Major Severe Weather Outbreak November 17

[hm8]

HRRR is showing some really strong post-frontal gusts, seemingly not convection-related

 

 

[Geos]

Might be looking at non-thunderstorm wind damage reports coming out of west central IL tomorrow.

[Thundersnow12]

If I had to pick a starting point it would be probably IKK just off the 1-57 ramp and see how CI evolves.

[nwburbschaser]

If I had to pick a starting point it would be probably IKK just off the 1-57 ramp and see how CI evolves.

 

Are you going to head out today?

 

edit: today

[cyclone77]

If storm speeds weren't 50-65mph I'd probably head down towards Indiana early tomorrow.  From a chasing standpoint this one is gonna be pretty tough.  Only time I can think of that I captured anything decent on a fast setup like this was 5/10/10, and after our first tor intercept we couldn't keep up with the parent storm.  May make a run at the semi-cold core play closer to the surface low closer to home, where storm speeds will be a bit slower.  Strong tornadoes won't be likely with that play however.

[Thundersnow12]

If storm speeds weren't 50-65mph I'd probably head down towards Indiana early tomorrow.  From a chasing standpoint this one is gonna be pretty tough.  Only time I can think of that I captured anything decent on a fast setup like this was 5/10/10, and after our first tor intercept we couldn't keep up with the parent storm.  May make a run at the semi-cold core play closer to the surface low closer to home, where storm speeds will be a bit slower.  Strong tornadoes won't be likely with that play however.

 

My thinking too. I will stay put most likely cause no way I'm leaving to go to Indiana and something comes at my town.

[Thundersnow12]

6z RAP continues to be too low with temps currently which could be playing a role in it's instability later on in the run, lots of 60/61 obs currently in northern IL where the RAP still has mid to upper 50's at best.

[Geos]

Looks like Skillings call for upper 60s will hold true.

 

7z temp plot for NE IL.

 

[Hoosier]

6z RAP continues to be too low with temps currently which could be playing a role in it's instability later on in the run, lots of 60/61 obs currently in northern IL where the RAP still has mid to upper 50's at best.

 

It's gonna be interesting to see where temps are in the morning.  Would think they would be fairly steady if not rise slightly.  Between that and the timing of convection from multiple models, I think the high risk could be expanded a bit northwest if anything.

[Thundersnow12]

It's gonna be interesting to see where temps are in the morning.  Would think they would be fairly steady if not rise slightly.  Between that and the timing of convection from multiple models, I think the high risk could be expanded a bit northwest if anything.

 

Yep, currently 66/67 readings in southern IL where that model only has low 60's.

[Stebo]

It's gonna be interesting to see where temps are in the morning.  Would think they would be fairly steady if not rise slightly.  Between that and the timing of convection from multiple models, I think the high risk could be expanded a bit northwest if anything.

With the magnitude of WAA and moisture transport into this region I would expect temps to rise some overnight and the dew points to continue upward throughout the night.

[Jim Marusak]

from a model-standpoint, I know someone was referring to NFL game venues in potential danger. from the timing of the games, I would say if the NFL is monitoring any place, Soldier Field would be number 1 in the concern and most likely for delays and needing for potential emergency shelter.

 

Cincy 2nd, but if the timing is close to what the models are projecting, the game should hopefully be over before the line gets there, but they will want the stadium parking lots cleared asap as a precaution.

 

Buffalo and Pittsburgh should have their games over in plenty of time, as well as Toronto for the CFL eastern Final.

[RCNYILWX]

It's gonna be interesting to see where temps are in the morning.  Would think they would be fairly steady if not rise slightly.  Between that and the timing of convection from multiple models, I think the high risk could be expanded a bit northwest if anything.

Agreed on the High being expanded a bit northwest, now that it's out, due to what many of the hi-res models have been showing and also the trends for higher temperatures and dewpoints farther north. Earlier this fall, we did a training simulation on the November 10, 2002 tornadoes in the IWX CWA and a takeaway I had from that event is that in these strong advective situations, the threat is liable to end up farther north or northwest.

[stormtrackertf]

Per SPC website, over 6 million people in the high risk and over 36 million in the moderate risk.

Not gonna see much higher than that unless you have a high/moderate risk over NYC metro.

[Roger Smith]

Acceleration of the front after 21z will lead to more widespread wind damage in IN, OH, s MI and s ON, also w NY near Lake Erie. Buffalo could see wind gusts to 70 mph and a Lake Erie seiche effect. Even locations such as Ottawa ON could see wind damage late overnight as the gradient tightens. My guess for tornadic storms would be close to IN-IL border and into w IN.

[CHI_Weather]

It looks like SE IL and W IN will bear the worst. Chicago? Not sure, maybe a hit or miss. Just in case I will be using my basement for weather related matters for the first time. Stay safe folks.

[yoda]

CLE morning AFD

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
318 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A DOUBLED BARRELED LOW PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO WESTERN
KANSAS WILL MOVE TO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES INTO
WEST CENTRAL QUEBEC BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY AND
THEN OFF THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LONG ANTICIPATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DAY HAS ARRIVED. TWO LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST ARE BEGINNING TO MERGE AND
INTENSIFY THIS MORNING.

SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS WILL
BE THE BEGINNING OF THE STRENGTHENING WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SO...WILL GO AHEAD AND
ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BUT WILL BE FOR MAINLY
LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT SINCE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL TAKE
PLACE AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

60 TO 70 KNOT SPEED MAXIMUM AT 850 MB WILL POSE A PROBLEM AS
CONVECTION DEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
STRONGER WINDS COULD BE FORCED TO THE SURFACE IN THE THUNDERSTORMS
AND PRODUCE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE. LATEST STORM PREDICTION CENTER
OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH RISK JUST WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE THE STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS...LATEST MODEL SOUNDING HODOGRAPHS INDICATE SOME FAIRLY HIGH
LEVELS OF HELICITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS FROM CLEVELAND TO AKRON
CANTON WEST. I CANT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP THAT THEY COULD BEGIN TO ROTATE RATHER QUICKLY AND
PRODUCE TORNADOES. TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS ARE PROGGED TO BE
AT OR BELOW THE 5 DEGREE THRESHOLD AND THIS IS ONE KEY INGREDIENT
FOR TORNADOES TO DEVELOP.

LOOKING AT THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...JUST WEST OF THE AREA...THIS MOISTURE PLUME DIMINISHES AND
THIS IS RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
WITH THIS IN MIND...I AM CONCERNED THAT WE WILL SEE A LOT MORE SUN
THAN I CURRENTLY HAVE IN THE FORECAST. IF THIS IS THE CASE...THEN
CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES COULD BE TOO LOW AND THEREFORE WILL
SEE EVEN GREATER INSTABILITY DEVELOP. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL NOT BE OVER TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
AND POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND THIS IS WHEN WE HAVE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
WIND DAMAGE. ONE FACTOR IS WE WILL BE LOSING THE DAY TIME HEATING
AND THIS MAY HELP TO STABILIZE THINGS A BIT.

[Chicago Storm]

LOT...

 

ATTENTION TURNS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS
THE ABOVE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION COMMENCES. BOTH DYNAMIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC ASPECTS OF THE SYSTEM ARE IMPRESSIVE AND WILL COME
TOGETHER TO PRODUCE AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.
THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE
AS THE SYSTEM WORKS THROUGH INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE WESTERN
UPPER JET WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND NOSE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
JET WILL ALSO COUPLE WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL JET ALREADY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. IN ADDITION...A 85-90 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
WILL NOSE IN UNDERNEATH THE UPPER JET DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES AND THE DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 55-60 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BY MIDDAY...WITH AN INCREASE TO NEAR 70 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 40 KT.
UNSEASONABLY STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S WITH CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH VALUES OF LOW LEVEL CAPE WITH 150 TO EVEN 200
J/KG IN THE LOWEST 3 KM. ALL OF THIS RESULTS IN IMPRESSIVE VALUES
FOR VARIOUS SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS. BASED ON ALL OF THIS EXPECT
THAT STORMS WILL INITIATE BY LATE MORNING OVER OR JUST SOUTHWEST/WEST OF
THE SOUTHWEST CWA AS THE ABOVE SYNOPTIC FEATURES ADVANCE NORTHEAST.
COVERAGE OF STORMS LOOKS TO TAKE OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
COUPLING OF THE MID/UPPER JETS MAXIMIZES AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE AS THIS OCCURS
AS WELL. THE RATE AT WHICH COVERAGE INCREASES IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...AT LEAST THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH IT POSSIBLE THAT A FEW
STORMS DEVELOP INITIALLY WITH A MORE RAPID INCREASE HOLDING OFF
UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF BETTER FORCING. THE MYRIAD
OF AVAILABLE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE RUNS THE GAMUT OF COVERAGE
SCENARIOS. THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK LINES UP WELL WITH LOCAL
THINKING PLACING THE HIGHEST RISK FROM BASICALLY CHICAGO SOUTH TO
FORD COUNTY AND POINTS EAST. THIS AREA WILL LINE UP WELL WITH THE
BEST FORCING PARAMETERS AND TIMING OF INCREASING COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA TO THE WEST INCLUDING THE
ROCKFORD AREA IS IN A MODERATE RISK AND MAY BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. AS FAR AS THREATS...THE STRONG SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL POINT TO DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH AN
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION INTO A SQUALL LINE LATER TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY DISCRETE ACROSS THE CWA
WITH EVOLUTION INTO A PREDOMINATELY LINEAR STRUCTURE TAKING PLACE
OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE EASTERN CWA. GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...TORNADOES ARE A DEFINITE THREAT ALONG WITH
DAMAGING WINDS FOLLOWED BY LARGE HAIL. THE STRONG SHEAR AND
POTENTIAL FOR MAINTENANCE OF DISCRETE CELLS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONGER AND LONGER TRACKED TORNADOES SHOULD THEY OCCUR.

[Quincy]

Most of us probably know what a 30% hatched TOR means, but just to reiterate from IND:

 

"SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A 30 PERCENT HATCHED RISK FOR TORNADOES...MEANING THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN EF2 OR STRONGER TORNADO WITHIN 25 MILES OF ANY GIVEN POINT."

[KeenerWx]

Didn't notice this being posted earlier, so I thought I would throw it in here for reference. 

 

November tornadoes in the NWS Chicago WFO since 1950 (via information found at the bottom of this page http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lot&storyid=98139&source=0) 

 

Date                Time        County                                                           
11/13/1951       400 PM       LAKE [iN]           F2                                              
11/26/1951       617 PM       FORD                 F1                                             
11/12/1965       248 PM       DU PAGE          F2                                            
11/12/1965       345 PM       COOK                F2                                             
11/12/1965       205 PM       LA SALLE          F2                                               
11/12/1965       235 PM       GRUNDY           F2                                              
11/12/1965       300 PM       WILL                   F2                  
11/12/1965       453 PM       LAKE [iN]           F3                                              
11/11/1971      1100 PM      LIVINGSTON     F1                                             
11/10/1975            UNK      LAKE [iL]            F1                                              

11/09/1984        640 PM     WILL                   F0                                               

11/22/2010        304 PM     WINNEBAGO   EF2                 

8/12 were F/EF 2+ 

Almost all of them occurred within mid-afternoon/early evening hours (2-6 PM) 

[jhamps10]

These are the kind of events that frankly as a weather nut scare me. Living in Dallas/Ft Worth now I honestly had not been able to follow it develop, I thought we wasn't looking at much until I couldn't sleep and woke up and started seeing posts on social media from back home about a high risk. Frankly I'd be thrilled if this one busts badly, I just have that sick feeling in my gut that it won't though.

[Quincy]

Here's a rough attempt at a surface analysis map for 4 a.m. Regardless of a few details in the frontal analysis, it's pretty clear why this has the potential to be a particularly dangerous outbreak. The fact that there's a window in the warm sector for even more destabilization though the morning is only going to throw fuel onto the fire, meaning that the higher model CAPE values may verify:

[Indystorm]

Given that surface map and all the parameters are you expecting PDS watches later today?  And jhamps, good to hear from you.

[andyhb]

Given that surface map and all the parameters are you expecting PDS watches later today?  And jhamps, good to hear from you.

 

Given the high risk, certainly. This is actually the first time tornado probs have been over 15% this year (the June high risk was for 60% wind).

 

Also, we have 60s dewpoints nearly to Chicago already, which is big trouble (Pontiac, IL has a 61 degree dewpoint).

[Stebo]

RAP is still too low on temperatures currently, it is in the 60s in SW Lower MI and NW IN, RAP says it should still be in the mid to upper 50s. Blowing temperatures by as much as 5 degrees at this junction is huge.

[Quincy]

Given that surface map and all the parameters are you expecting PDS watches later today?  And jhamps, good to hear from you.

I think so. I almost can't put words to this setup anymore. Will just watch and see how it unfolds. Not sure if I'm lucky or unfortunate to be throwing myself right into it, but we'll hope for the former...

[Indystorm]

For the record...from Corfidi

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0249 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013   ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI   AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO MICHIGAN TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...   The NWS Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma is forecasting   the development of a few strong, long-track tornadoes over parts of   the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into Michigan today through   early tonight.   The areas most likely to experience this activity include:          Illinois          Indiana          Northern and Western Kentucky          Lower Michigan          Ohio          Southeast Wisconsin   Surrounding this greatest risk region, severe thunderstorms will   also be possible from parts of Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas,   Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee northeastward across much of the   Appalachians to the lower Great Lakes.   A potent jet stream disturbance with wind speeds in excess of 120   knots will sweep east across the central Plains today and across the   Ohio Valley and northern half of the Appalachians tonight. As this   occurs, a surface low now over the mid-Mississippi Valley will   rapidly intensify and accelerate northeastward, reaching northern   Michigan early tonight and western Quebec Monday morning.   East of the low, increasingly warm and humid air at the surface will   spread north across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, contributing to   very unstable conditions over a large part of the east central   United States. Coupled with daytime heating and ascent provided the   jet stream impulse, the environment will become very favorable for   severe thunderstorms --- especially along and ahead of fast-moving   cold front trailing southward from the low into the mid-Mississippi   and Ohio Valleys.   Given the degree of thermodynamic instability, and the strength and   character of the winds through the depth of the atmosphere, many of   the storms will become supercells. Some of these will be capable of   producing strong tornadoes --- in addition to large hail and swaths   of damaging surface winds.     The storms are expected to consolidate into one or two extensive   lines later today into tonight --- extending the threat for damaging   winds and isolated tornadoes eastward into the Appalachians by early   Monday.   State and local emergency managers are monitoring this potentially   very dangerous situation. Those in the threatened area are urged to   review severe weather safety rules and to listen to radio,   television, and NOAA Weather Radio for possible watches, warnings,   and statements later today.   ..Corfidi.. 11/17/2013

[CHI_Weather]

So how concern does Chicago have to be?

[LizardMafia]

IND..

 

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

THE TRIGGER HAS BEEN PULLED ON THE HIGH RISK WITH CENTRAL INDIANA
BEING UNDER THE GUN FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF
THE AREA IN A 30 PERCENT HATCHED RISK FOR TORNADOES...MEANING THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN EF2 OR STRONGER TORNADO WITHIN 25 MILES
OF ANY GIVEN POINT. THE SYSTEM IS EXTREMELY DYNAMIC WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT SWINGS OUT OF ITS CURRENT POSITION
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY 0Z. DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE AREA ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN
THE SOUTH WITH LOW 60S UPSTREAM. GUIDANCE HIGHS FOR THE DAY HAVE
COME BACK DOWN A BIT GIVEN CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR THE
ENTIRE DAY BUT STILL YIELDS HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S. THUS SURFACE BASED CAPES THE GFS ARE RUNNING IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE HUNDREDS FOR MIDDAY AND HIGHER IN THE NAM WITH MIXED
LAYER CAPES IN THE LOW HUNDREDS. WHILE THESE INSTABILITY NUMBERS ARE
NOT HIGH...THEY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT GIVEN SIGNIFICANT SHEAR WITH
LOW LEVEL...MID LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL JET MAXES GOING THROUGH LATER
TODAY. LONG CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 300-500
SHOW THE SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL AND TORNADO FORMATION.

ONE POSSIBLE WRENCH IN TODAY/S EVENT FOR THIS FORECAST AREA IS THE
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. A BIT OF CONCERN THAT THIS COULD LEAVE A
STABLE RAIN COOLED AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WITH A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA OR JUST SOUTH OF THERE THAT COULD IN EFFECT
INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THUS PREVENTING SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
SHOULD THIS OCCUR...GREAT POTENTIAL WILL STILL BE IN PLACE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS AND SPIN UP TORNADOES WITH THE SQUALL
LINE THAT SHOULD FORM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

THE RAPID REFRESH BRINGS THE DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE INTO THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND 19Z. THIS AGREES WITH SREF TIMING THAT
BRINGS THE HIGHEST OMEGA THROUGH THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA AROUND
21Z AND SWINGS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPWARD MOTION EAST OF THE
AREA BY 0Z AND STUCK WITH THIS TIMING FOR HIGHEST POPS.

ON NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND POTENTIAL...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRAVERSES THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THIS
COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG WINDS JUST AHEAD OF OR MORE LIKELY JUST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THINK THE STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS WILL STAY
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE
GREATEST PRESSURE CHANGES...HOWEVER...WIND ADVISORY STRENGTH GUST OF
50 MPH STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY AND THUS CONTINUED WITH
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AREA. THINK THE NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD FLIRT
WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA...BUT AT THIS POINT THINK THEY WILL
STAY IN HIGH END ADVISORY TERRITORY.

&&

[Quincy]

So how concern does Chicago have to be?

They should be on alert, but not in panic mode. The intense line that should develop and feature multiple tornadoes is expected to develop over central Illinois, placing Chicago on the northern end. That doesn't mean they're out of the woods, however I'd expect the most widespread dangerous weather to end up a bit south of there.