snow. Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 enjoy! http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/11/13/winter-outlook-2013-14-for-washington-d-c-volatile-leaning-warm-with-below-normal-snow/ Summary for DCA: Overall: +3 Dec: +3 Jan: +2 Feb: +3 to +4 Snow: 6-10" Analogs (very loose): 1990-91, 1996-97 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 enjoy! http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/11/13/winter-outlook-2013-14-for-washington-d-c-volatile-leaning-warm-with-below-normal-snow/ Summary for DCA: Overall: +3 Dec: +3 Jan: +2 Feb" +3 to +4 Snow: 6-10" Analogs (very loose): 1990-91, 1996-97 Gawd, that's a miserable forecast. Get me out of here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Nicely written, Matt, Jason, Wes and Co. I hope you guys do far worse than you did with your summer outlook! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 good luck with the forecast even though we want it to be wrong...1996 looks like a better analog due to the colder November...I think DCA gets more snow than your forecast but that's just my guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Great write up but your popularity poll with me declined several notches. Still in the green though. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Nice work. Rooting against you all (even though I think you are going to be right), but nice work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 I'm a little skeptical of thinking the Nina influence is still there even after last winter was neutral... is there a decent sample size of neutral after neutral after Ninas? of course, you know way more than me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 At work and can only steal a quick glance, but one question would be why 90-91 was used as an analog. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 I'm a little skeptical of thinking the Nina influence is still there even after last winter was neutral... is there a decent sample size of neutral after neutral after Ninas? of course, you know way more than me.I'll let Matt answer definitively but from our discussions over the last year or so it's a default type of circulation. We haven't had any real warm shakeup since the multi-year nina so the odds of a more nina'ish type of circulation are pretty high. There's a "chance" that last year's modest warmth could have "some" impact but the safer bet is another year with cold enso type influence.It's the unwanted guest that never wants to leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 i hope you guys bust horribly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 I see no way it being that warm. Hoping for miserable bust. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 I see no way it being that warm. Hoping for miserable bust. lol Get a dominant -pna without blocking or very well placed -epo and it's easily that warm. My biggest fear entering December is having the pv or canadian vortex setting up too far west and watching the se ridge flex. I agree with higher odds of short term variability vs long term dominant regimes but even with variability warm or cold will win unless it's a perfect balance which is unlikely. I'm banking on having cold in the east winning out more often during Dec but I'm the board optimist so disclaimers aplenty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Get a dominant -pna without blocking or very well placed -epo and it's easily that warm. My biggest fear entering December is having the pv or canadian vortex setting up too far west and watching the se ridge flex. I agree with higher odds of short term variability vs long term dominant regimes but even with variability warm or cold will win unless it's a perfect balance which is unlikely. I'm banking on having cold in the east winning out more often during Dec but I'm the board optimist so disclaimers aplenty. I don't see anything that suggest that at this time. December looks pretty cold to me. Guess we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Well, that'll suck all the life out of this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 I'm shocked people are shocked.. Writing has been on the wall for a while, and while we see several paths to this being"incorrect" -- to me, it's the right and very good call. As a snow lover, I'd love to see it bust but we know we won't get that lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 13, 2013 Author Share Posted November 13, 2013 I'm a little skeptical of thinking the Nina influence is still there even after last winter was neutral... is there a decent sample size of neutral after neutral after Ninas? of course, you know way more than me. I wouldn't say the sample size is decent...though uniformly the neutrals that were cold and/or snowy were wedged in a warm ENSO regime between ninos....every single one....I should probably post my stuff from the regular november thread into this one However, because last winter was neutral and even had that fake-out "nino" in the fall, this winter is lower confidence than usual....plus the smaller sample size Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 We've still got like 3 winters to go till the next big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 13, 2013 Author Share Posted November 13, 2013 I don't see anything that suggest that at this time. December looks pretty cold to me. Guess we shall see. there is a signal there, but I don't know that we can trust it given the pattern variability of a month now.....as HM and I have mentioned, you need the aleutian ridge to go poleward and also east (over the core of the EPO region) and west over Siberis helps too...the other factors look either neutral or adverse...even when ideal., this configuration puts the cold anomalies to our northwest and we have to hope the air masses can get here...one thing HM suggested is possibly getting a Nino pattern in Dec...that is another way to get cold...core neg anomalies to our south and southwest with an aleutian low and a +PNA....so there are ways to get cold....since the 1989 insane DEC we have only gone cold 7 out of 23 times...it is hard to do....and the neutrals with residual nina filth were all torchy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 13, 2013 Author Share Posted November 13, 2013 We've still got like 3 winters to go till the next big one. without popping a moderate nino...probably...a weak nino next winter would probably be ok...like 10-14" type of winter...maybe this winter will be awesome...i doubt it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 there is a signal there, but I don't know that we can trust it given the pattern variability of a month now.....as HM and I have mentioned, you need the aleutian ridge to go poleward and also east (over the core of the EPO region) and west over Siberis helps too...the other factors look either neutral or adverse...even when ideal., this configuration puts the cold anomalies to our northwest and we have to hope the air masses can get here...one thing HM suggested is possibly getting a Nino pattern in Dec...that is another way to get cold...core neg anomalies to our south and southwest with an aleutian low and a +PNA....so there are ways to get cold....since the 1989 insane DEC we have only gone cold 7 out of 23 times...it is hard to do....and the neutrals with residual nina filth were all torchy Stupid La nina. Global warming, come on warmer ocean water!! lol. Winter outlooks are so hard and often completely wrong. Most were calling for an active hurricane season. We seen how that worked out. Hopefully things go in our favor this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 13, 2013 Author Share Posted November 13, 2013 Stupid La nina. Global warming, come on warmer ocean water!! lol. Winter outlooks are so hard and often completely wrong. Most were calling for an active hurricane season. We seen how that worked out. Hopefully things go in our favor this year. You're absolutely right...however, your disagreement would be more compelling if its entire basis wasn't "seasonal outlooks can be wrong" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 13, 2013 Author Share Posted November 13, 2013 I'm a little skeptical of thinking the Nina influence is still there even after last winter was neutral... is there a decent sample size of neutral after neutral after Ninas? of course, you know way more than me. I wouldn't say the sample size is decent...though uniformly the neutrals that were cold and/or snowy were wedged in a warm ENSO regime between ninos....every single one....I should probably post my stuff from the regular november thread into this one However, because last winter was neutral and even had that fake-out "nino" in the fall, this winter is lower confidence than usual....plus the smaller sample size Here is a post with some more detail http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41570-november-2013-obs-and-discussion/?p=2472516 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 I'm shocked people are shocked.. Writing has been on the wall for a while, and while we see several paths to this being"incorrect" -- to me, it's the right and very good call. As a snow lover, I'd love to see it bust but we know we won't get that lucky. Definitive statements about weather 3+ months in advance. I'm shocked anyone would even attempt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 You're absolutely right...however, your disagreement would be more compelling if its entire basis wasn't "seasonal outlooks can be wrong" Everyone is predicting different things, someones going to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 enjoy! http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/11/13/winter-outlook-2013-14-for-washington-d-c-volatile-leaning-warm-with-below-normal-snow/ Summary for DCA: Overall: +3 Dec: +3 Jan: +2 Feb" +3 to +4 Snow: 6-10" Analogs (very loose): 1990-91, 1996-97 Very little to enjoy, but a nice discussion. Unfortunately, my guess is that the CWG forecast is more likely to be closer to what happens than some of the colder, snowier ones that have come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 13, 2013 Author Share Posted November 13, 2013 Everyone is predicting different things, someones going to be wrong. I am much less confident than I was about december last winter when a lot saw cold and we torched... We were +3.2 last winter with a much more robust -NAO signal...I didn't really see any compelling reason to go colder than last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 13, 2013 Author Share Posted November 13, 2013 Very little to enjoy, but a nice discussion. Unfortunately, my guess is that the CWG is more likely to be closer to what happens than some of the colder, snowier ones that have come out. Thanks Don...I know you aren't very hopeful of a -AO/-NAO regime this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Stupid La nina. Global warming, come on warmer ocean water!! lol. Winter outlooks are so hard and often completely wrong. Most were calling for an active hurricane season. We seen how that worked out. Hopefully things go in our favor this year. You're absolutely right...however, your disagreement would be more compelling if its entire basis wasn't "seasonal outlooks can be wrong" Well, there's certainly been a bit of a pattern to weather conditions not conforming to expectations this year. Whether with the very low hurricane activity or the recent chill despite the big +AO/+NAO, it certainly seems like subtler phenomenon are driving the train this year over the usual major players like ENSO. Maybe someone like HM can articulate that better than I. I think CWG's forecast of variable conditions is probably very reasonable given this seeming lack of a big index controlling the pattern. I think a fairly low confidence is probably also warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 if I was a paid DCA met and wanted to be right more than wrong (the smart thing to do, of course), regardless of reasoning I'd keep going with AN temps and BN snow every winter because your chances of being right are far greater than not even if you end up being wrong, if you poo poo the "lousy cold and snowy winter" you missed calling, the public will still love you since the vast majority hate cold and snowy I don't know CWG's reasoning since I didn't read it (do I really need to read another AN temp, BN snowfall winter forecast for the DCA region?), but this may be the first year that they and KA are at odds so it will be interesting to see who wins...and I don''t need to tell you who I'm pulling for this weenie's 2 cents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 13, 2013 Author Share Posted November 13, 2013 Well, there's certainly been a bit of a pattern to weather conditions not conforming to expectations this year. Whether with the very low hurricane activity or the recent chill despite the big +AO/+NAO, it certainly seems like subtler phenomenon are driving the train this year over the usual major players like ENSO. Maybe someone like HM can articulate that better than I. I think CWG's forecast of variable conditions is probably very reasonable given this seeming lack of a big index controlling the pattern. I think a fairly low confidence is probably also warranted. he has talked about it a bit in the winter thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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