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Major Severe Weather Outbreak November 17


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mcd2022.gif

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2022
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN PORTIONS OF IND/LOWER MI...FAR WRN OH

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 562...564...

VALID 172051Z - 172215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 562...564...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...GREATEST NEAR-TERM SIGNIFICANT TORNADO RISK SHOULD EVOLVE
ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN IND INTO FAR WRN OH...WITH GREATEST
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND RISK ACROSS CNTRL/ERN LOWER MI INTO NERN
IND/NWRN OH.

DISCUSSION...MOST PERSISTENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES SHOULD CONTINUE
ALONG THE TRAILING PORTION OF A STRONGLY-FORCED QLCS AND
SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS FARTHER S IN SWRN IND. A FEW OF THESE SUPERCELLS
HAVE BEEN INTENSELY-ROTATING AND MAY CONTINUE TO YIELD A RISK OF
LONG-TRACK SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES GIVEN 50-60 KT MOVEMENT AND 45-50
KT 0-1 KM SHEAR PER AREA VWP DATA. FARTHER N...WHERE STRONGER
FORCING AND LINEAR MODE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT...SEVERAL MEASURED
SEVERE WIND GUSTS HAVE OCCURRED WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT SEVERE GUSTS
AS WELL. WITHIN VERY STRONG LOWER-LEVEL FLOW AND A TIGHT PRESSURE
RISE/FALL COUPLET ASSOCIATED WITH THE 986 MB CYCLONE OVER NWRN LOWER
MI...THESE TYPES OF GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE DESPITE THIN/MARGINALLY
BUOYANT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SAMPLED IN 19Z APX/DTX RAOBS.

..GRAMS.. 11/17/2013

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Local Storm Report by NWS PAH: Brookport [Massac Co, IL] emergency mngr reports TORNADO at 02:20 PM CST -- confirmed. update report. tornado struck near the dam on the west side of town and travel through to east side. 2 mobile home parks took direct hit. at least 50 mobile homes destroyed. search and rescue responding. numerous injuries reported.

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