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Major Severe Weather Outbreak November 17


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WW 565 TORNADO IN KY 171955Z - 180300Z  

AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..  

45NNW SDF/LOUISVILLE KY/ - 30SSW BWG/BOWLING GREEN KY/  

..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /46NNW IIU - 23SSW BWG/  

HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.  

MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.

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FARTHER S...TENDENCY FOR MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES APPEAR

PROBABLE FOR CONVECTION EMANATING NEWD OUT OF SRN IL. ALTHOUGH

DOWNSTREAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER...VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL

SHEAR NOTED IN KVWX VWP DATA WILL SUPPORT A CONSIDERABLE RISK OF

SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES AS CONVECTION REMAINS COINCIDENT WITHIN A

PLUME OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS.

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EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN  

254 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013  

  

INC083-172015-  

/O.CON.KIND.TO.W.0021.000000T0000Z-131117T2015Z/  

KNOX IN-  

254 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013  

  

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KNOX COUNTY UNTIL 315 PM  

EST...  

  

AT 249 PM EST...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF  

MOUNT CARMEL...AND MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.  

  

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  

  

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  

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While the activity is certainly becoming more linear in nature the threat for tornadoes and strong tornadoes will certainly be there.  There are numerous breaks within the line which are exhibiting strong rotation given the degree of helicity present.  The southern flank of the line certainly needs to be watched as well given this is the area certainly most favorable for tornadic development.  The environment may also be favorable for spinups right along the gust front as well (or just along the leading edge of the line.  

 

The activity though is beginning to move into an area where instability is much less so the thermodynamics aren't the same.  While shear continues to be as impressive, the loss of a stronger thermodynamic environment could lead to weakened updrafts and given how strongly sheared the environment is, updrafts may not have the strength they once did so it may be difficult to generate mature supercells like we have witnessed.  Regardless, even if the potential for tornadoes (or stronger ones) decreases the potential for widespread damaging winds will absolutely be there.

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

EAST CENTRAL MUSKEGON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN...

SOUTHEASTERN NEWAYGO COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 315 PM EST

* AT 249 PM EST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A

TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BAILEY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

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