Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,587
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Major Severe Weather Outbreak November 17


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

WATCH ISSUED

 

WW 561 TORNADO IA IL IN MO WI LM 171440Z - 172200Z  
AXIS..100 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..  
25SSE BLV/SCOTT AFB IL/ - 40NE MSN/MADISON WI/  
..AVIATION COORDS.. 85NM E/W /42NE FAM - 33NW BAE/  
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.  
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

WATCH ISSUED

WW 561 TORNADO IA IL IN MO WI LM 171440Z - 172200Z

AXIS..100 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..

25SSE BLV/SCOTT AFB IL/ - 40NE MSN/MADISON WI/

..AVIATION COORDS.. 85NM E/W /42NE FAM - 33NW BAE/

HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.

MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.

Absolutely huge watch area

Link to comment
Share on other sites

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 561  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
840 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013  
 
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF  
EASTERN IOWA  
ILLINOIS  
NORTHWEST INDIANA  
NORTHEAST MISSOURI  
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN  
LAKE MICHIGAN  
 
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 840 AM UNTIL  
400 PM CST.  
   
..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION
 
 
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
SEVERAL INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY  
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL  
EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE  
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80  
MPH POSSIBLE  
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...ONE OR MORE BROKEN BANDS OF SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND RAPIDLY SPREAD EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE  
WATCH AREA TODAY. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND  
VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LONG  
TRACKED...SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL AND CORRIDORS OF WIND  
DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE LIKELY.  
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

DISCUSSION...ONE OR MORE BROKEN BANDS OF SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND RAPIDLY SPREAD EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WATCH AREA TODAY. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LONG TRACKED...SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL AND CORRIDORS OF WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE LIKELY.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

REA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL  
906 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013  
   
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
 
 
905 AM CST  
 
INITIAL STRING OF CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL.  
A MODIFIED 14Z DVN RAOB INDICATES WE ARE ALREADY UNCAPPED BASED ON  
OUR MID 60S DEW POINTS...WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE 1000-1500 J/KG  
ALREADY BASED ON THIS. WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE CHANNELS  
BOTH INDICATE MULTIPLE NORTH-TO-SOUTH CORRIDORS OF CONVERGENCE  
WITHIN THE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WHERE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY  
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP...WITH AGITATED CUMULUS FROM  
NORTHERN IL THROUGH CENTRAL MO.  
 
INITIAL CELLS HAVE ALREADY SHOWN ROTATION WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING  
CONSIDERING THE IMPRESSIVE 35-45 KT OF 0-1KM SHEAR AND 60KT+ OF  
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL EASE SOME AS THE  
LOW-LEVEL WIND MAXIMA MOVES NORTHEAST...IT WILL REMAIN PLENTY HIGH  
AND WELL ABOVE WHAT RESEARCH HAS SHOWN WHAT IS NEEDED FOR  
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. CONVECTIVE MODE INITIALLY MAY BE THESE  
STRINGS OF QUICK MOVING NORTHEAST CELLS...BUT IT IS STILL  
ANTICIPATED THAT INDIVIDUAL DISCRETE CELLS WITHIN THIS...OR JUST  
ON THEN OWN...WILL BE THE MAIN MODE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH  
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONVECTIVE  
ALLOWING MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS TREND AND THE LATEST ONES  
ARE FOR THE MOST PART IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE MAIN TIME FOR  
CHICAGOLAND CONTINUES TO LOOK TO BE WITHIN 11AM-3PM.  
 
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG UPDRAFTS WITHIN CONVECTION CAN BE VERY QUICK  
IN THIS HIGHLY DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...WITH SHEAR ON RADAR  
CORRELATING TO TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN SHORT TIME. THIS IS EVEN  
MORE REASON TO MAINTAIN A HIGH AWARENESS. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...