3 day stretch in mid January was the real deal...My thinking going into the winter was that that was the type of outbreaks we would have...60, 34, 28, 27, 56, 68, 73....so 3 day shots with sometimes extreme swings..with perhaps a super shot...maybe not dec 1983 style but cold...thus I went warm...I could bust in a few weeks of course..

 

I agree with you here, definitely. There will be stronger bouts of Arctic Cold this year than the last few. I am almost tempted to say, cold outbreaks like we haven't seen in years are possible. But, they may end up brief, as you described here. This may actually be an appropriate winter to call "roller coaster-like" and not intend it as a cop-out, lol. Between the conflicted Pacific State and tendency for a more positive AO, I think the evidence is there for extreme variability. The last several winters have gotten, more-or-less, stuck in some form (whether it was a giant -AO or a giant +EPO etc) for the majority of the winter. And what I'm saying here is different than saying "pattern changes" which happen every winter. I am talking about variability where in 1 week you can see both a -NAO/+PNA and +NAO/rPNA.

[HM]

 

HM has talked about 1961 quite a bit...Among other reasons, I stayed away from the 57-70 period because it was a warm ENSO period...with all the neutrals wedged between ninos, so the nina influence/hangover wasn't apparent....my theory is that these winters had more robust and active southern streams even when the NPAC sucked....Wes has pointed out that neutrals have sucked since 81-82...I think taking on the character of ninas is part of it, but in theory.... 92-93, 93-94, 03-04....at least one of those should have crushed us...They were cold winters and they weren't bad winters, especially for the burbs..all 3 had K/U storms......but the storm track in 93-94 was to our north and west and in 03-04 either to our north or suppressed to our south...I think some of this is small sample size and noise, and that if we can get another warm ENSO period, we would clean up....But there might be something to this feast/famine and we may be in some sort of decadal phase with a bad storm track that can rarely be overcome...some is also UHI and some is DCA measurements and more borderline temp storms...It should be noted we went through famine periods from 1918-1931 and late 40s to mid 50s....so there is precedent

 

I hear what you are saying and I agree about ENSO periods. You've got to watch which neutrals you use because more often than not, they side towards a certain ENSO state. Having said that, I agree that 59-60 and 60-61 had an El Nino-like touch to them; however, 61-62 was definitely biased toward La Nina-cool PDO. I wouldn't use any year from this time verbatim, temp-wise, but it can still help you with the mean-background state.

 

HM...I think some of it is luck of course...do you remember February 2004 in the Carolinas?   They had a sick pattern with a handful of wintry mix and snow events culminating in that monster storm on 2/26-27...I'd imagine some of that is luck in terms of us missing the whole pattern...then of course earlier in the winter NYC was getting storm after storm...so it seems like we were stuck in between a lot of the time...even 12/5/03 was a bit too far west for most of us (IAD did decent despite Cantore being there)...I got 14", but I think that winter had things been just slightly different could have been a 20-25" winter...it isn't like we had a storm track to our west the whole winter...and thus really had no shot...

 

Yeah, I am thinking luck is a major factor too. I mean, how close were you guys last year? I remember it came down to some freakin' convection in VA that ruined your potential WSW-criteria snowfall. For me, I barely missed the comma head of the Feb 8-9 storm.

[HM]

I punted it every time I looked at it because it was smack in the middle of a monster +PDO regime

 

I agree. I would not use it as a winter analog. The stuff from yesterday posted was based solely on the position of the warm pool. In reality, 1990, 1961 are probably best fit.

[snow.]

I agree with you here, definitely. There will be stronger bouts of Arctic Cold this year than the last few. I am almost tempted to say, cold outbreaks like we haven't seen in years are possible. But, they may end up brief, as you described here. This may actually be an appropriate winter to call "roller coaster-like" and not intend it as a cop-out, lol. Between the conflicted Pacific State and tendency for a more positive AO, I think the evidence is there for extreme variability. The last several winters have gotten, more-or-less, stuck in some form (whether it was a giant -AO or a giant +EPO etc) for the majority of the winter. And what I'm saying here is different than saying "pattern changes" which happen every winter. I am talking about variability where in 1 week you can see both a -NAO/+PNA and +NAO/rPNA.

That was my thought and Wes's as well..volatility, perhaps extreme...more than you would see in most winters...even ninas

 

 

 

I hear what you are saying and I agree about ENSO periods. You've got to watch which neutrals you use because more often than not, they side towards a certain ENSO state. Having said that, I agree that 59-60 and 60-61 had an El Nino-like touch to them; however, 61-62 was definitely biased toward La Nina-cool PDO. I wouldn't use any year from this time verbatim, temp-wise, but it can still help you with the mean-background state.

 

 

Yeah, I am thinking luck is a major factor too. I mean, how close were you guys last year? I remember it came down to some freakin' convection in VA that ruined your potential WSW-criteria snowfall. For me, I barely missed the comma head of the Feb 8-9 storm.

 

61-62 was our least snowy of the 9 winters from 1959 through 1968...so it actually ends up not being a bad analog in terms of generating a not terribly dissimilar snow result from some of the others....it was fairly cold...with the exception of January which was right around normal or slightly above.  it could end up being an excellent analog if we get a colder winter here that tends more toward climo snow

 

We weren't that close to climo here last winter.even if other things had worked out like early March, we still would have been below...There were other winters that I think luck was a bigger factor....I think of the 92-94, 03-04 winters...where I think we could have cleaned up with a little luck...04-05 too...I think in the ninas and crappy neutrals we mostly have maximized our potential (as crappy as that potential was). 

 

I agree. I would not use it as a winter analog. The stuff from yesterday posted was based solely on the position of the warm pool. In reality, 1990, 1961 are probably best fit.

 

those 2 present 2 different results here which is what makes this winter so tough....When I picked 1990, I thought the NPAC might be very similar and that we would have a better PNA and AO/NAO pattern...so a slightly colder version of that winter...That was also a very volatile winter..especially January, thunderstorms...sub freezing days...all of the snow events that winter were hybrids that changed over to sleet/zr or rain....but the burbs didn't do too bad...This winter should be similar...so I know people are down about snow here, but we are going to have a lot of events to track...this won't be 12/2006 or 01-02. etc when we don't have to look at models for 6 weeks...The problem here is models...they will give us too much snow, but I think we all know that by now......I think the chances of a KU here are small....

[Ji]

I think most of us love tracking stuff so if we are busy looking at models... That would mostly satisfy me. 2001 was depressing because I had plenty of opportunity to drive somewhere snowy and I couldn't find anywhere to drive too...not even the lake areas

I finally ended up seeing snow that winter in March driving to Erie PA for 6 inches of lake snow but that busted too as it was suppose to be 12

[snow.]

I think most of us love tracking stuff so if we are busy looking at models... That would mostly satisfy me. 2001 was depressing because I had plenty of opportunity to drive somewhere snowy and I couldn't find anywhere to drive too...not even the lake areas

I finally ended up seeing snow that winter in March driving to Erie PA for 6 inches of lake snow but that busted too as it was suppose to be 12

 

I don't think we will see long periods with nothing to track.....I know you got 20" last winter and not sure you will top that, but I think you are good for at least 15" and perhaps 20"+.....problem is the events will be sloppy,...though you are far enough west you could get a 5-6" storm while I get 1"....This won't be December 2006 when we didn't have to look at models for 6 weeks....The NPAC will be WAY WAY Better than that winter or 2001-02, etc...we are not going to have an immovable vortex locked up over AK