Hoosier Posted November 17, 2013 Author Share Posted November 17, 2013 personally, I am thinking if they go with the upgrade, I think we all know the area we'd go with, but they won't do the upgrade til the 13Z update, once they see the initial radar, satellite, and the 12Z raobs (meaning the 13z update comes at like 1315-1330). but they won't wait until 1630z, given the area where we're thinking it'll happen, with the metros involved. I sorta wonder if they're more likely to pull the trigger on a high risk at 6z for this type of system rather than a springtime one. A setup with such favorable dynamics and respectable if not good mid level lapse rates doesn't need a ton of surface heating. I'm reminded of 10/26/10 when they went high risk at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 00z SPC-WRF decides to get things really rolling by 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 A high risk would be 60% for wind or 30% for tor if I remember correctly. Yep thats right http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/SPC_probotlk_info.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Tonight's models keep the trend of looking meaner for tomorrow. HRRR lights up cells from WI to MO by 17z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 I find it surprising there's so many differences in the models even at this juncture. I think veer-back-veer is a potential issue for discrete supercells but regardless the damaging wind and embedded tornado threat is sky high tomorrow. They might go high for wind, probably not for tornadoes yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2013 Author Share Posted November 17, 2013 These ridiculous storm motions suggests there is potential for some long track tornadoes especially with any discrete or semi-discrete activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Uh oh.. Wow, by 9am now! My morning plans might have to be re thought out if super cells are in the area. Thanks for posting these maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Uh oh.. Wow, by 9am now! My morning plans might have to be re thought out if super cells are in the area. Thanks for posting these maps. That's 15:00 army time EST, so 2pm CST. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 That's 15:00 army time EST, so 2pm CST. Sent from my SCH-I535 Ok, thanks, I was thinking 15z. Maybe I can get done with things by then. The warmth and dewpoints are definitely present tonight. 58/56 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 NSSL WRF builds most unstable cape to over 1500j/kg over much of western Illinois by 16z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 I sorta wonder if they're more likely to pull the trigger on a high risk at 6z for this type of system rather than a springtime one. A setup with such favorable dynamics and respectable if not good mid level lapse rates doesn't need a ton of surface heating. I'm reminded of 10/26/10 when they went high risk at 6z. I think they will go high at 6z, it will be for wind, the tornado through good will probably not be in the high category initially, though could end up there by the 1300z outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Getting more concerned about a dmg. wind threat further east into OH and PA into the overnight too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 The severe weather climatology for today from the SPC really sums up how rare this type of event would be should it pan out: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2013 Author Share Posted November 17, 2013 60+ dewpoints have made it into southern Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Very interested to see the D1 and what the SPC says about the 00z guidance/potential veer back veer issues... Here's you hourly dose of HRRR: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 I was in Rolling Prairie IN for a meeting Sat. morning. Still saw some snow on northward facing slopes from the recent LES event. Seems incredulous to think that area will most probably be under a high risk for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Very interested to see the D1 and what the SPC says about the 00z guidance/potential veer back veer issues... Here's you hourly dose of HRRR: Very nice! Looks like a line of low topped supercells! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Getting more concerned about a dmg. wind threat further east into OH and PA into the overnight too. Yeah I would agree, the interesting thing is the instability doesn't drop off too quickly from 21z and you won't need much to bring down the winds that are expected to be just off the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2013 Author Share Posted November 17, 2013 FWIW, the only High Risk this year (June 12) was in some of the same areas that could possibly have one Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 not sure if you need another short-term model system in here. but for this weekend outbreak, John Wetter from Hopkins HS moved his hop-wrf domain over into the risk area for all 4 members of his composite. I think he runs it for the comp-sci and earth science classes over in Hopkins MN. http://hopwrf.info/index.php details on what each of the 4 members in this suite are on the page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 What Cyclone was getting at earlier. GFS surface winds as the L begins to bomb out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 60+ dewpoints have made it into southern Illinois. Dew at my wx station has been at 57 for an hour but it's creeping back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Arrival time and everything else coming together is very unsettling to say the least for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 03z HRRR shows a few blotches of 2000j/kg surface-based cape in the warm sector of northern IL around 18z. That would be damn impressive for mid November this far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 high risk! E IL/IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Overnight situation may be trying to develop across Northern AR, already a strong mid-level meso on the cell in Marion/Baxter Co. Not very good low-level coverage, may see LZK pull the trigger on a TOR (though cells may not be completely surface based). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 FWIW, the only High Risk this year (June 12) was in some of the same areas that could possibly have one Sunday. Wow, I actually thought that may have been an update for the day 1 outlook for today at first, that is pretty strange. Also strange that that area was the only one in a high risk this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Wow, much of Indiana High risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 As far as veer-back-veer profiles go, this isn't exactly a stellar example. Minor, at best. Not sure it really cuts the tor threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 SPC headline says it all... ...TORNADO OUTBREAK WITH MULTIPLE SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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