2013-2014 Capital Weather Gang Winter Outlook

[snow.]

if I was a paid DCA met and wanted to be right more than wrong (the smart thing to do, of course), regardless of reasoning I'd keep going with AN temps and BN snow every winter because your chances of being right are far greater than not

even if you end up being wrong, if you poo poo the "lousy cold and snowy winter" you missed calling, the public will still love you since the vast majority hate cold and snowy

I don't know CWG's reasoning since I didn't read it (do I really need to read another AN temp, BN snowfall winter forecast for the DCA region?), but this may be the first year that they and KA are at odds so it will be interesting to see who wins...and I don''t need to tell you who I'm pulling for

this weenie's 2 cents

 

Not really true about temps...last 20 winters we have been 10 above 2 normal and 8 below....snow we know is tilted below...

 

As far as KA, I am warmer and less snow but I wouldn't say we are at odds..he didn't go cold and snowy...

[WxUSAF]

 but this may be the first year that they and KA are at odds 

 

Did KA release a forecast?  I thought he didn't...

[snow.]

Did KA release a forecast?  I thought he didn't...

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41313-ka-winter-forecast-2013-2014/?hl=%2Boutlook#entry2425452

[ORH_wxman]

Here is a post with some more detail

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41570-november-2013-obs-and-discussion/?p=2472516

 

 

I hadn't seen that specific post but I know we had discussed it in previous months...but that post is a very good description with a nice visual graphic of how the neutrals are broken down...that certainly does support your theory of the hangover effect. You could go as far as to say the weak La Ninas after El Ninos are cold and/or at least somewhat snowy...not just the neutrals. Examples would be '95-'96, '05-'06 (this one didn't work out too well despite the KU in February), '83-'84, '64-'65, '54-'55.

[snow.]

I hadn't seen that specific post but I know we had discussed it in previous months...but that post is a very good description with a nice visual graphic of how the neutrals are broken down...that certainly does support your theory of the hangover effect. You could go as far as to say the weak La Ninas after El Ninos are cold and/or at least somewhat snowy...not just the neutrals. Examples would be '95-'96, '05-'06 (this one didn't work out too well despite the KU in February), '83-'84, '64-'65, '54-'55.

 

yeah...if we ever got an extended period of warm ENSO or even a robust 1 year event, I'd go cold in the following Nina and maybe snowy if it was weak....

[snow.]

I hadn't seen that specific post but I know we had discussed it in previous months...but that post is a very good description with a nice visual graphic of how the neutrals are broken down...that certainly does support your theory of the hangover effect. You could go as far as to say the weak La Ninas after El Ninos are cold and/or at least somewhat snowy...not just the neutrals. Examples would be '95-'96, '05-'06 (this one didn't work out too well despite the KU in February), '83-'84, '64-'65, '54-'55.

 

in the bigger Nina of 10-11 after the monster nino I went 0 to +1 and 14"....we finished -1.5, 10.1"....I don't think it was an awful outlook....but not great either...my big miss was January when I went warm,...I got Dec and Feb pretty much right

[mitchnick]

Well, there's certainly been a bit of a pattern to weather conditions not conforming to expectations this year.  Whether with the very low hurricane activity or the recent chill despite the big +AO/+NAO, it certainly seems like subtler phenomenon are driving the train this year over the usual major players like ENSO.  Maybe someone like HM can articulate that better than I. I think CWG's forecast of variable conditions is probably very reasonable given this seeming lack of a big index controlling the pattern.  I think a fairly low confidence is probably also warranted.  

I'll say.....look at how many times 1995 and 1977 show up on the super computer analogs for today

those years were nothing like the other ENSO-wise but were both cold and snowy in the east

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_sup814.gif

[Ji]

I'm on the masco bandwagon

[HM]

There are a few things to watch  out for over the next few weeks:

 

1. Warm pool evolution between 30-50°N and 180-140°W in the North Pacific. Out of the 20 or so neutral years since 1950, there hasn't been many with this feature as pronounced as 2013. The best matches are 1989, 1985 and 1961. Very close, and certainly worthy of any analog set, are 2001 and 1990, which were displaced west of this year's pool (and subsequently more cooling near North America) and 1996 which was displaced east. These are the only 6! They all were significantly correlated to December's warm surface temperature anomalies in Pacific and Arctic Cold coming down into N. America. Not only that but the warm / cool areas were displaced with the warm pool (1990/2001 is shifted west). Will the warm pool this November remain as strong as it is now or will it waffle back SW?

 

2. Of the 20 neutral Decembers, only 4 had a positive AO. Of the 16 that were slightly negative to strongly negative, 7 had a positive November AO. As Matt already suggested, this wasn't the make-or-break deal in December for the Mid Atlantic. The Pacific was more important.

 

3. The MJO. Years that took on a more "El Nino-like" appearance across the CONUS generally had the MJO arrive sooner and affect more of the month. The years that had the typical RNA-La Nina style look basically had a much later arriving MJO (usually arriving late-month). There were really only 3 "blowtorch" Decembers for the CONUS (1959, 2001, 2012), all-of-which for different reasons.

 

It is quite possible December could be significantly colder than normal for much of the CONUS, should the La Nina-QBO-N PAC warm pool dominate the flow. Our area will likely modify with SE-ridge effects; but, overall, plenty of cold. This is even true should the AO remain positive.

 

If the forcing comes along and ruins this relationship, adding its El Nino-like influence, it would cause a hybrid type of circulation with many scenarios.

[snow.]

There are a few things to watch  out for over the next few weeks:

 

1. Warm pool evolution between 30-50°N and 180-140°W in the North Pacific. Out of the 20 or so neutral years since 1950, there hasn't been many with this feature as pronounced as 2013. The best matches are 1989, 1985 and 1961. Very close, and certainly worthy of any analog set, are 2001 and 1990, which were displaced west of this year's pool (and subsequent more cooling near North America) and 1996 which was displaced east. These are the only 6! They all were significantly correlated to December's warm surface temperature anomalies in Pacific and Arctic Cold coming down into N. America. Not only that but the warm / cool areas were displaced with the warm pool (1990/2001 is shifted west). Will the warm pool this November remain as strong as it is now or will it waffle back SW?

 

2. Of the 20 neutral Decembers, only 4 had a positive AO. Of the 16 that were slightly negative to negative, 7 had a positive November AO. As Matt already suggested, this wasn't the make-or-break deal in December for the Mid Atlantic. The Pacific was more important.

 

3. The MJO. Years that took on a more "El Nino-like" appearance across the CONUS generally had the MJO arrive sooner and affect more of the month. The years that had the typical RNA-La Nina style look basically had a much later arriving MJO (usually arriving late-month). There were really on 3 "blowtorch" Decembers for the CONUS (1959, 2001, 2012), all-of-which for different reasons.

 

It is quite possible December could be significantly colder than normal for much of the CONUS, should the La Nina-QBO-N PAC warm pool dominate the flow. Our area will likely modify with SE-ridge effects; but, overall, plenty of cold. This is even true should the AO remain positive.

 

If the forcing comes along and ruins this relationship, adding its El Nino-like influence, it would cause a hybrid type of circulation with many scenarios.

 

 

1990/2001 make sense with the displacement west as we are then getting the warm pool more firmly in the PDO region and warmer decembers here...not sure that will happen of course...if it evolves like the 3 best matches, then cold is a better bet since the 3 you mention were cold (1 super cold)

 

I am least confident on my warm december idea....I thought about changing it this morning to slightly above but going to stick with it...I amended last minute last year when there was some CWG internal disagreement and my original thoughts were right about a torch

[WEATHER53]

Does zwyts not post here anymore?? Anyway, do not believe it will be nearly this mild.

[ravensrule]

Does zwyts not post here anymore?? Anyway, do not believe it will be nearly this mild.

His new SN is snow.

[snow.]

Does zwyts not post here anymore?? Anyway, do not believe it will be nearly this mild.

 

 

It's me...I started a new account with a new name after a brief dust-up with the staff

[ravensrule]

1990/2001 make sense with the displacement west as we are then getting the warm pool more firmly in the PDO region and warmer decembers here...not sure that will happen of course...if it evolves like the 3 best matches, then cold is a better bet since the 3 you mention were cold (1 super cold)

 

I am least confident on my warm december idea....I thought about changing it this morning to slightly above but going to stick with it...I amended last minute last year when there was some CWG internal disagreement and my original thoughts were right about a torch

You should be getting nervous JB disagrees   :

 

He updated his December forecast for commercial clients and made it colder than he had before. He mentions that the first of the big three holidays will probably have enough cold and storminess around to cause disruptions in travel plans- he sees the cold looks taking hold, after any warm-up that goes through after the current cold shot

[aldie 22]

There are a few things to watch  out for over the next few weeks:

 

1. Warm pool evolution between 30-50°N and 180-140°W in the North Pacific. Out of the 20 or so neutral years since 1950, there hasn't been many with this feature as pronounced as 2013. The best matches are 1989, 1985 and 1961. Very close, and certainly worthy of any analog set, are 2001 and 1990, which were displaced west of this year's pool (and subsequently more cooling near North America) and 1996 which was displaced east. These are the only 6! They all were significantly correlated to December's warm surface temperature anomalies in Pacific and Arctic Cold coming down into N. America. Not only that but the warm / cool areas were displaced with the warm pool (1990/2001 is shifted west). Will the warm pool this November remain as strong as it is now or will it waffle back SW?

 

2. Of the 20 neutral Decembers, only 4 had a positive AO. Of the 16 that were slightly negative to strongly negative, 7 had a positive November AO. As Matt already suggested, this wasn't the make-or-break deal in December for the Mid Atlantic. The Pacific was more important.

 

3. The MJO. Years that took on a more "El Nino-like" appearance across the CONUS generally had the MJO arrive sooner and affect more of the month. The years that had the typical RNA-La Nina style look basically had a much later arriving MJO (usually arriving late-month). There were really only 3 "blowtorch" Decembers for the CONUS (1959, 2001, 2012), all-of-which for different reasons.

 

It is quite possible December could be significantly colder than normal for much of the CONUS, should the La Nina-QBO-N PAC warm pool dominate the flow. Our area will likely modify with SE-ridge effects; but, overall, plenty of cold. This is even true should the AO remain positive.

 

If the forcing comes along and ruins this relationship, adding its El Nino-like influence, it would cause a hybrid type of circulation with many scenarios.

Color me stupid but this post actually feels like we may have a little optimism to at least root for...thank you for the info.

[snow.]

You should be getting nervous JB disagrees   :

 

He updated his December forecast for commercial clients and made it colder than he had before. He mentions that the first of the big three holidays will probably have enough cold and storminess around to cause disruptions in travel plans- he sees the cold looks taking hold, after any warm-up that goes through after the current cold shot

 

 

I am nervous I will be wrong....It was important to me to get december right and I grappled with it....so we'll see what happens

[HM]

To illustrate my first point about the warm pool, I've attached the closest 6 analogs to it that had a neutral ENSO. The top image is the SST anomaly for November and the bottom is the surface temperature anomaly for the following December. To disregard the Pacific is definitely a mistake, as everyone in this forum knows already. It was in this area that Cohen blew his DC forecast last year, despite the correct AO call.

 

Note that 1961 was subtracted from 1950-2000. If I left the 1981-2010 climo period, the anomaly positions were pretty similar.

novsst-dectemp01.bmp

novsst-dectemp96.bmp

novsst-dectemp90.bmp

novsst-dectemp89.bmp

novsst-dectemp85.bmp

novsst-dectemp61.bmp

[snow.]

I'll be on Elliot in the Morning tomorrow on DC101 at 7am discussing the outlook if you are up

 

http://www.dc101.com/go/blogs/elliot-in-the-morning.html

[snow.]

To illustrate my first point about the warm pool, I've attached the closest 6 analogs to it that had a neutral ENSO. The top image is the SST anomaly for November and the bottom is the surface temperature anomaly for the following December. To disregard the Pacific is definitely a mistake, as everyone in this forum knows already. It was in this area that Cohen blew his DC forecast last year, despite the correct AO call.

 

Note that 1961 was subtracted from 1950-2000. If I left the 1981-2010 climo period, the anomaly positions were pretty similar.

 

Thanks for posting

[HM]

 

1990/2001 make sense with the displacement west as we are then getting the warm pool more firmly in the PDO region and warmer decembers here...not sure that will happen of course...if it evolves like the 3 best matches, then cold is a better bet since the 3 you mention were cold (1 super cold)

 

I am least confident on my warm december idea....I thought about changing it this morning to slightly above but going to stick with it...I amended last minute last year when there was some CWG internal disagreement and my original thoughts were right about a torch

It is quite possible the November warm pool for this year will migrate back west. We saw this happen in the first part of autumn (everyone got excited as the GOA warmed but then it retreated and rapidly cooled). We just got out of a very unusual El Nino-like period followed by extreme N PAC blocking. As we go back to the more typical background in the days ahead, it could very well push the warmth back SW. We'll see! Definitely not an easy forecast here. 

 

Color me stupid but this post actually feels like we may have a little optimism to at least root for...thank you for the info.

 

Yes, if you like cold and winter then these are positives. I'm interested, either way, with this December. Definitely a fascinating set of circumstances and 2013 has been quite unique!

[ravensrule]

 

It is quite possible the November warm pool for this year will migrate back west. We saw this happen in the first part of autumn (everyone got excited as the GOA warmed but then it retreated and rapidly cooled). We just got out of a very unusual El Nino-like period followed by extreme N PAC blocking. As we go back to the more typical background in the days ahead, it could very well push the warmth back SW. We'll see! Definitely not an easy forecast here. 

 

 

Yes, if you like cold and winter then these are positives. I'm interested, either way, with this December. Definitely a fascinating set of circumstances and 2013 has been quite unique!

Thanks HM for all your great info and teaching you do on this board. I for one greatly appreciate it. The good news is all of the 3,000 posts you have made have been very informative, unlike my 4,000 plus which have been the opposite .

[WEATHER53]

It's me...I started a new account with a new name after a brief dust-up with the staff

Oh, Ok. Careful about dusting with staff.

[HM]

 

Thanks for posting

 

 

Thanks HM for all your great info and teaching you do on this board. I for one greatly appreciate it. The good news is all of the 3,000 posts you have made have been very informative, unlike my 4,000 plus which have been the opposite .

You guys are welcome and thanks for the nice words.

If one were to include October, as well, this adjusts the warm pool back west. Suddenly, it is 1990 and 1961 that look the strongest. See the attachment.

 

If anyone has any other years they think match the N PAC well, post em'!!

octnovsst-dectemps6190.bmp

[usedtobe]

 

 

 

You guys are welcome and thanks for the nice words.

If one were to include October, as well, this adjusts the warm pool back west. Suddenly, it is 1990 and 1961 that look the strongest. See the attachment.

 

If anyone has any other years they think match the N PAC well, post em'!!

HM,

 

of your twenty or so neutral years,  almost all of the snowy ones were prior to 1981-1982.   Lots of the 60s once had a negative PNA but and a negative AO and then briefly popped a positive PNA in an otherwise mostly RPNA season.  Since 1981-1982, our neutral winters have been really lame as a rule and have averaged a little above normal temp wise while the early ones were just the opposite.  I haven't composited all the years separately. I'm still worried about the PDO modulating the pattern some if we can't get the AO negative. 

 

Anyway, this is a tough year to figure.  We need another 2009-2010 so we can be confident of the pattern.

[snow.]

 

 

 

You guys are welcome and thanks for the nice words.

If one were to include October, as well, this adjusts the warm pool back west. Suddenly, it is 1990 and 1961 that look the strongest. See the attachment.

 

If anyone has any other years they think match the N PAC well, post em'!!

 

 

1990, 1996 were my analogs...not for those reasons, but I suppose tangentially related.....both show how you can get a torch here with much different patterns.....I certainly view the PAC as way more important than the AtL for December...i really couldn't care less about the state of the atlantic, though maybe I should...

[Snowstorms]

 

 

 

You guys are welcome and thanks for the nice words.

If one were to include October, as well, this adjusts the warm pool back west. Suddenly, it is 1990 and 1961 that look the strongest. See the attachment.

 

If anyone has any other years they think match the N PAC well, post em'!!

 Excellent analysis and as always your work is amazing HM! Whats your take across the Lakes region?

 

Do you think 2008-09 would be a reasonable analog? Overall global SST configuration does look quite similar as it did back in 2008. That winter didn't feature an consistent +AO/NAO as 2007-08 did, but overall NATL SST's this year do resemble to 2008? The main difference is the La Nina in 2008 as opposed to this year, and though we have seen K/W waves of late, its likely we will end up with a warm neutral at best for this year. 

 

And BTW majority of those years in the 80's and 90's did however feature a predominant +PDO and -AMO whereas this year its quite the opposite. SST's in the Atlantic are warmer due to a quiet Atlantic hurricane season. 

[snow.]

HM,

 

of your twenty or so neutral years,  almost all of the snowy ones were prior to 1981-1982.   Lots of the 60s once had a negative PNA but and a negative AO and then briefly popped a positive PNA in an otherwise mostly RPNA season.  Since 1981-1982, our neutral winters have been really lame as a rule and have averaged a little above normal temp wise while the early ones were just the opposite.  I haven't composited all the years separately. I'm still worried about the PDO modulating the pattern some if we can't get the AO negative. 

 

Anyway, this is a tough year to figure.  We need another 2009-2010 so we can be confident of the pattern.

 

 

I discuss it below(not that I am right)....I do think 92-94 and 03-04 were more like those pre-82 neutrals...,  cold....and the lower than normal snow was a little bit of bad luck and statistical noise..IAD/BWI did pretty decent in those winters....I don't think it is unreasonable that if we got another neutral and it was after a nino or sandwiched between ninos that we would get normal snow or maybe a tad above...and it would probably be cold.....But as far as why none of those years were  60-61 or 66-67 or 78-79, etc....I don't know...

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41570-november-2013-obs-and-discussion/page-10#entry2472516

[WinterWxLuvr]

Thanks for the insight to everyone, Matt, HM, ORH, and others. The knowledge level on display is staggering.

One question I would have is why more of the years in the early to mid 50's and around 60-62 wouldn't be used. I looked at only the enso numbers as well as PDO and seem to remember what I thought were decent matches. Evidently you guys don't. I was wondering why, but I realize you are looking at other factors also.

Regardless, thanks for the work.

[snow.]

Thanks for the insight to everyone, Matt, HM, ORH, and others. The knowledge level on display is staggering.

One question I would have is why more of the years in the early to mid 50's and around 60-62 wouldn't be used. I looked at only the enso numbers as well as PDO and seem to remember what I thought were decent matches. Evidently you guys don't. I was wondering why, but I realize you are looking at other factors also.

Regardless, thanks for the work.

 

I stayed away from the early to mid 50s primarily because the ENSO states and progressions weren't good matches...you could make a case for 56-57 but even that  spent very little time in neutral territory...was a quick flip from nina to nino

 

HM has talked about 1961 quite a bit...Among other reasons, I stayed away from the 57-70 period because it was a warm ENSO period...with all the neutrals wedged between ninos, so the nina influence/hangover wasn't apparent....my theory is that these winters had more robust and active southern streams even when the NPAC sucked....Wes has pointed out that neutrals have sucked since 81-82...I think taking on the character of ninas is part of it, but in theory.... 92-93, 93-94, 03-04....at least one of those should have crushed us...They were cold winters and they weren't bad winters, especially for the burbs..all 3 had K/U storms......but the storm track in 93-94 was to our north and west and in 03-04 either to our north or suppressed to our south...I think some of this is small sample size and noise, and that if we can get another warm ENSO period, we would clean up....But there might be something to this feast/famine and we may be in some sort of decadal phase with a bad storm track that can rarely be overcome...some is also UHI and some is DCA measurements and more borderline temp storms...It should be noted we went through famine periods from 1918-1931 and late 40s to mid 50s....so there is precedent

[Bob Chill]

Some great points, Matt. All of the large scale oscillations and cycles have been going on for centuries but we are restricted to using less than 100 years as "analogs". If we had accurate data going back just 500 years the picture would be much more clear for not only this year but all years. This particular year has no good analogs. If anything, it's a "new" analog to be used in the future.

Then there's the back yard mentality. I'm as as guilty as any. Just because a particular year didn't produce in my yard doesn't mean the same general setup won't be productive if it reoccurs. Not talking blockbuster or anything like that. Just being good enough vs terrible. A hundred miles is a pretty short distance but that distance can make or break my or anybody's yard irt to snow, I end up thinking a particular year sucks when in reality it was good enough but the chips didn't fall.

It can snow in a bad pattern year. Just ask RIC, Orange County, and St Mary's County. We're due right? LOL