Chicago Storm Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Wouldn't be surprised if the upcoming day 1 is expanded to include more of IL/MO/WI to account for the threat tomorrow afternoon and night. Nice 50-6KT+ LLJ in place during that time, along with a decent lead wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2013 Author Share Posted November 16, 2013 Can one post weatherbell images here, or is that no go? Yeah but use a free site when posting Euro stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 00z 4k NAM 18z CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2013 Author Share Posted November 16, 2013 Uh oh...0z NAM coming in with even more instability by 15z Sunday morning, SBCAPE/MLCAPE values of 1500 j/kg now, only making STP go up even higher with southerly sfc winds. namCGP_con_stp_039.gif That is ridiculous for 9 AM in November. I think the NAM has been most bullish with morning destabilization but even toning it down a bit would still be enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 00z 4k NAM 18z CAPE. wow that is def slower. Uh oh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 500 mb temperatures from the 00z NAM valid 39 and 42 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 wow that is def slower. Uh oh. Squall line reaches ORD by 19-20z, but it's out in front of that line where some discrete cells will certainly be possible a few hours earlier. The action really starts first thing Sunday across IL and progresses into IN and OH during the second half of the day. At least based off of the guidance we're seeing here. Any additional heating and CAPE help will only had fuel to the fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 00z 4k NAM 18z CAPE. wow that is def slower. Uh oh. Victor Gensini gave a somewhat unrelated talk about using PV for the placement of large scale features the LOT winter wx workshop and basically predicted that the trend with this system would be stronger/slower. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 That is ridiculous for 9 AM in November. I think the NAM has been most bullish with morning destabilization but even toning it down a bit would still be enough. The question is will initiation occur early enough to tap that around here. Going to be close. I'm thinking a 17-18z main initiation time, which might mean development over the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LouWX Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Victor Gensini gave a somewhat unrelated talk about using PV for the placement of large scale features the LOT winter wx workshop and basically predicted that the trend with this system would be stronger/slower.Sent from my SCH-I535 Is that talk or info available online? Sounds like an interesting read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 The question is will initiation occur early enough to tap that area here. Going to be close. I'm thinking a 17-18z main initiation time, which might mean development over the metro area. ouch for the tailgaters at soldiers field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Heavily WRF based, but SREF is also more impressive with the latest run. 985mb low over the UP by 18z Sunday. The area of overlap between modest CAPE and strong SHEAR continues to grow. Winds at 500mb increase to over 130kt now in the jetmax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Not much to add that hasn't already been said. This looks bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Not much to add that hasn't already been said. This looks bad. ^^^ I'm going to stop posting images, since we all know the data looks pretty glaring now. It will be interesting to see how the 00z GFS and Euro come out. Look for SPC to likely expand the risk zone with their upcoming Day 2 outlook with a MDT addition. I noticed that the 11/10/2002 analog continues to show up as a relatively close match over on the CIPS site. Dare I say this looks even more impressive after reviewing the NARR maps? Although the aerial coverage is not nearly as expansive. (I will note that the 4km NAM sim radar showed one hell of a squall line - in terms of length - from NY all the way down to LA by 6z Monday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 The big question for me is when will initiation take place. The parameters over northern IL at 15z are very impressive, but will there be any convection taking advantage of that? Some of the models don't kick off convection until around 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LouWX Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 0Z NAM 4km hits convective temp in the early afternoon around the Ohio River and starts popping discrete cells in 500 0-1 SRH. Other models still have the significant amount of morning convection... namely many of the members of the SREF. Still very ominous looking... that morning elevated convection might save the southern areas from the supercells but it probably won't stop the serious looking line rolling through toward 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 I think someone brought up the 11/15/05 event earlier in this thread and it being plagued by cloud cover/stratiform rain mass. The strength of that system is similar to the one forecast on Sunday and it managed to pull off an outbreak (verifying the high risk) despite problems with instability, with a 60+ kt LLJ and 110 kt H5 jet streak/etc. Surface temperatures that day in the OV were a bit warmer than forecasted on Saturday, but it also has to be taken into account that mid level temps will likely be significantly colder with this one. Dewpoints were relatively similar to what is forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 00z GFS...much, much slower. Edit: Compared to the 12z, since justification was clearly needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 0z GFS looks slower. LI's of -7 now over northern, northwest IL at 18z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 The NAM and GFS have definitely slowed down a good 3-5hrs since last night, and even this morning's 12z suites. This puts Chicagoland in a more serious risk IMO. If storms initiate by 18z, this would place the zone of initiation very close to, or even a bit west of Chicago per latest models. As a few have already mentioned, the Bears kickoff at noon at Soldier Field. Who would have thought a Bears game in mid November would have such a serious severe threat looming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 00z GFS...much, much slower. That's an exaggeration. Frontal timing is very close to the previous run. The SLP is deeper earlier this run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Even the usually warm biased in the mid levels GFS has -20˚C H5 temps pushing into IL by 18z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Needless to say the early 0z data grows the concern further across IL/IN. If discrete cells develop and become sustained in that environment...major issues to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 That's an exaggeration. Frontal timing is very close to the previous run. The SLP is deeper earlier this run though. I was generally looking at the H5 vort (although perhaps the deeper nature of it fooled me a bit). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 That's an exaggeration. Frontal timing is very close to the previous run. The SLP is deeper earlier this run though. Except if you compare on College of Dupage to previous runs the low a bit SW compared to previous two runs and also deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 That's an exaggeration. Frontal timing is very close to the previous run. The SLP is deeper earlier this run though. Just a tick slower than the 18z, but definitely slower than the 12z, and last night's 00z. Every little bit matters in a big way for the LOT area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Just a tick slower than the 18z, but definitely slower than the 12z, and last night's 00z. Every little bit matters in a big way for the LOT area. It'll continue to slow, too. It's like RC was saying about Victor's point...models aren't handling PV anomaly well. Did this on 10/4 too. Chicago's in big trouble... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Let's also note the GFS now has 70˚F temperatures to Chicago on Sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Except if you compare on College of Dupage to previous runs the low a bit SW compared to previous two runs and also deeper. I didn't say anything about the low. Frontal timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 I didn't say anything about the low. Frontal timing. Which will be slower as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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