Gilbertfly Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 21Z SREF still features a 60 for sigtor in LOT at 18Z tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Uh oh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Uh oh.. 18 and 19z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2013 Author Share Posted November 17, 2013 Has anyone noticed a bit of a veer-back-veer issue on some models/soundings in some areas tomorrow? Not sure how big a deal it is but maybe something to keep in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 18 and 19z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Has anyone noticed a bit of a veer-back-veer issue on some models/soundings in some areas tomorrow? Not sure how big a deal it is but maybe something to keep in mind. Yeah it's a bit subtle but on some fcst soundings you'll get a little backing up around 700/750mb it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Has anyone noticed a bit of a veer-back-veer issue on some models/soundings in some areas tomorrow? Not sure how big a deal it is but maybe something to keep in mind. Yeah noticed that as well. Don't think it will be too much of an issue though due to the length of the hodo curve. In most of the soundings I peeked at the hodo doesn't really kink back in on itself due to the very strong mid-upper level winds. Keeps it nice and stretched out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 per 00z NAM and 01z RUC , the heavy populated areas of NE IL..SE WI up to perhaps MKE just SE of the surface low look dangerous the recent NW burb tornadic express may be in play again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 per 00z NAM and 01z RUC , the heavy populated areas of NE IL..SE WI up to perhaps MKE just SE of the surface low look dangerous the NW burb tornadic express may be in play again The RAP you mention shows the instability axis still a bit to the west of Chicago at 19z. Looks like timing is working out in the worst possible way for northeast Illinois. Scary situation indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Don't have the energy to do another full blog post, so I'll throw the graphic here. I think there will be two tornado threats. The more significant one across IL and IN (perhaps expanding a bit into MI and OH), then a secondary threat across western Tennessee and surrounding areas. This lines up with some past analogs and the fact that the models are trending toward a more robust tornado potential there. It will obviously come down to the wire with real-time analysis, radar watching and that sort of thing, but I think the general picture is fairly clear. Developing low across IA swings to WI. Warm front nudges north and could be the focus point for a few tornadoes. A potentially significant squall line forms over IL late tomorrow morning and moves eastward, bringing another tornado threat. That tornado threat may end up being the most dramatic across eastern IL and the northwest half of IN. There, I'm still expecting numerous tornadoes and a few could be EF-2 or stronger. Chicago is right on the fringe of that area... I'm not sure the downstream air-mass will allow for widespread tornadoes into OH, although I could see some particularly damaging straight-line wind gusts. The threat extends into W PA and W NY, but there I'd think reports are limited to marginally severe winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMwHJjNQO6E#t=119 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMwHJjNQO6E#t=119 I don't even know where to begin with that...the best was probably the announcement about the new branch of NOAA/NWS, "Severe Prediction Center." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 maybe I should go into tv. because despite my looks, I'd definitely know what I was talking about compared to him. but one side note to all the TV graphics and such. how come they always cut things off, like severe risks, precipitation, winds, etc, at the canadian border? I know they may not have viewers necessarily over there, but to be bluntly honest, systems like this just don't stop at the borders and ask for clearance from the border guards (as much as our friends in southern Ontario might like that to happen later on tomorrow evening). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Recent runs of the HRRR have been kicking things off by 15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 but the bigger question now is, when the new d1 outlook comes out at 06z, do we stay at moderate risk? go to high right away? or wait until the 13z update when the 12z soundings are in and then pinpoint the high risk? and if the high risk comes out, where do you put it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 but the bigger question now is, when the new d1 outlook comes out at 06z, do we stay at moderate risk? go to high right away? or wait until the 13z update when the 12z soundings are in and then pinpoint the high risk? and if the high risk comes out, where do you put it? Or do we go high risk at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2013 Author Share Posted November 17, 2013 Here's an amazing stat for Michigan. There have only been 6 documented November tornadoes in the period from 1950-2012. There's some chance the 63 year total could be reached or surpassed in one day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Or do we go high risk at all one of the options is staying at moderate.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2013 Author Share Posted November 17, 2013 Or do we go high risk at all This has potential to evolve into a heckuva damaging wind event especially after things become more linear. If there's not a high for tornadoes then there might be for wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 If they go high, I don't think it's with 6z, but we'll see... Edit: If they go HIGH for TOR, I would have to say eastern IL and western/NW Indiana. Here given the best overlap of very high shear and at least modest CAPE. Also, you have to think with the jet diving in, nose first into IL, that may favor them... I'm going to check out things bright and early. All things considered, I think I'm going to wind up hanging tight somewhere in the northern half of Indiana. Perhaps NE IL. Possible action with the warm front/warm sector and then prime up for the squall. Subject to change though. Going to try to get some sleep soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Like I mentioned in the Lakes forum last night, if I were a gambling man I'd go with a high upgrade with the 1630z update package, with the main focus on widespread damaging wind. I'm guessing about the northern half of IN, northwest OH, and south-central/southwest MI get upgraded. If it came out at midnight I wouldn't be shocked, but I believe they'll wait until at least 13/1630z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 0z 1.3KM NAM Fire WX Nest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 GFS really bombs the storm out- 979mb over MI by 00z, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 personally, I am thinking if they go with the upgrade, I think we all know the area we'd go with, but they won't do the upgrade til the 13Z update, once they see the initial radar, satellite, and the 12Z raobs (meaning the 13z update comes at like 1315-1330). but they won't wait until 1630z, given the area where we're thinking it'll happen, with the metros involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 GFS is now stronger with the Sfc low than even the 4km NAM and the HRRR. Gets all the way down to 978-979mb by tomorrow evening. Looks like one heck of a damaging wind threat with 850mb winds at 70-80 knots in IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 0z 1.3KM NAM Fire WX Nest... really?....right over soldiers field? oiy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 GFS is now stronger with the Sfc low than even the 4km NAM and the HRRR. Gets all the way down to 978-979mb by tomorrow evening. Looks like one heck of a damaging wind threat with 850mb winds at 70-80 knots in IN I think if a high risk is issued, it would include far northeastern IL, most of Indiana, and the western half of Ohio. The damaging wind threat is through the roof... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 I never thought I'd see a WEYI forecast on here. Of all the places to go for weather, NBC25 doesn't even make the list. Their former met they had that was let go a couple years back at least knew something about weather. But that's how it goes in broadcasting. Personally, I think there is strong potential for severe. It might not happen, that would be Michigan weather all the way, but the flip to that same coin is it just could happen, and it wouldn't be the first time. I wouldn't give any reasons for the already complacent public to brush it off. Just saying. Severe prediction center... LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 A high risk would be 60% for wind or 30% for tor if I remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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