Chicago Storm Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Oh for pete's sake is the NAM. C'mon. Obviously. We all know it's terrible outside of 24hrs or so. At the same time you can't deny that it has trended towards the overall idea of a more progressive solution, which is gaining support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Obviously. We all know it's terrible outside of 24hrs or so. At the same time you can't deny that it has trended towards the overall idea of a more progressive solution, which is gaining support. I won't consider it a trend until the Euro budges off it's rock-steady solution that it's had so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 00z GFS looks like it might jump ship EDIT: Its closer..but still relatively progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 I won't consider it a trend until the Euro budges off it's rock-steady solution that it's had so far. I agree with this, Global models vs US models when there is this much disagreement you have to look at the ensemble forecast and individual ensemble members. I doubt the Euro will change it's idea's all that much, even though I may be going out on a limb with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Yeah GFS is a slight trend toward less progressive...toss the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Biggest difference this run is the southern low is of more focus, and it's deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Biggest difference this run is the southern low is of more focus, and it's deeper. I agree, the 15/0z run of the GFS is trending towards the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 15, 2013 Author Share Posted November 15, 2013 Something I've noticed after looking at crossover maps and a lot of forecast soundings is that the directional shear really doesn't jump off the page. It's more of a gentle/gradual veering with height throughout the column. Speed shear is phenomenal. With a rapidly deepening surface low you have to wonder if sfc winds may tend to be a little more backed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Something I've noticed after looking at crossover maps and a lot of forecast soundings is that the directional shear really doesn't jump off the page. It's more of a gentle/gradual veering with height throughout the column. Speed shear is phenomenal. With a rapidly deepening surface low you have to wonder if sfc winds may tend to be a little more backed. The wind profiles are very similar to/reminiscent of 3/2/12 in this regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 00z GEM is similar to the Euro, a bit faster and less deep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 The wind profiles are very similar to/reminiscent of 3/2/12 in this regard. Besides the Henryville tornado and others in that area that day, were the other strong tornadoes that occurred out in the warm sector in Central and Eastern KY on the warm front? I can't quite remember. I do however remember chasing that day and getting suckered away from the warm front when I saw some of the hi res models showing ridiculous amounts of CAPE for March... smdh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 The wind profiles are very similar to/reminiscent of 3/2/12 in this regard. 11/10/02 also comes to mind where localized backing of the surface winds in western OH enhanced the low level shear and undoubtedly enhanced the supercells that ended up firing there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Besides the Henryville tornado and others in that area that day, were the other strong tornadoes that occurred out in the warm sector in Central and Eastern KY on the warm front? I can't quite remember. I do however remember chasing that day and getting suckered away from the warm front when I saw some of the hi res models showing ridiculous amounts of CAPE for March... smdh... Yeah almost all the sig tor activity was along the warm front until that night in AL/GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 00z GEM is similar to the Euro, a bit faster ans less deep Ends up dropping the surface pressure into the 960s by late Sunday night northeast of Lake Superior. Pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Hi res nam at the end of its run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Looking at the model runs for Sunday, there are some very similar positions of the 500mb features, compared to November 10, 2002. BTW, these images are on my website. Why? Because the Van Wert F4 was tracking toward me (sort of) on that day! http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/SevereStorms/Nov_10_to_12_2002/model_images/nov_10_12z_500_vort_0hour.gif http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/SevereStorms/Nov_10_to_12_2002/model_images/nov_11_0z_500_vort_12hour.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 00z UK shows the southern sfc low becoming dominant as well and moving from the NW tip of MO at 12z Sunday to the Upper Peninsula of MI at 72 hrs. It's rather similar to the 12z Euro with a bit more of an eastern track with the sfc low. It's worth noting that the more western track of the sfc low with the 12z Euro serves to keep boundary layer winds basically straight out of the south, leading to stronger directional shear in the low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 15, 2013 Author Share Posted November 15, 2013 Re: 11/10/2002, I think the wind profiles with the upcoming storm are more impressive. Does it mean we could get something that exceeds 11/10/02??? (rhetorical question) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Re: 11/10/2002, I think the wind profiles with the upcoming storm are more impressive. Does it mean we could get something that exceeds 11/10/02??? (rhetorical question) I think the mesoscale takes over at a certain point (precip from the lead wave, gravity waves, etc.). I don't want to speculate about this being worse than 11/10/02 since that's kinda one of all-time granddaddies for fall (up with 11/21-11/23/92 and 11/24/01). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 I think the mesoscale takes over at a certain point (precip from the lead wave, gravity waves, etc.). I don't want to speculate about this being worse than 11/10/02 since that's kinda one of all-time granddaddies for fall (up with 11/21-11/23/92 and 11/24/01). Yea, 11/10/02 in my opinion was the biggest fall outbreak of my lifetime (22 years). That's the benchmark lol. But I agree with some of you guys, this comparison is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Yea, 11/10/02 in my opinion was the biggest fall outbreak of my lifetime (22 years). That's the benchmark lol. But I agree with some of you guys, this comparison is interesting. No, if you were alive in 1992, then that outbreak is solidly the biggest fall outbreak of your lifetime (95 tornadoes, 45 sig tors, 6 violent). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 15, 2013 Author Share Posted November 15, 2013 I think the mesoscale takes over at a certain point (precip from the lead wave, gravity waves, etc.). I don't want to speculate about this being worse than 11/10/02 since that's kinda one of all-time granddaddies for fall (up with 11/21-11/23/92 and 11/24/01). I put rhetorical in there deliberately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 I was one year old, does that count? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Can't tell what happens in between yet, but the 00z Euro at 72 hrs has the SLP in a position slightly east of the 96 hr frame of last night's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 15, 2013 Author Share Posted November 15, 2013 Well I think the takeaway tonight is that the NAM is now the most progressive and the Euro is still the slowest but maybe not quite to the degree as before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Euro looks close to previous runs, maybe a tad faster. Threat still looks to extend even down here Sunday night. I'd say IN is probably the highest threat area, and yeah, I mean the whole state more or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Euro looks close to previous runs, maybe a tad faster. Threat still looks to extend even down here Sunday night. I'd say IN is probably the highest threat area, and yeah, I mean the whole state more or less. Surface winds don't look quite as backed across Indiana as they did on the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 I think the mesoscale takes over at a certain point (precip from the lead wave, gravity waves, etc.). I don't want to speculate about this being worse than 11/10/02 since that's kinda one of all-time granddaddies for fall (up with 11/21-11/23/92 and 11/24/01). Up in the Great Lakes area, 10/24/01 was real bad too. What a crazy couple of falls those two years had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Surface winds don't look quite as backed across Indiana as they did on the 12z run. Something to watch, but they're fine right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Something to watch, but they're fine right now. Speed shear is pretty incredible though which can be a big player this time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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