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Major Severe Weather Outbreak November 17


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BTW, my 69 number connects the Jasper and Pulaski paths and the Tippecanoe-Clinton-Carroll and Cass paths.  If there are separations there, the number with rise.

 

 

Tippecanoe-Clinton-Carroll-Cass is listed as one tornado by both offices, so adding the lengths together would give a path length of 39 miles.  Still don't know about Jasper-Pulaski. 

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Final numbers may change but even allowing for minor additions or subtractions, the current preliminary number of EF2+ tornadoes in Illinois is the 2nd greatest in an outbreak in the state (only exceeded by 12/18/1957).  The current number of EF2+ tornadoes in Indiana would rank 3rd highest in an outbreak in the state (behind 6/2/1990 and 4/3/1974, in that order). 

 

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Here's some maps I put together using tornadohistoryproject

 

 

All November tornadoes 1950-2012

 

post-14-0-56016600-1385147793_thumb.png

 

 

 

F/EF2 or greater November tornadoes 1950-2012

 

post-14-0-49299000-1385147819_thumb.png

 

 

 

Now here's November tornadoes 1950-2012, minus the big outbreak years of 1992 and 2002

 

post-14-0-04379000-1385147916_thumb.png

 

 

 

F/EF2 or greater November tornadoes 1950-2012, minus the big outbreak years of 1992 and 2002

 

post-14-0-66083800-1385148021_thumb.png

 

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Tippecanoe-Clinton-Carroll-Cass is listed as one tornado by both offices, so adding the lengths together would give a path length of 39 miles.  Still don't know about Jasper-Pulaski. 

Jasper/Pulaski needs to be split.  I already had Tippecanoe-Cass County as one tornado.  Looks like another EF0 track will be added S of Lafayette, bringing the total to 71 thus far.

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Jasper/Pulaski needs to be split.  I already had Tippecanoe-Cass County as one tornado.  Looks like another EF0 track will be added S of Lafayette, bringing the total to 71 thus far.

 

I'm coming up with 72 if we split Jasper/Pulaski and add an EF0 south of Lafayette.  I'm guessing the discrepancy is probably in the MI or IN totals.  For Michigan, do you have the EF0 in Gaylord's cwa and the EF0 in Ingham county by GRR?

 

Here's what I have for Indiana if we split Jasper/Pulaski and add an EF0 south of Lafayette:

 

LOT:  3

IWX:  10  (not including the White county tornado from Benton county and the Cass county tornado from Carroll county)

IND:  13

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I'm coming up with 72 if we split Jasper/Pulaski and add an EF0 south of Lafayette.  I'm guessing the discrepancy is probably in the MI or IN totals.  For Michigan, do you have the EF0 in Gaylord's cwa and the EF0 in Ingham county by GRR?

 

Here's what I have for Indiana if we split Jasper/Pulaski and add an EF0 south of Lafayette:

 

LOT:  3

IWX:  10  (not including the White county tornado from Benton county and the Cass county tornado from Carroll county)

IND:  13

I split the touchdowns from GRR into 4 tors.  I don't know if any of those include Ingham County.  That would most likely be where the discrepancy is.

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I split the touchdowns from GRR into 4 tors.  I don't know if any of those include Ingham County.  That would most likely be where the discrepancy is.

 

It's a different area and not associated with the other 4.

0445 PM     TORNADO          3 NNW LESLIE            42.49N 84.46W   11/17/2013                   INGHAM             MI   NWS STORM SURVEY                TORNADO CAUSED EF-0 DAMAGE TO THREE RESIDENCES ALONG WITH              TREES AND SEVERAL OUTBUILDINGS. THIS OCCURRED NEAR THE               INTERSECTION OF ANNIS AND TUTTLE NEAR LESLIE. ESTIMATED               MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH. PATH LENGTH WAS AROUND               ONE QUARTER OF A MILE.   
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It's a different area and not associated with the other 4.

0445 PM     TORNADO          3 NNW LESLIE            42.49N 84.46W   11/17/2013                   INGHAM             MI   NWS STORM SURVEY                TORNADO CAUSED EF-0 DAMAGE TO THREE RESIDENCES ALONG WITH              TREES AND SEVERAL OUTBUILDINGS. THIS OCCURRED NEAR THE               INTERSECTION OF ANNIS AND TUTTLE NEAR LESLIE. ESTIMATED               MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH. PATH LENGTH WAS AROUND               ONE QUARTER OF A MILE.   

 

Yeah this was separate from the 4 touchdowns near Grand Rapids. Leslie is south of Lansing.

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Google Earth'ed a rough before photo. It's incredible how lucky that guy and his daughter were.

 

 

 

Unbelievable video.  Just glad they made it through unhurt. 

 

Here's how the house looked before, courtesy of Google Earth. 

nc0x.jpg

 

 

This is the row of houses starting immediately to the north of the house in the video.  Unfortunately it looks like all of these houses were destroyed.

a3je.jpg

 

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I'm doing a class presentation about this day and I am trying to figure out what exactly intiated the supercells in central Illinois.  There was almost no CIN and the area was under upper level divergence.  The thing that's throwing me off is that the storms were well ahead of the cold front so I'm not sure if the front played a big role.  Any help on what caused the storms to fire would be greatly appreciated.  Thanks.

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The preliminary total of 27 EF2 or greater tornadoes in Illinois and Indiana would be the most on record in any outbreak between those two states.  There's the usual caveats about rating damage and some older tornadoes being tornado families instead of one long path but it's still impressive for any time of year let alone mid-November.

 

 

11/17/2013:  27
6/2/1990:  23
4/3/1974:  22

 

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I'm doing a class presentation about this day and I am trying to figure out what exactly intiated the supercells in central Illinois.  There was almost no CIN and the area was under upper level divergence.  The thing that's throwing me off is that the storms were well ahead of the cold front so I'm not sure if the front played a big role.  Any help on what caused the storms to fire would be greatly appreciated.  Thanks.

 

Probably the pre-frontal trough.  Here's a surface map valid at 20z so it's when the storms were out of most of Illinois but you can see signs of it with the flatness yet small kinks of the isobars south of the surface low out ahead of the actual cold front, which is still back around Chicago to southeast of St Louis at the time.

 

 

sfc_20z.png

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Probably the pre-frontal trough.  Here's a surface map valid at 20z so it's when the storms were out of most of Illinois but you can see signs of it with the flatness yet small kinks of the isobars south of the surface low out ahead of the actual cold front, which is still back around Chicago to southeast of St Louis at the time.

 

 

 

I had heard about the pre-frontal trough but it's so subtle that the products on Plymouth State really don't show any signs of one.  Thanks for sharing the map and your insight.

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I had heard about the pre-frontal trough but it's so subtle that the products on Plymouth State really don't show any signs of one.  Thanks for sharing the map and your insight.

 

No prob.

 

I don't know if I'd call it a requirement for outbreaks in this region but potential is usually heightened when storms can fire well ahead of the cold front.  This isn't the Plains where the dryline is a continual player, though a dryline or pseudo-dryline feature occasionally makes it eastward into the region and has been a feature in some bigger outbreaks. 

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No prob.

 

I don't know if I'd call it a requirement for outbreaks in this region but potential is usually heightened when storms can fire well ahead of the cold front.  This isn't the Plains where the dryline is a continual player, though a dryline or pseudo-dryline feature occasionally makes it eastward into the region and has been a feature in some bigger outbreaks. 

 

From my observation, a subtle boundary ahead of the main cold front (e.g. a pre-frontal trough) is a major feature in almost all east-of-Plains outbreaks. In general, it is important to have a focal point for more discrete forcing, instead of having everything blow up on the cold front at once.

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO,IL  531 PM CST THU NOV 28 2013 /631 PM EST THU NOV 28 2013/     ..ADDITIONAL TORNADO CONFIRMED FROM NOVEMBER 17TH OUTBREAK    .SATELLITE TORNADO EAST OF DANA ILLINOIS SOUTH OF LONG TRACKED   TORNADO...    RATING:                 EF-0  ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    75 MPH  PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  3 MILES  PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   50 YARDS  FATALITIES:             NONE  INJURIES:               NONE    START DATE:             NOV 17 2013  START TIME:             1143 AM CST  START LOCATION:         1 E DANA IL   START LAT/LON:          40.9587 / -88.9251    END DATE:               NOV 17 2013  END TIME:               1146 AM CST  END LOCATION:           2 SSE LONG POINT IL   END_LAT/LON:            40.9800 / -88.8840     * DISCUSSION: THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS RECEIVED STORM   CHASER VIDEO OF A SATELLITE TORNADO WHICH FORMED SOUTH OF THE   LONG TRACKED TORNADO THAT MOVED FROM WASHINGTON ILLINOIS INTO   EXTREME SOUTHERN LASALLE AND SOUTHWEST LIVINGSTON COUNTY. THIS   TORNADO ONLY LAST A FEW MINUTES AND NO DAMAGE HAS BEEN CONFIRMED   WITH THIS SECOND BRIEF TORNADO.    NOTE:  THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO  CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN  NWS STORM DATA.     

 

 

IZZI 

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