stormtrackertf Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 High risk area doubled it seems, this is the only image up on SPC yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 looks like high risk was expanded back into most of chicagoland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013 VALID 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ILLINOIS...INDIANA...WESTERN OHIO...AND SRN MICHIGAN... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA...FROM MUCH OF KENTUCKY AND EASTERN MISSOURI NEWD INTO THE LWR GRT LKS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH AND MDT RISK AREAS...FROM PARTS OF THE LWR MS VLY NEWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES/WRN NEW ENGLAND... ..SYNOPSIS SVR WEATHER OUTBREAK...WITH SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD DMGG WINDS...EXPECTED OVER THE OH VLY AND SRN GREAT LKS REGION TODAY/TNGT... POTENT CNTRL PLNS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH MID-LVL WIND SPEEDS AOA 100 KTS...WILL SWEEP E ACROSS THE NRN OZARKS/MID MS VLY LATER TODAY...AND ENE ACROSS THE OH VLY BY EARLY TNGT...BEFORE TURNING MORE NEWD ACROSS LWR GRT LKS/NRN APPALACHIANS EARLY MON. THE SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SFC LOW THAT SHOULD TRACK FROM SE IA THIS MORNING INTO NRN LWR MI BY EARLY TNGT. COLD FRONT TRAILING S AND SW FROM THE LOW...NOW EXTENDING THROUGH NW MO AND FAR ERN KS...SHOULD ACCELERATE E/SEWD THROUGH THE DAY...OVERTAKING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRY LINE OVER MO...AND REACHING WRN OH/N CNTRL KY THIS EVE. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE RAPIDLY E ACROSS THE LWR GRT LKS...THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND WRN NEW ENGLAND LATER TNGT/EARLY MON. COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG TO INTENSE WIND FIELD WITH APPRECIABLE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY OVER A FAIRLY WIDE AREA WILL YIELD A BROAD SWATH OF SVR WEATHER FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VLY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NORTHEAST. THE GREATEST/MOST CONCENTRATED SVR THREAT...INCLUDING POTENTIALLY STRONG AND/OR LONG-TRACK TORNADOES...SHOULD FOCUS OVER THE OH VLY AND ADJACENT PARTS OF THE MIDWEST BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TNGT. ...MID MS/OH/LWR TN VLYS NEWD TO LWR GRT LKS/WRN NEW ENGLAND TODAY THROUGH EARLY MON... LATEST OBSERVED DATA SHOW SFC LOW ALREADY STARTING TO DEEPEN OVER S CNTRL IA...WITH LOW-LVL MOIST AXIS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ACROSS CNTRL MO...ALONG AND E OF PRE-COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH. AT UPR LVLS...SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT EXIT REGION OF CNTRL PLNS JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS IA/NRN MO THROUGH MID-MORNING...AND INTO NRN/CNTRL IL BY MIDDAY. COMBINATION OF INCREASING ASCENT/MID-LVL COOLING WITH THE JET STREAK...CONTINUED LOW-LVL MOISTURE INFLOW /WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 60 F/...AND MODEST SFC HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF MERGING COLD FRONT/TROUGH BY MID TO LATE MORNING OVER ERN MO AND CNTRL/NRN IL. OTHER STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN ZONE OF STRENGTHENING WAA FROM ERN IA INTO FAR NRN IL/SRN WI. INTENSITY OF LOW TO MID-LVL WIND FIELD...PARTICULARLY WITH 700 MB SPEEDS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 50 AND 70 KTS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SUBSTANTIAL SFC-BASED BUOYANCY /SBCAPE RANGING FROM 500-1000 J PER KG/...WILL YIELD AN ENVIRONMENT VERY FAVORABLE FOR LONG-LIVED DISCRETE TO SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...BEGINNING IN FAR ERN MO...AND THEN CONTINUING ENE ACROSS MUCH OF IL...IND...FAR SRN WI...SRN MI AND WRN OH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WHILE STRENGTH OF SHEAR /RELATIVE TO DEGREE OF LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE AND BUOYANCY/...AND DESTRUCTIVE INTERFERENCE BETWEEN STORMS MAY PROVE TO BE LIMITING FACTORS...SETUP NONETHELESS APPEARS CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING A FEW LONG-TRACK/POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADOES. WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY THIS EVE AS LINEAR FORCING INCREASES ALONG STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT...THE STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO SEVERAL BROKEN LINES...WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS AND RESIDUAL SUPERCELL CIRCULATIONS CONTINUING TO POSE A RISK FOR DMGG WIND EWD INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS. WHILE TIME OF DAY WILL BE UNFAVORABLE...STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD/DCVA...AND PRESENCE OF EXITING CONVECTIVE BAND SUGGEST AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR DMGG WINDS EARLY MON EWD INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. FARTHER S...MID-LVL WARMING ON S SIDE OF AMPLIFIED MIDWESTERN JET STREAK MAY SOMEWHAT HINDER STORM DEVELOPMENT/DELAY SVR THREAT IN VERY MOIST/MODERATELY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER THE LWR TN AND LWR MS VLYS. NEVERTHELESS...AT LEAST A LOW CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SVR STORMS /INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH A TORNADO OR TWO/...WILL EXIST IN THIS REGION THROUGH EARLY TNGT...ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS RECEIVING ENHANCED AFTN SFC HEATING. ..CORFIDI/PETERS.. 11/17/2013 CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Better view... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 High risk area doubled it seems, this is the only image up on SPC yet... All areas greatly expanded: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Guys - please try to keep the weather discussion on topic and only weather related. If you need to reach out to people individually do so in PM and lets try to stay away from how the NFL will handle the severe weather threat. Want to try and keep this thread as clutter free as possible. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Thats an enormous 30% hatched tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Chicago went from not having a high risk since May 2004 to having two in the same year. Pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Skies clearing here much earlier than expected. Might be the reason for the big jump in area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Water vapor satellite shows a large wedge of dry air across Indiana and northwest ohio. Not very encouraging to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Just look at the population cores in the high and moderate risk areas. Some 38 million people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 monster size hatch area for tor's 63/61 .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Lot of clearing visible now that dawn has broken across the entire risk area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 IWX going all in now and rightly so.http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=iwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Forbes with a 7 in IL and IN ... this was three hours ago though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 looks like the warm sector will see some sun and warm above model guidence...temps already warmer then models..not sure if this may lower dewpoints a tad though.. Per reply earlier in this thread the RAP has been running too cool in temps via observations. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Per reply earlier in this thread the RAP has been running too cool in temps via observations. Not good What do you mean by that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Just woke up, wow. Good call on expansion of High westward by Hoosier and RC. Yeah I'm probably just going to stay home or play around here to be sure my family and friends know what is going on. That's a good amount of sunshine already in northern MO/west central IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 A picture says a thousand words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 It may be warmer and more unstable than the models are projecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Sig tor up to 5 and supercell composite up to 20 at current hour per SPC nw of Alton IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 MD out: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2010NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0747 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN MO...SERN IA...AND WRN/CENTRALAND NRN ILCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELYVALID 171347Z - 171515ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENTSUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWD FROM CENTRAL/ERN IA INTONRN/CENTRAL MO BY MID-LATE MORNING WITH ACTIVITY THEN MOVING QUICKLYEWD INTO MUCH OF IL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BECOMEORGANIZED WITH THE POTENTIAL TO EVOLVE INTO LONG-LIVED DISCRETE TOSEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. THREATS FOR TORNADOES...HAIL AND DAMAGINGWINDS WITH THESE INITIAL STORMS SUGGEST A TORNADO WATCH MAY NEED TOBE ISSUED BY MID-LATE MORNING.DISCUSSION...MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CONVECTIVECLOUDS ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM SWRN-NERNMO INTO SERN IA NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. MEANWHILE...RADAR IMAGERYSHOWED A NARROW BAND OF REFLECTIVITY EXTENDING FROM SWRN IA INTONWRN MO /INVOF KANSAS CITY MO/...WITH THIS LIKELY INDICATING THEPRESENCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND STRONG DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENTADVANCING EWD INTO THIS REGION. STORMS...MAINLY ELEVATED...AREONGOING OVER CENTRAL/ERN IA ALONG AND N OF A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROMSWRN-NERN IA.THE DEGREE OF FORCING ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREACOMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALREADY PRESENTOVER MO/IL /E.G. 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 50 KT/ IS EXPECTED TOSUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT SWD FROM CENTRAL/ERN IA INTO NRN/CENTRAL MOAS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKINGTHE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...PETERS/CORFIDI.. 11/17/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Latest HRRR hot off the press. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Almost 70 here already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Latest HRRR hot off the press. a string of sups from waukegan to stl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Flat out huge area of 30% hatched tornado risk... not sure there has ever been that many people covered under such a high risk before, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 8 AM CST obs in NE IL: ILZ005-006-012>014-019>023-171500- NORTHEAST ILLINOIS CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS CHICAGO-OHARE CLOUDY 65 61 87 S21G30 29.40F CHICAGO-MIDWAY CLOUDY 65 61 87 S21G31 29.42F AURORA CLOUDY 64 61 90 S18G24 29.41F LANSING* CLOUDY 63 60 88 S25G33 29.46F WAUKEGAN CLOUDY 61 60 97 S16 29.38F DUPAGE AIRPORT CLOUDY 64 61 90 S21G32 29.40F WHEELING CLOUDY 64 60 87 S17G30 29.41F NORTHERLY ISL N/A 64 60 87 S15 N/A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 first vis sat imagery of the morning shows a lot of clearing in central IL: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 CU field is E. MO is agitated and ready to go before too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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