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Major Severe Weather Outbreak November 17


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High risk for Tor/Winds

 

 

day1probotlk_2000_wind.gif

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
   AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OH
   VALLEY...

   SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO IS EVOLVING AS PREDICTED EARLIER WITH A
   PRIMARY BAND OF SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING FROM WRN LOWER MI SWD TOWARD
   THE LOWER OH VALLEY.  THIS ACTIVITY HAS FEATURED SEVERAL LONG-LIVED
   TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL IL...WITH OTHER MORE
   DISCRETE SUPERCELLS FROM SERN MO INTO SRN IL.  THE CONVECTIVE MODE
   APPEARS TO BE TRANSITIONING TOWARD MORE LINEAR STRUCTURES WITH
   EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES/LEWPS...WHICH MAY HAVE POTENTIAL FOR MESOVORTEX
   DEVELOPMENT...AS WELL AS OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. 
   THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES /SOME STRONG/ SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
   EVENING...WHILE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
   /INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS/ IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
   INDIANA...SRN LOWER MI...AND OH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THIS
   WILL OCCUR AS THE SEVERE QLCS BEGINS TO ACCELERATE EWD IN RESPONSE
   TO A 100+ KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING TOWARD THE OH VALLEY.

   AS THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD TONIGHT...IT WILL GRADUALLY
   ENCOUNTER A LESS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   COOLS/STABILIZES AFTER DARK.  HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMIC
   FORCING COUPLED WITH VERY STRONG WINDS AT ALL LEVELS IMMEDIATELY
   ABOVE THE GROUND INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS INTO
   THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONE OR MORE RAPIDLY MOVING
   LOW-TOPPED QLCS/S.
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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2020.html

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2020   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0205 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013   AREAS AFFECTED...OH   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY    VALID 172005Z - 172130Z   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT   SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE DOWNSTREAM OF WW 562 IS EXPECTED BY   2130Z AS A QLCS RACES EWD FROM IND. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ALONG   WITH A FEW TORNADOES APPEAR LIKELY...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE   SIGNIFICANT.   DISCUSSION...CURRENT 55-60 KT MOVEMENT OF A QLCS AND SEMI-DISCRETE   SUPERCELLS ACROSS WRN IND EXTRAPOLATES TO A 2230-2300Z TIMING AT THE   ERN EDGE OF WW 562. WHILE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND A BAND OF   LOW-LEVEL WAA DRIVEN RAINFALL HAVE YIELDED NEGLIGIBLE BUOYANCY PER   19Z ILN RAOB...A LARGE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE ACCOMPANYING A POWERFUL   CYCLONE OVER LK MI SHOULD RESULT IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MARGINAL   BUOYANCY INTO OH BY EARLY EVENING. ALREADY STRONG WIND PROFILES WILL   STRENGTHEN FURTHER...SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND   A FEW TORNADOES.   ..GRAMS/MEAD.. 11/17/2013   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX..
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PAH issues Tornado Warning [tornado: OBSERVED, hail: 1.00 IN] for Livingston, McCracken [KY] and Massac, Pope [iL] till 2:45 PM CST ...AT 206 PM CST...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF WEST PADUCAH...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. SPOTTERS REPORTED A BARN WAS DESTROYED AS THE STORM MOVED THROUGH OSCAR IN BALLARD COUNTY.

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN MASSAC COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
  SOUTHEASTERN POPE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
  SOUTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
  NORTHERN MCCRACKEN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
 
* UNTIL 245 PM CST
 
* AT 206 PM CST...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST
  OF WEST PADUCAH...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. SPOTTERS REPORTED A 
  BARN WAS DESTROYED AS THE STORM MOVED THROUGH OSCAR IN BALLARD
  COUNTY.
 
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For Indiana

 

 

AT 306 PM EST...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTH OF

DELPHI...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 75 MPH.
 
FIRE OFFICIALS INDICATED A TORNADO ON THE GROUND NEAR THE 
INTERSECTION OF COUNTY ROADS 1000W AND 700N IN NORTHWEST CLINTON 
COUNTY. THIS TORNADO WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CARROLL COUNTY.

 

 

212 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

 
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN PULASKI COUNTY
UNTIL 230 PM CST...
 
AT 208 PM CST...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MEDARYVILLE...
AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.
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