snow. Posted December 23, 2013 Author Share Posted December 23, 2013 so far in Dc 12 days of below normal 10 days of above normal(today will make it 11). The warm days are outdoing the cold days but it took historic warmth It has taken a huge torch to get to +3, but in terms of outdoing the cold days, it hasn't taken much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 It has taken a huge torch to get to +3, but in terms of outdoing the cold days, it hasn't taken much...Our biggest I like a minus 10 this mo isn't it? That's baby cold. Pretty much the main part of the cold spell this mo underperformed outside the time around the winter storm duo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 so far in Dc 12 days of below normal 10 days of above normal(today will make it 11). The warm days are outdoing the cold days but it took historic warmth Yep 3 (-3's) are hard to overcome a +27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 23, 2013 Author Share Posted December 23, 2013 Our biggest I like a minus 10 this mo isn't it? That's baby cold. Pretty much the main part of the cold spell this mo underperformed outside the time around the winter storm duo. We had that nice cold/snowy stretch...a 6 day stretch from 12/8-13 averaging -7...otherwise the month has been climo or warm.,... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 We get historic warmth at least a few times a year these days. Even in our cold summer that July stretch broke some records for longevity. There's something to be said about that. Even on a subseasonal scale, the "teleconnections" did indicate that this potential for historic warmth was equally likely. If you have an exceptionally high AO, just a small 2-day or so adjustment in the Pacific can deliver a furnace. So, as it turns out, the AO did in fact matter for the SE / Mid Atlantic, like it does every freakin winter. Moving ahead, the transpolar ridge will briefly take the AO down and deliver cold along with the PNA ridge. But, I don't think this is necessarily the polar shift that our region is looking for yet...but hey...it's better than where we were in 2011 etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 The euro has the low to mid 50s for a max Sunday. We may end the week pretty normal if that is so and then Matt's December call would be stellar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 24, 2013 Author Share Posted December 24, 2013 enjoy! http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/11/13/winter-outlook-2013-14-for-washington-d-c-volatile-leaning-warm-with-below-normal-snow/ Summary for DCA: Overall: +3 Dec: +3 Jan: +2 Feb: +3 to +4 Snow: 6-10" Analogs (very loose): 1990-91, 1996-97 Yes. Though I have kind of punted 96-97 for now. I still like 1990. I've been looking at others. I like 46-47 a bit lately. I liked it last year too. I don't think we will have that epic February but I think it may be a good 1st half of winter Analog. Because I dismissed 96-97(for now). I forgot about the 1/9 event. Thanks for reminding me. I even like that period better now. So storm on 1/7-1/8. Book it 1990 ended up being my primary analog...I know HM had been all over it for months..I started liking it early fall.... You can see it ended up being a pretty good DEC analog...we still have a week left so will have to bump...but I like the overall result Dec 1990 Dec 1-22, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Maybe my -3 to -5 Jan. starts off good? Even when I shave off 40% on the 850's it's Still cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 25, 2013 Author Share Posted December 25, 2013 Maybe my -3 to -5 Jan. starts off good? Even when I shave off 40% on the 850's it's Still cold. yes...I think there will be some cold days in there...perhaps very cold.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 enjoy! http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/11/13/winter-outlook-2013-14-for-washington-d-c-volatile-leaning-warm-with-below-normal-snow/ Summary for DCA: Overall: +3 Dec: +3 Jan: +2 Feb: +3 to +4 Snow: 6-10" Analogs (very loose): 1990-91, 1996-97 finished +2.6...16 warm days, 15 cold days....Hopefully I bust in January and February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 finished +2.6...16 warm days, 15 cold days....Hopefully I bust in January and February only +2 this mo.. that's pretty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 finished +2.6...16 warm days, 15 cold days....Hopefully I bust in January and February Excellent call by you for December, an A. Keith call of +0.5 to -0.5 I would give a C- and my call of 0 to -1 I would give an E. My previously elaborated ideas of a -3 to -5 Jan with references to "some hisotric cold is possible" appears to be getting off to a good start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Excellent call by you for December, an A. Keith call of +0.5 to -0.5 I would give a C- and my call of 0 to -1 I would give an E. My previously elaborated ideas of a -3 to -5 Jan with references to "some hisotric cold is possible" appears to be getting off to a good start. It does......I hope you're right...I still like my call of +2 but it is a long month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Talking full CONUS here, the strongest neutral ENSO analogs discussed in this thread did a pretty good job for December 2013 (1961, 1990). Even 1996 was pretty good at depicting the center of coldest anomalies, despite it being a warmer version of what transpired for 2013. Interestingly, it was 1978 that might have done the best country-wide for temps, and it even had the Northeast gradient nailed. The problem is: the 1978 map was highly influenced by the -NAO that developed that December. I would imagine if we venture into some weak ENSO years, we would fine more matches (2008 was a good call by some of you for general depiction). But, I wanted to stay in the neutral realm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 HM...Right now, I see 2 possible windows for decent snow events for DC and immediate burbs - decent meaning, most everyone gets at least 2" with potentially greater amounts, esp localized in the typical NW areas as usual..These events could be bigger for DC metro, but I can't imagine either being more than 3-6" for immedate DC metro and I'd lean more toward the 1-3"/2-4" storm for the cities....this doesn't mean all snow events, but I think these 2 windows have the best potential for producing our 2 biggest events until February..I am not going to take a guess for Feb or March just yet.... 12/27 - 1/2 (If I had to narrow - 12/28 - 1/1) 1/5 - 1/10 (If I had to narrow - 1/6 - 1/8) I think from now through Christmas and then Jan 10 - 31st, any wintry events for city and immediate burbs are of the smaller, mangled imperfect mixy variety....dustings to 1", always potentially more for further burbs Caveat: HM and I do this for fun. It isn't just a WAG for me...I spend time analyzing....But the skill level for me is very low...so more than a random guess, but mostly for fun...HM has more skill and experience, but these windows are hard to call from far out... I did pretty good with my storm window...caught the tail end of 12/27-1/2 The next big signal showing up is roughly 2/25 - 3/1...doesn't mean it won't snow before then...but I am not getting a strong signal as of yet. I still like my idea of 1/10 through end of the month being not so great for snow...probably a couple minor mangled mixy events T-1"...always chances better for the snow outer burbs...but above normal temps in the means... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 next year could really be the year... excited about NINO possibilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 *edited to add "early to mid-month" for when forcing shifts from WH to EH again in Feb So the autumn-winter progression has been interesting so far: October: RNA November: PNA December: Classic "cold" La Niña look January: Looking like November so far. Another El Niño-like touch coming up to the pattern with classic Aleutian Low / split flow. Looks like a rather warm N-C USA period is on the way but we'll "benefit" from troughing. Definitely lots of variability. Naturally, different times of the year will have different patterns if the forcings in Oct-Nov remain the same come Dec-Jan. The autumn was characterized by a negative NPO. This has ended as a full-scale regime shift is underway in global wind and momentum. Also, notice that at times of tropical pac upwelling, the -vp anomalies are over the C PAC: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/vpot_tlon.shtml http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-10/wkd20eq2_anm.gif And during active downwelling kelvin waves/warming, the forcing is more restricted into the IO. This may seem counterintuitive but the air forces the changes in the ocean with considerable lag (this back-and-forth makes sense). So presumably, another downwelling KW is on the way for Feb across the C and E PAC. The tropical forcing will begin to shift back into the eastern hemisphere, then, as well, probably early to mid-month or so. But the later we get in winter, the cooler this signal becomes (8-1-2-3 transition is cold): http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/JFM/combined_image.png So, which way will February go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Excellent call by you for December, an A. Keith call of +0.5 to -0.5 I would give a C- and my call of 0 to -1 I would give an E. My previously elaborated ideas of a -3 to -5 Jan with references to "some hisotric cold is possible" appears to be getting off to a good start. Your Jan call is looking the best so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 Your Jan call is looking the best so far. Yes..very nice call by Howard so far What do you think about my 2/25 - 3/1 window? You seeing anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Yes..very nice call by Howard so far What do you think about my 2/25 - 3/1 window? You seeing anything? Nothing clear to me then. I'll let you know if I stumble across something. But what do you think about Jan 28-30 for widespread eastern us event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 14, 2014 Author Share Posted January 14, 2014 Nothing clear to me then. I'll let you know if I stumble across something. But what do you think about Jan 28-30 for widespread eastern us event? It is looking that way...looks more hybrid/miller B to me...but even DC can do well in that pattern... Do you expect a split flow/southern stream?...Will we have to deal with a weak low in the lakes even if something comes from the south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 It is looking that way...looks more hybrid/miller B to me...but even DC can do well in that pattern... Do you expect a split flow/southern stream?...Will we have to deal with a weak low in the lakes even if something comes from the south? The period coming-up before the end of the month I thought got a little too much hype. I'm not saying one of the next few events can't amplify enough to get coastal areas; but, I'm looking for the next widespread event. The last time I used these methods, all the cold air went bye-bye; but, we had a ton of moisture. This go-around, I am not worried about cold. I do believe both retrogression and a southern stream will become more of a player in about 8-12 days. Both leave room for an actual widespread storm loaded with precip. The key to a winter storm working out is the prior air mass being favorable but also what happens in the strat. If certain things can occur, it is possible the ridge over western North America can break off into the NAO-west regions. Should this occur, Ji will be a happy man. In a year like this one, you can't predict storms too far ahead since we don't have a strong global constant. And by that, I mean a strong MJO presence, El Nino, blocking...something... instead we have several moderate signals that may or may not jive at some time to bring snow. So, unlike last year, I can't say anything more about 1/28-30 other than I hope it works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 14, 2014 Author Share Posted January 14, 2014 The period coming-up before the end of the month I thought got a little too much hype. I'm not saying one of the next few events can't amplify enough to get coastal areas; but, I'm looking for the next widespread event. The last time I used these methods, all the cold air went bye-bye; but, we had a ton of moisture. This go-around, I am not worried about cold. I do believe both retrogression and a southern stream will become more of a player in about 8-12 days. Both leave room for an actual widespread storm loaded with precip. The key to a winter storm working out is the prior air mass being favorable but also what happens in the strat. If certain things can occur, it is possible the ridge over western North America can break off into the NAO-west regions. Should this occur, Ji will be a happy man. In a year like this one, you can't predict storms too far ahead since we don't have a strong global constant. And by that, I mean a strong MJO presence, El Nino, blocking...something... instead we have several moderate signals that may or may not jive at some time to bring snow. So, unlike last year, I can't say anything more about 1/28-30 other than I hope it works out. Thanks...I mentioned in the other thread I am not too jazzed before 1/26 or so....hopefully we get that right hand turn by the PNA ridge..looking foward to the end of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Thanks...I mentioned in the other thread I am not too jazzed before 1/26 or so....hopefully we get that right hand turn by the PNA ridge..looking foward to the end of the month The end of the month is a type of "stretching." These are times I like for when predicting storms. Before, I referred to it as a time when a progressive anomaly pattern switches to retrogressive. So if the eastern Canada PV moves east as the PNA ridge moves west, it expands the Arctic medium and gives room for s/w to amplify. You also increase potential for wave development and breaking as background flow weakens toward wave speed (a recipe for wave breaking). If you do this in a very cold air mass, you get things like 2/8-2/9 2013 (don't focus on snow as much as upper-level phasing). So between 1/24 and 1/29, we see the retrograding signal there and we see the stratospheric high try to push the polar vortex as far East as it can into the North Atlantic. The further it can push it, the better the chance for a PNA ridge "break off" into the west NAO regions. This would also help get the PV to position more correctly. I wish this signal wasn't happening at this point in the calendar (end of Jan / start of Feb), since all the preseason hype was there already. I hate having to give a "heads-up" into a period that the "usual suspects" have been salivating over ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 14, 2014 Author Share Posted January 14, 2014 The end of the month is a type of "stretching." These are times I like for when predicting storms. Before, I referred to it as a time when a progressive anomaly pattern switches to retrogressive. So if the eastern Canada PV moves east as the PNA ridge moves west, it expands the Arctic medium and gives room for s/w to amplify. You also increase potential for wave development and breaking as background flow weakens toward wave speed (a recipe for wave breaking). If you do this in a very cold air mass, you get things like 2/8-2/9 2013 (don't focus on snow as much as upper-level phasing). So between 1/24 and 1/29, we see the retrograding signal there and we see the stratospheric high try to push the polar vortex as far East as it can into the North Atlantic. The further it can push it, the better the chance for a PNA ridge "break off" into the west NAO regions. This would also help get the PV to position more correctly. I wish this signal wasn't happening at this point in the calendar (end of Jan / start of Feb), since all the preseason hype was there already. I hate having to give a "heads-up" into a period that the "usual suspects" have been salivating over ... It is the start of the heart of climo for much of the coastal plain...people are always going to focus on 1/25 - 2/10 preseason...nothing you can do about it..It's like saying in March that I am really seeing a nice window for a heat wave from around July 20th to August 5th...we know you have the reasoning...ignore the pretenders Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 It is the start of the heart of climo for much of the coastal plain...people are always going to focus on 1/25 - 2/10 preseason...nothing you can do about it..It's like saying in March that I am really seeing a nice window for a heat wave from around July 20th to August 5th...we know you have the reasoning...ignore the pretenders You're right, f em. Some winters at this time we are staring at a SE ridge with La Nina in full force for foreseeable future....And the frauds are still calling for the same things as this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 +0.2 for the month! thats going to be erased pretty quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I guess you could still end up OK on avg temps for the whole winter but at this point it's hard to think of this as a warm winter that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I guess you could still end up OK on avg temps for the whole winter but at this point it's hard to think of this as a warm winter that's for sure. i dont worry about how winter feels....I only care about the numbers..though I was bullish on arctic air intrusions..that said I butchered January...February is up in the air... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 After getting off to a great start in December my temps busted, Jan call has been great and absent the few near 60's this woud have been a truely historic month, right now it looks to turn out well below average but not historic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.