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Major Severe Weather Outbreak November 17

Hoosier

By Hoosier,
in Weather Forecasting and Discussion

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tornadotony

tornadotony

Posted
Posted

Scientific advancements and better awareness no doubt saved a lot of lives, but it's pretty insulting to say that this outbreak was similar to Palm Sunday.  There's a reason that EF4/EF5 tornadoes produce a disproportionately high number of fatalities.  Palm Sunday had 18 F4s.  Another outbreak with anything remotely close to that with tornadoes tracking through populated areas might not produce a death toll like 1965 but it's a virtual guarantee that it would've been much higher than what happened this past Sunday.

This outbreak honestly probably best compares to 11/10/02 or 3/12/06.  The fatality difference between this and 11/10/02 is the lack of SE involvement.

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andyhb

andyhb

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This outbreak honestly probably best compares to 11/10/02 or 3/12/06.  The fatality difference between this and 11/10/02 is the lack of SE involvement.

 

Considering that very few tornadoes in this event severely impacted mobile home parks/areas where mobile homes are plentiful definitely lowered the casualty count. Of course, the one that did majorly impact a mobile home-dominated area, the Brookfield tornado, ended up being the deadliest of the outbreak. 

 

Also as Schaumburg noted earlier, with the Washington tornado, a lot of the homes were vacant at the time the tornado struck, with people attending church services, etc. Had the tornado struck said church, there probably would've been a major problem.

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Gilbertfly

Gilbertfly

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Posted

Scientific advancements and better awareness no doubt saved a lot of lives, but it's pretty insulting to say that this outbreak was similar to Palm Sunday.  There's a reason that EF4/EF5 tornadoes produce a disproportionately high number of fatalities.  Palm Sunday had 18 F4s.  Another outbreak with anything remotely close to that with tornadoes tracking through populated areas might not produce a death toll like 1965 but it's a virtual guarantee that it would've been much higher than what happened this past Sunday.

 

In addition, It's been stated that many people in the subdivision that got hit in Washington were at a local church...I'm sure some lives were spared by the fact they weren't at home...I'm not going to claim that it saved ALL of their lives, but that certainly helped keep fatalities down in Washington.  However, in the same respect, had the tornado path been shifted by just a few miles and hit the church that had many people in it....then the fatalities could also have gone much higher potentially. 

 

Also, as you stated, had a majority of the tornados been in the EF4 + category, odds would favor more fatalities...

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JoMo

JoMo

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This is offtopic... sort of... but I thought I would put it in here since many of these communities will be coping with the same thing and I feel more people will see it.

 

The NIST report (scientific and technical investigation draft report) from the Joplin Tornado will be webcast tomorrow starting at 10:15 AM Central time:

http://www.nist.gov/public_affairs/techbeat/joplin-webcast.html

 

 

The report will cover:

 

·The characteristics of the wind hazard from the tornado;

·The pattern, location and cause of injuries and fatalities, and how these numbers were affected by emergency communications and the public response to those communications;

·The performance of residential, commercial and critical (police stations, firehouses, hospitals, etc.) buildings;

·The performance of lifelines (natural gas, electrical distribution, water, communications, etc.) as they relate to maintaining building operation.

The team, if warranted, would recommend improvements to building codes, standards and practices based on the findings of the study.

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WEATHER53

WEATHER53

Posted
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This is offtopic... sort of... but I thought I would put it in here since many of these communities will be coping with the same thing and I feel more people will see it.

 

The NIST report (scientific and technical investigation draft report) from the Joplin Tornado will be webcast tomorrow starting at 10:15 AM Central time:

http://www.nist.gov/public_affairs/techbeat/joplin-webcast.html

 

 

The report will cover:

 

·The characteristics of the wind hazard from the tornado;

·The pattern, location and cause of injuries and fatalities, and how these numbers were affected by emergency communications and the public response to those communications;

·The performance of residential, commercial and critical (police stations, firehouses, hospitals, etc.) buildings;

·The performance of lifelines (natural gas, electrical distribution, water, communications, etc.) as they relate to maintaining building operation.

The team, if warranted, would recommend improvements to building codes, standards and practices based on the findings of the study.

I guess it'a about a year and half but is it pretty normal around you now or still a lot of rebuilding? Also, how are people? Is it still kinda "eggshell" or are most people mentally and emotionally recovered?

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Ensō

Ensō

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Posted

Scientific advancements and better awareness no doubt saved a lot of lives, but it's pretty insulting to say that this outbreak was similar to Palm Sunday.  There's a reason that EF4/EF5 tornadoes produce a disproportionately high number of fatalities.  Palm Sunday had 18 F4s.  Another outbreak with anything remotely close to that with tornadoes tracking through populated areas might not produce a death toll like 1965 but it's a virtual guarantee that it would've been much higher than what happened this past Sunday.

 

I couldn't help laughing when I saw that. I can't imagine how someone could seriously suggest that, especially someone who is supposed to be an expert. The Palm Sunday outbreak was one of the most intense outbreaks in modern history. Might as well have gone all the way and compared it to the Super Outbreak.  :rolleyes:

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JoMo

JoMo

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I guess it'a about a year and half but is it pretty normal around you now or still a lot of rebuilding? Also, how are people? Is it still kinda "eggshell" or are most people mentally and emotionally recovered?

 

I put the latest updates on the Joplin tornado in the Joplin thread here:

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/18858-devastating-tornado-strikes-joplin-missouri/page-44

 

I just wanted to let emergency managers and other people know about the NIST webcast tomorrow morning because some of those things may apply to this situation.

 

And to answer your questions.... It's been about 2 1/2 years, there's still some rebuilding, but it has slowed down, people are still scared of storms, and most people never had a problem talking about what happened.

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andyhb

andyhb

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I like to consider 4/11/65 in the Great Lakes region to be somewhat analogous to 4/27/11 in the Deep South. Both outbreaks featured major communication problems (I'd venture 4/27 had greater such problems, which partly offset its advantage in warning lead time/technology). Both outbreaks featured a large number of fast-moving violent tornadoes over a relatively dense/compact coverage area and both also featured a similar amount of hits to densely populated areas.

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thewxmann

thewxmann

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This outbreak honestly probably best compares to 11/10/02 or 3/12/06.  The fatality difference between this and 11/10/02 is the lack of SE involvement.

 

Right. I'd like to add in addition to higher mobile home density, basements are generally less common in the SE than in the Upper Midwest. I'd have to think the Washington fatality count would have been higher if not for the timing and basements.

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andyhb

andyhb

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Also as Schaumburg noted earlier, with the Washington tornado, a lot of the homes were vacant at the time the tornado struck, with people attending church services, etc. Had the tornado struck said church, there probably would've been a major problem.

 

To add on to this point, if the tornado had struck later on, rather than before noon, then more of the houses would've likely been occupied.

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SchaumburgStormer

SchaumburgStormer

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To add on to this point, if the tornado had struck later on, rather than before noon, then more of the houses would've likely been occupied.

 

Absolutely agree. And to echo previous comments, 1/2 mile further north, the massive church currently being utilized as the main red cross shelter would have taken a direct hit. Per my conversations with the mayor and several citizens, this church was full at the time of the storm with the occupants rushing into bathrooms and other storm shelters.  1/2 mile further south, and much more of the downtown and business district takes a direct hit.

 

If there is a "best case" scenario for a tornado in this community, the track this tornado took would be it.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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This is the state by state count that I've come up with so far.  Obviously this is subject to change and hopefully I didn't make any errors (had to be careful as multiple tornadoes crossed NWS cwa boundaries)

 

In order from greatest to least

 

 

Indiana:  24 (1 EF3, 11 EF2, 8 EF1, 3 EF0, 1 EF???)

 

Illinois:  21  (2 EF4, 3 EF3, 9 EF2, 5 EF1, 2 EF0)
 

Kentucky:  6  (3 EF1, 3 EF3)

 

Michigan:  6  (1 EF1, 5 EF0)

 

Ohio:  5  (2 EF2, 3 EF1)

 

Tennessee:  3  (1 EF1, 2 EF0)

 

Missouri:  2  (1 EF3, 1 EF0)

 

 

Notes: 

 

Tornadoes that affected more than one state were counted for BOTH states (I think this only happened once), so this does not mean there were 67 tornadoes in total.

 

The series of tornadoes in the Grand Rapids, MI cwa were counted as 4 EF0s

 

Jasper/Pulaski county Indiana were counted as 2 separate EF1 tornadoes (some conflict here with LOT saying the tornado continued into Pulaski county but IWX showing a break in the path)
 

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Disc

Disc

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Posted

I have a specific request for my own personal interest. I would like a reflectivity/velocity image from Level 2 data on the tornadoes in Wood and Lucas Counties, OH, if you can find the vortex(vortices). This was at 2238z. I used to live in two places near where the EF2 tornado hit in Wood/Lucas county. I captured the radar on GRLevel3, but the velocity data didn't show me much. I didn't even think it was a tornado.

 

An EF-2 tornado traveled a 12 mile long path through part of Wood and Lucas Counties on Sunday evening, the National Weather Service confirms.

mkiDZRy.pnghttp://i.imgur.com/mkiDZRy.png

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tornadotony

tornadotony

Posted
Posted

This is the state by state count that I've come up with so far.  Obviously this is subject to change and hopefully I didn't make any errors (had to be careful as multiple tornadoes crossed NWS cwa boundaries)

 

In order from greatest to least

 

 

Indiana:  24 (1 EF3, 11 EF2, 8 EF1, 3 EF0, 1 EF???)

 

Illinois:  21  (2 EF4, 3 EF3, 9 EF2, 5 EF1, 2 EF0)

 

Kentucky:  6  (3 EF1, 3 EF3)

 

Michigan:  6  (1 EF1, 5 EF0)

 

Ohio:  5  (2 EF2, 3 EF1)

 

Tennessee:  3  (1 EF1, 2 EF0)

 

 

Notes: 

 

Tornadoes that affected more than one state were counted for BOTH states (I think this only happened once), so this does not mean there were 65 tornadoes in total.

 

The series of tornadoes in the Grand Rapids, MI cwa were counted as 4 EF0s

 

Jasper/Pulaski county Indiana were counted as 2 separate EF1 tornadoes (some conflict here with LOT saying the tornado continued into Pulaski county but IWX showing a break in the path)

 

I know you're missing an EF0 and an EF3 in Missouri.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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Something pretty remarkable about this outbreak is that as of right now, just short of half of the confirmed tornadoes are EF2 or stronger.  Amongst outbreaks in this region of the country with similar or larger overall totals, I can't really think of another recent one like that and it will be interesting to see what the final numbers are.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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Updated totals

 

 

Indiana:  26 (1 EF3, 11 EF2, 10 EF1, 3 EF0, 1 EF???)

 

Illinois:  24  (2 EF4, 3 EF3, 9 EF2, 8 EF1, 2 EF0)

 

Michigan:  7  (1 EF1, 6 EF0)
 

Kentucky:  6  (3 EF1, 3 EF3)

 

Ohio:  5  (2 EF2, 3 EF1)

 

Tennessee:  3  (1 EF1, 2 EF0)

 

Missouri:  2  (1 EF3, 1 EF0)

 

 

Notes: 

 

Tornadoes that affected more than one state were counted for BOTH states (I think this only happened once), so this does not mean there were 73 tornadoes in total.

 

The series of tornadoes in the northwestern Grand Rapids, MI cwa were counted as 4 EF0s

 

Jasper/Pulaski county Indiana were counted as 2 separate EF1 tornadoes (some conflict here with LOT saying the tornado continued into Pulaski county but IWX showing a break in the path)

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blackjack123

blackjack123

Posted
Posted

It looks more or less set from the damage assessment toolkit.  Nothing's officially final until Storm Data publication, but it looks like it will probably stay 190 MPH.

  I do not now why NWS will not budge on this tornado. The forward movement and wind rowing from this tornado was extremely incredible. Do they even realize no tornado has ever rated F5/EF5 during the month of November. Sorry if this offends anybody but it really is frustrating.

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