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Major Severe Weather Outbreak November 17


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KPAH is using the "PDS" wording on every single TOR Warning.. I thought the purpose of them is when there is a destructive tornado about to hit some sort of population center, not when there "might" be a developing tornado, albeit I do see their point, just being precautionary given the situation and setup...

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A 75 mph gust just south of the field is not strong? 

 

Wll that is no bueno..but the tornadic activity has missed that region for now..Gees now I'm losing on both ends of the spectrum. I was just accused of hyping the situation at Soldier field when I posted that people were standing in the aisles of the upper deck in the elements..

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MCD for the cells further south approaching the OV.

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2017
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN IL...FAR SERN MO...FAR WRN KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 563...

VALID 171905Z - 172000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 563 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL EXIST IN THE
SHORT-TERM WITH CONVECTION APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER.

DISCUSSION...AN ARC OF DISCRETE TO SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS HAS
ADVANCED OFF THE INITIATING BOUNDARY /PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/ INTO A
MODEST-WIDTH WARM SECTOR FEATURING MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. INTENSE
PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 6 MB PER 2 HOURS IN CNTRL IL ARE DRIVING AN
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE THAT ENCOURAGES ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD TRANSPORT
OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE N OF THE OHIO RIVER -- DEWPOINTS AROUND
64-67F -- SUPPORTING LOW LCL/S AMIDST THE MODERATE INSTABILITY.
SUBSIDING BRANCHES OF WAVE-LIKE STRUCTURES EMBEDDED IN THE LOW-LEVEL
STRATUS FIELD IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING THE CONVECTION ARE SUPPORTING
AREAS OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO BOLSTER BUOYANCY WHILE ALSO REFLECTING
THE PARTICULARLY INTENSE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE. PAH VWP DATA
INDICATE A FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH FOR TORNADOGENESIS WITH 0-1-KM SRH
AOA 500 M2/S2 AND AROUND 80 KT OF 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR LARGELY
ORTHOGONAL TO THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. SUSTAINED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITH AT LEAST MODEST SPATIAL DISPLACEMENTS FROM OTHER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES IN THE
SHORT TERM AS THEY APPROACH THE OHIO RIVER.

..COHEN.. 11/17/2013
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I have read a lot of tornado warnings in the last several years and this is the first time I have seen the elevated hazard threat language for storms that did not already have a tornado on the ground. As of this post the two in southern IL and SE MO with that language are radar indicated and one with a reported funnel cloud. The ones earlier with that language had large tornadoes on the ground. 

 

2013.11.17.1314.png

In this image I have a list of tornadoes and below the purple text a summary of the text. The one with the grey triangle has a funnel cloud reported, the ones with green triangles are radar indicated. The BLACK tornado is triggered off the large and extremely dangerous tornado language. The red one is a reported tornado on the ground.

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