Chicago Storm Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Let's also note the GFS now has 70˚F temperatures to Chicago on Sunday afternoon. I was just about to mention that. Record for the date is 74 (1975). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Every little bit matters in a big way for the LOT area. Which is why I've been riding the frontal placement issues. Either could mean initiation over the metro, or just west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Which is why I've been riding the frontal placement issues. Either could mean initiation over the metro, or just west. Definitely. Was just taking a closer look at the 4km NAM. Looks like it's kicking off initiation right at noon from Dekalb down towards Peoria. That would give the storms a full 1-2hrs to mature before impacting Chicago if that scenario pans out. Definitely an interesting/somewhat scary situation for Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Impressive dewpoint map^. NAM HIRES fires off that line pretty quickly. 12pm 3pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 ^ The above map depicting a solid squall line is definitely misleading. No way will we be seeing a solid line like that with so much shear in place. I'm not seeing a big dump of cold air immediately following the front either, so undercutting of cold air doesn't seem to factor in. Forcing is very strong of course, which may try to create more of a line eventually, but even then with so much shear in place the line will be full of "kinks" capable of producing tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 I think this post is worth it for at least nothing more than posterity: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigBluesfan Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 So based on that top map St. Louis is in tornado 5 zone! Cool! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Just doing a quick comparison between the 00z GFS and 00Z NAM, and even comparing to the 18Z runs, and not only am I thinking like several people in here that d1 severe may have to go slight risk in an area inside a line containing CID/ISW/GRB/ORD/SPI/STL, but d2 may have to go from ISW to GRB, APN, CYVV, CYOW, ART, ELM, UNV, JST, HTS, JKL, BNA, MEM, ARG, RFD for the slight risk, and moderate risk (wind gusts) for an area contained by a line from EVV, IND, FWA, TOL, DTW, BAX, MBS, RQB, ETB, SPI, MWA. that's just my guess, I'm sure others here have differing opinions, and please feel free to make changes. but if you don't want to go moderate risk for day 2, i could also see a 30% wind prob in place of the mod risk for day 2. thoughts, with SPC coming out in ~ 2 hours with the new d1? that's from my post in the great lakes/ohio valley forum. any thoughts on the risk areas as I see them, as I delineated them (d1 being the 16th, d2 being the 17th)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 So based on that top map St. Louis is in tornado 5 zone! Cool!STP has advantages and disadvantages. I was in a mesoanalysis max of 5 STP in IA on October 4th and it stayed partly sunny. I think the greatest tornado threat here is further NE across IN and E IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 STP has advantages and disadvantages. I was in a mesoanalysis max of 5 STP in IA on October 4th and it stayed partly sunny. I think the greatest tornado threat here is further NE across IN and E IL. Yet it also had a relative maxima in the area that got hit by 2 EF4s... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 STP has advantages and disadvantages. I was in a mesoanalysis max of 5 STP in IA on October 4th and it stayed partly sunny. I think the greatest tornado threat here is further NE across IN and E IL. And up into southern MI.. Incredible set up to say the least.. Not much else to add as it has all been covered well by many here already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Could be a blanket tornado warning kind of evening here Sunday. A line capable of damaging winds but also several tornados that spin up along it. I wonder if anything can fire in front of the main line? Regardless, severe winds are a given considering the amount of wind aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 It will be key to refer to mesoanalyses helicity in terms of "now-casting". Here we're talking about a very broad area with tornado potential. In retrospect, 10/4 was a restively localized (yet powerful) tornado episode near the triple point. While there was an elongated area of high STP's, the greatest helicity was up near Wayne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Totally different setup, but since I started working at LOT in July 2010, this is the most legit looking widespread potential for the CWA since 4/10/11. Very concerned for this area because people here already are not prepared for tornadoes, then add to the mix that it's November. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 First look at the WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW: NMM: ARW: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Looks very cellular over IL and IN then congeals into more of a squall line. Not good I'd imagine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 I'd say, if that were to be right, areas from I57 in Illinois and East into Central Indiana are going to be in big trouble from 15-21z on Sunday! Yikes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 New Day 1 expands slight risk farther in to IA/IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 One more thing to add into the mix: given the time of year (fall, where water temps are relatively warm relative to land temps), and given the strong dynamics of this system, the effect of the lake breeze will not be as much as a factor. So that's not going to protect Chicago, if something were to go its way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 ^ The above map depicting a solid squall line is definitely misleading. No way will we be seeing a solid line like that with so much shear in place. I'm not seeing a big dump of cold air immediately following the front either, so undercutting of cold air doesn't seem to factor in. Forcing is very strong of course, which may try to create more of a line eventually, but even then with so much shear in place the line will be full of "kinks" capable of producing tornadoes. So will we probably see scattered cellular activity along the cold front then (a.k.a. hit and miss type)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2013 Author Share Posted November 16, 2013 Totally different setup, but since I started working at LOT in July 2010, this is the most legit looking widespread potential for the CWA since 4/10/11. Very concerned for this area because people here already are not prepared for tornadoes, then add to the mix that it's November. Sent from my SCH-I535 Someone mentioned that exact event to me earlier today. As you know, the main focus with that one ended up being farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 i'm kinda surprised a bit the slight risk didn't extend a bit further northwards in Wisconsin than the southwest corner. but maybe I was thinking a bit too much about storm propagation from SW to NE into there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2013 Author Share Posted November 16, 2013 One more thing to add into the mix: given the time of year (fall, where water temps are relatively warm relative to land temps), and given the strong dynamics of this system, the effect of the lake breeze will not be as much as a factor. So that's not going to protect Chicago, if something were to go its way. It's going to be zero factor with these kinds of low level winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Totally different setup, but since I started working at LOT in July 2010, this is the most legit looking widespread potential for the CWA since 4/10/11. Very concerned for this area because people here already are not prepared for tornadoes, then add to the mix that it's November. Sent from my SCH-I535 Someone mentioned that exact event to me earlier today. As you know, the main focus with that one ended up being farther north. Yup, and that's highly unlikely to happen this time. The 12z SPC WRF from the day before had a string of supercells moving through the Chicago area. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 The Day 2 sure is taking a long time. Must be some good deliberation going on in Norman tonight. Really though I don't see how they keep it at SLGT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 The Day 2 sure is taking a long time. Must be some good deliberation going on in Norman tonight. Really though I don't see how they keep it at SLGT. Still another 40 min to the D2, the D1 comes out faster than the D2 in standard time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 The Day 2 sure is taking a long time. Must be some good deliberation going on in Norman tonight. Really though I don't see how they keep it at SLGT. Its not out till 2am... the SPC day 2 page says by 0700 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 The Day 2 sure is taking a long time. Must be some good deliberation going on in Norman tonight. Really though I don't see how they keep it at SLGT. It comes out at 0700 UTC during standard time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 probably whether they not only take it to moderate risk, but how far to extend it into Ohio and Michigan. also on the slight risk, how far do you take it into PA and upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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