hm8 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 HRRR at the end of its run... Sent from my HTCONE using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 I saw a few stars in the sky here in Northern Indiana this morning before this warm frontal precip started. That is not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 HRRR and other hires models clearly showing enhanced localized 0-1km helicity (we're talking 600-700+ m2/s2) along the main squall line, furthern indicating an elevated tornado potential. Timing would appear to be 12-1pm CST for Chicago, approximately 2pm CST/3pm EST for the IL/IN border further south and Indianapolis about an hour later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 66/63 at Pontiac per latest obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Wonder how many 18Z balloons get set up today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 HRRR and other hires models clearly showing enhanced localized 0-1km helicity (we're talking 600-700+ m2/s2) along the main squall line, furthern indicating an elevated tornado potential. Timing would appear to be 12-1pm CST for Chicago, approximately 2pm CST/3pm EST for the IL/IN border further south and Indianapolis about an hour later. Yeah, this isn't good: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Wonder how many 18Z balloons get set up today? I know Valpo will be taking at least two soundings today. Hopefully someone can post a link to them here for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 90+ kt H5 jet max moving through southern KS/OK Panhandle and 500-600 m2/s2 ESRH spreading into Central IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 I saw a few stars in the sky here in Northern Indiana this morning before this warm frontal precip started. That is not good We are getting a lot of breaks here now in the last half hour as well. Sitting at 57/55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Pretty heavy rain here tonight. Quite a bit of street flooding, wonder what this will do as far as setting up any boundaries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Most backed 10m winds appear to be from extreme eastern IL into central IN where the direction is SSE to even SE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 I think the warm sector is going to see sunshine... and lots of it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Chase cancelled. Too dangerous. Stay safe everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somethingfunny Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Chase cancelled. Too dangerous. Stay safe everyone! This seems more like one of those where you position yourself for an intercept. Storm motion's way too fast to "chase" per se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Chase cancelled. Too dangerous. Stay safe everyone! Signature relevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Chase cancelled. Too dangerous. Stay safe everyone! You may not even need to leave campus to be in a tornado warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 This seems more like one of those where you position yourself for an intercept. Storm motion's way too fast to "chase" per se. Well that was already understood, but yeah. Now we're going to just sit here and watch. Signature relevant. Indeed. You may not even need to leave campus to be in a tornado warning Yeah, we're going to keep the Wx Center fully staffed, launch a few balloons, and make sure campus is aware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 It's been really windy down here. Springfield (MO) gusted to 51 mph last hour. I don't think the temp fell below 70 last night. Luckily the SW winds ahead of the front have shunted most of the moisture off to the east and due to that capping around 850mb, it doesn't look like anything will form before the front pushes through. 0-1 km, EHI is about a 5 over me now and that's building NE towards Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 WGN is still stressing the post-frontal wind potential more than the severe weather threat. The on-air guy at least mentioned tornadoes, but said something like "mostly in Northern Indiana." Edit: Now they're beating the drum on the High Risk. Took a minute though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 heavy morning cell pushing through but the warm sector looks very clutter free...going to get caught up on this thread now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 heavy morning cell pushing through but the warm sector looks very clutter free...going to get caught up on this thread now Skies are pretty clear here this morning, a little surprised by that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 We are getting a lot of breaks here now in the last half hour as well. Sitting at 57/55 Sky is clear overhead here right now as the sun rises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 A stiff wind here just SW of Fort Wayne. Low cloud-deck flying by, but skies otherwise breaking out. Can tell the LCLs are very low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Skies are pretty clear here this morning, a little surprised by that. sun and maybe a decent amount looks like it's gonna happen...very warm out right now. Going to open the windows and air the apartment out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Rain just finished. Now its cloudy and drizzle. Here in Chicago. Maybe the rain and clouds will cool down the area? might want to pump the brakes...we just broke fully into an uncluttered warm sector...temps are only going to rise. and for the record, where in Chicago are you again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CHI_Weather Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 might want to pump the brakes...we just broke fully into an uncluttered warm sector...temps are only going to rise. and for the record, where in Chicago are you again? Oak Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Sky is clear overhead here right now as the sun rises. Clouded back over fast here, even spritzing a bit a of rain currently. The cloud deck at 4000' is just screaming Northeastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Clouded back over fast here, even spritzing a bit a of rain currently. The cloud deck at 4000' is just screaming Northeastward. Yep, looks like a burst of rain is moving in fast now from the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 What's so unusual/concerning about this setup is the very impressive thermodynamic profiles over the high risk area. Check out the morning sounding from ILX... The remnant elevated mixed layer from 600mb-800mb will help generate quite a bit of CAPE but it may also serve to prevent the storms from quickly going QLCS after initiation. This may lock in discrete storm type for a bit. Given the amount of shear in place with long and looping hodographs the fact the 12z ILX sounding has >1000 j/kg of CAPE is really impressive. BUFKIT soundings also show a lot of 0-3km CAPE today as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 looks like the warm sector will see some sun and warm above model guidence...temps already warmer then models..not sure if this may lower dewpoints a tad though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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