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Major Severe Weather Outbreak November 17


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mcd2014.gif

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2014
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 171732Z - 171930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES ALONG WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP N OF WW 562 WITHIN A NARROW CORRIDOR
OF MARGINAL SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY

DISCUSSION...17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 989 MB CYCLONE OVER
E-CNTRL WI WITH A WARM FRONT ARCING ACROSS NRN LOWER MI.
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF CNTRL LK MI HAVE WARMED INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S...LIKELY YIELDING A THINLY BUOYANT
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WITH MLCAPE NEAR 500 J/KG. DESPITE THE MEAGER
INSTABILITY...VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES AND LEWP/BOWING-STRUCTURES AS STRONGLY-FORCED
CONVECTION CROSSES LK MI.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  

TORNADO WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL  

1133 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A  

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  

SOUTHERN GRUNDY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...  

EAST CENTRAL LA SALLE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  

NORTH CENTRAL LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  

 

* UNTIL 1215 PM CST  

 

* AT 1128 AM CST...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF  

MINONK...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.  

 

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  

 

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  

 

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO  

ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS  

WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS  

LIKELY.  

 

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  

STREATOR AROUND 1155 AM CST.  

RANSOM AROUND 1200 PM CST.  

KINSMAN AROUND 1205 PM CST.  

VERONA AROUND 1210 PM CST.  

MAZON AROUND 1215 PM CST.  

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