snow. Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 After getting off to a great start in December my temps busted, Jan call has been great and absent the few near 60's this woud have been a truely historic month, right now it looks to turn out well below average but not historic you're probably going to nail it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yes..very nice call by Howard so far What do you think about my 2/25 - 3/1 window? You seeing anything? I've been meaning to bump this...evidence is growing for a milder period ahead BUT...the next PNA spike may happen at the end of Feb into early march. Despite the misconceptions about the stratosphere that plague the community, it is signaling a continued weakening of the overall strong PV state, too. We are also following the 1994 playbook lately which turned cold/wintry after a warm-up Feb 15-20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 After getting off to a great start in December my temps busted, Jan call has been great and absent the few near 60's this woud have been a truely historic month, right now it looks to turn out well below average but not historic you're going to nail it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I've been meaning to bump this...evidence is growing for a milder period ahead BUT...the next PNA spike may happen at the end of Feb into early march. Despite the misconceptions about the stratosphere that plague the community, it is signaling a continued weakening of the overall strong PV state, too. We are also following the 1994 playbook lately which turned cold/wintry after a warm-up Feb 15-20. Big east coast storm early March 94. Extremely wet system with precip. in all types depending on location. Areas well north and west got crushed. There was also a sneaky wet snow event that occurred about 2 and a half weeks later. I was in Valley Forge that weekend for a pool tournament and I believe it was a Friday that snow fell. Very wet snow with temps falling to 29-30. It was a quick hitter that produced a few inches. Where I was I think it was about 3-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Excellent call by you for December, an A. Keith call of +0.5 to -0.5 I would give a C- and my call of 0 to -1 I would give an E. My previously elaborated ideas of a -3 to -5 Jan with references to "some hisotric cold is possible" appears to be getting off to a good start. A+ very nicely done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 This isn't to defend my outlook which will mostly suck, but I am preparing myself for the nonsense about this winter being cold, when it wasnt a cold winter at all...it had impressive cold shots, but it wasnt a cold winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 This isn't to defend my outlook which will mostly suck, but I am preparing myself for the nonsense about this winter being cold, when it wasnt a cold winter at all...it had impressive cold shots, but it wasnt a cold winter... It was a snowy winter though? Except for dca where you forecast for so I think your okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 It was a snowy winter though? Except for dca where you forecast for so I think your okay no..my snow and temp forecast will mostly suck...and it doesnt matter...people think 58/34 on January 15th is average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 This isn't to defend my outlook which will mostly suck, but I am preparing myself for the nonsense about this winter being cold, when it wasnt a cold winter at all...it had impressive cold shots, but it wasnt a cold winter... DCA is of course going to end up unrepresentatively warm of the entire northern VA/MD/DC area. BWI and IAD were both sub -5F for January, which is legit cold. I agree with your post in the other thread that I think Feb ends up probably a bit below normal. Probably like a -1 or -2 for DCA and -2 or -3 for IAD and BWI. But, your thoughts about people and their sliding standards is 100% correct. People have no idea what is "normal" anymore, if they ever did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 This isn't to defend my outlook which will mostly suck, but I am preparing myself for the nonsense about this winter being cold, when it wasnt a cold winter at all...it had impressive cold shots, but it wasnt a cold winter... It was near normal in DCA, with a -0.86°F total DJF departure so far. But elsewhere in the area, in places like IAD and the colder burbs where the UHI didn't get in the way of frigid lows, it's been pretty cold overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 It was near normal in DCA, with a -0.86°F total DJF departure so far. But elsewhere in the area, in places like IAD and the colder burbs where the UHI didn't get in the way of frigid lows, it's been pretty cold overall. and river Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I do not believe we will be able to call this a non cold winter. The majority of days will be below average, two out of the three months will be below average, January extremely so, and the season is going to be -1 at DCA which is not "around average" but rather below average; I would not even call it just slightly below . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 DCA is of course going to end up unrepresentatively warm of the entire northern VA/MD/DC area. BWI and IAD were both sub -5F for January, which is legit cold. I agree with your post in the other thread that I think Feb ends up probably a bit below normal. Probably like a -1 or -2 for DCA and -2 or -3 for IAD and BWI. But, your thoughts about people and their sliding standards is 100% correct. People have no idea what is "normal" anymore, if they ever did. this isn't a foregone conclusion in winter...I am pretty sure in the cold winters of 2008-09, 2009-10, 2010-11, DCA had a colder winter departure than IAD.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 this isn't a foregone conclusion in winter...I am pretty sure in the cold winters of 2008-09, 2009-10, 2010-11, DCA had a colder winter departure than IAD.. That is correct. In the (meteorological) winter of 2008-09, DCA had a negative departure of 0.9 degrees vs normal for IAD; in the winter of 2009-10, DCA had a negative departure of 2.4 vs a negative departure of 2.1 for IAD; and in the winter of 2010-11, DCA had a negative departure of 1.5 vs a negative departure of 1.2 for IAD. Those figures are relative to the 1981-2010 winter normals of 38.2 for DCA and 35.3 for IAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaSnow Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 That is correct. In the (meteorological) winter of 2008-09, DCA had a negative departure of 0.9 degrees vs normal for IAD; in the winter of 2009-10, DCA had a negative departure of 2.4 vs a negative departure of 2.1 for IAD; and in the winter of 2010-11, DCA had a negative departure of 1.5 vs a negative departure of 1.2 for IAD. Those figures are relative to the 1981-2010 winter normals of 38.2 for DCA and 35.3 for IAD. I don't know if this has been discussed anywhere, but this seemed like a good place to say it. The F6 (and the daily) for IAD for 2/13 has a low of 4! (at 4:37 pm!). We all know that is way off (probably more like 24). This is seriously skewing the monthly for IAD. I'm just hoping one of the accurate record activists will bring this to the attention of the proper authorities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I don't know if this has been discussed anywhere, but this seemed like a good place to say it. The F6 (and the daily) for IAD for 2/13 has a low of 4! (at 4:37 pm!). We all know that is way off (probably more like 24). This is seriously skewing the monthly for IAD. I'm just hoping one of the accurate record activists will bring this to the attention of the proper authorities. Good catch. I also note that the 12Z snow depth at IAD magically went from six inches on Feb. 15th to only two inches on Feb. 16th and then back up to six inches on Feb. 17, even though there was a total of only half an inch of snow that fell at IAD during that period. I'll send the Sterling weather guys an e-mail about these two issues. Last month, I noted to them an inconsistency in the January 10th precipitation figures for DCA, and that was corrected. I'll let you know what I hear back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaSnow Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Good catch. I also note that the 12Z snow depth at IAD magically went from six inches on Feb. 15th to only two inches on Feb. 16th and then back up to six inches on Feb. 17, even though there was a total of only half an inch of snow that fell at IAD during that period. I'll send the Sterling weather guys an e-mail about these two issues. Last month, I noted to them an inconsistency in the January 10th precipitation figures for DCA, and that was corrected. I'll let you know what I hear back. Thank you for your help. I also noticed the snow depth discrepancies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Good catch. I also note that the 12Z snow depth at IAD magically went from six inches on Feb. 15th to only two inches on Feb. 16th and then back up to six inches on Feb. 17, even though there was a total of only half an inch of snow that fell at IAD during that period. I'll send the Sterling weather guys an e-mail about these two issues. Last month, I noted to them an inconsistency in the January 10th precipitation figures for DCA, and that was corrected. I'll let you know what I hear back. I just heard back from Steve Zubrick of NOAA: "Here's the changes we made to Feb 13, 2014 Dulles Climate data: 1) Min temp is corrected to 20F (441 AM) from erroneous value of 4F 2) Precip changed slightly from 1.26" to 1.24" 3) The corresponding values were adjusted for the departures from normal for HDD/monthly precip/temperatures. "An corrected daily climate summary (CLIIAD) was sent at 957 AM today for the Feb 13 KIAD data, as well as a corrected preliminary F-6 form (CF6IAD) sent at 944 AM. "As you point out, these data are considered preliminary, and changes can come at anytime." While Mr. Zubrick did not say so, I note that the IAD 12Z snow depth on February 16th was also corrected -- from 2 inches to 6 inches. So, it's nice to know that NOAA was responsive to this inquiry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaSnow Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I just heard back from Steve Zubrick of NOAA: "Here's the changes we made to Feb 13, 2014 Dulles Climate data: 1) Min temp is corrected to 20F (441 AM) from erroneous value of 4F 2) Precip changed slightly from 1.26" to 1.24" 3) The corresponding values were adjusted for the departures from normal for HDD/monthly precip/temperatures. "An corrected daily climate summary (CLIIAD) was sent at 957 AM today for the Feb 13 KIAD data, as well as a corrected preliminary F-6 form (CF6IAD) sent at 944 AM. "As you point out, these data are considered preliminary, and changes can come at anytime." While Mr. Zubrick did not say so, I note that the IAD 12Z snow depth on February 16th was also corrected -- from 2 inches to 6 inches. So, it's nice to know that NOAA was responsive to this inquiry. Thank you so much for corresponding with them. All is right with the world again (for now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 enjoy! http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/11/13/winter-outlook-2013-14-for-washington-d-c-volatile-leaning-warm-with-below-normal-snow/ Summary for DCA: Overall: +3 Dec: +3 Jan: +2 Feb: +3 to +4 Snow: 6-10" Analogs (very loose): 1990-91, 1996-97 Overall: +3/ Actual: -0.8 Dec: +3/ Actual:+2.6 Jan: +2/Actual: -3.8 Feb: +3 to +4/ Actual:-1.2 Snow: 6-10"/ Actual: 20"+ Grade : Snow: D, Monthlies - D+, Overall Temp: D+ Overall Grade: D/D+ Only thing that really keeps me from F is December bullseye, and not being a super cold winter..all in all, an awful outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Overall: +3/ Actual: -0.8 Dec: +3/ Actual:+2.6 Jan: +2/Actual: -3.8 Feb: +3 to +4/ Actual:-1.2 Snow: 6-10"/ Actual: 20"+ Grade : Snow: D, Monthlies - D+, Overall Temp: D+ Overall Grade: D/D+ Only thing that really keeps me from F is December bullseye, and not being a super cold winter..all in all, an awful outlook Interesting assessment, and I agree with it. I hesitate to be overly critical of a seasonal forecast as I know how difficult it can be and how things can trend or change to screw it up. Especially a winter like this one, with no real signal to grab onto. I will say I'm glad that outlook was spectacularly wrong! That said...to be honest, I was pretty shocked they went so warm (and even so low on the snowfall) when that forecast was issued. Their temperature call was only a little cooler overall than what we had last winter, which was quite warm itself. The snow amount outlook was not all that much more than last year's abysmal total (well, double or triple the 3" DCA got). In the back of my mind, I was thinking that if any winter could actually end up "near normal" in DC, this could be one of those years. So I was more or less expecting or thinking we'd get climo for snowfall and climo or perhaps slightly warmer for temps, in the absence of other factors to push it one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 You had it going good in December but then just did not turn out. I think I did well. KA did not. For my -1.0 to 1-.5 call for the season with a -0.8 realized, that is an A. My 10-15" snow fall call will be almost on E/F but not quite. I discussed that it would not be at all like snowless last couple of winters but that I did not think it would be a big snow winter and it has been. Right now DJF are over but the snow call isn't so I am going to project a grade of D and may have to accept an E/F The monthlies were mixed result. My 0 to -1 call for December was way off with a +2.6 realized, an E. My very cold call for Jan. of -3 to -5 was bold and bullseyed at -3.8, A+. February I had at 0 to +2 and was well off a -1.2, a D. I did correctly predict that 2 out of the 3 months would be below average, did have a 0 value in the Dec and Feb call and my cold call of 0 to -1 was close at -1.2 even if the wrong month and my mild call of 0 to +2 was not far off at +2.6. I am going with a C/C-. Overall, I think it was a good winter seasonal long range outlook; B/B-. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 You had it going good in December but then just did not turn out. I think I did well. KA did not. For my -1.0 to 1-.5 call for the season with a -0.8 realized, that is an A. My 10-15" snow fall call will be almost on E/F but not quite. I discussed that it would not be at all like snowless last couple of winters but that I did not think it would be a big snow winter and it has been. Right now DJF are over but the snow call isn't so I am going to project a grade of D and may have to accept an E/F The monthlies were mixed result. My 0 to -1 call for December was way off with a +2.6 realized, an E. My very cold call for Jan. of -3 to -5 was bold and bullseyed at -3.8, A+. February I had at 0 to +2 and was well off a -1.2, a D. I did correctly predict that 2 out of the 3 months would be below average, did have a 0 value in the Dec and Feb call and my cold call of 0 to -1 was close at -1.2 even if the wrong month and my mild call of 0 to +2 was not far off at +2.6. I am going with a C/C-. Overall, I think it was a good winter seasonal long range outlook; B/B-. I think you did a very good job...10-15" is not a low snow call either...with DCA median 10-12", that is like an average, slightly above winter...I'd give your snow a C, maybe lower if DC cleans up Monday.....Howard...we are experiencing a 1960's style winter...Never thought I would see one again...figured it was big boom or bust...If we can put a string of these together like you and KA think, we are in for a treat..next winter already looks good to me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 I'll probably bust again next winter...I can't shake the feeling it is going to be warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/04/21/grading-our-2013-14-winter-outlook/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 I give them a solid C. I give Ian a C- for climatology hugging... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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