Quincy Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 You can't chase tornadic supercells moving at 60kts.It's more along the lines of intercepting...so many people on Twitter saying it's a waste to be out here, but I violently disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 yep. a fairly strong upper disturbance moving into the warm sector from the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 You can't chase tornadic supercells moving at 60kts. Isn't that the same speed as last years Henryville tornado? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Isn't that the same speed as last years Henryville tornado? Essentially. I think most of the warnings for that storm had 65-70 mph as the storm motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2013 Author Share Posted November 16, 2013 re: strong November tornadoes, here's a state by state breakdown courtesy of ustornadoes.com http://www.ustornadoes.com/2012/11/15/significant-november-tornadoes-in-the-united-states/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 It's more along the lines of intercepting...so many people on Twitter saying it's a waste to be out here, but I violently disagree. Intercepting would be the correct term. You find a spot about an hour ahead of the storms and let them hit. Still, I'm already anticipating one or two chasers somehow almost getting killed tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 18z 1.3KM NAM Fire Wx Nest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 18z 1.3KM NAM Fire Wx Nest... Wow. Those northern ones would go right into the metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 re: strong November tornadoes, here's a state by state breakdown courtesy of ustornadoes.com http://www.ustornadoes.com/2012/11/15/significant-november-tornadoes-in-the-united-states/ great info thanks for posting that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 For the Ontario posters here...looks more and more likely with each model run that a sustained fast moving squall line will push into SW ON tomorrow evening and continue eastward from there. Tornado threat will likely be very low here given the lack of instability, but there is always the chance for QLCS type tor's with these squall lines well into the overnight. Extreme shear and mid/upper level winds will promote an enhanced risk of damaging winds for areas of SW/SC ON. Many hi-res solutions have a well organized squall line pushing through SW ON and SC ON including the GTA. Should be interesting to watch this event unfold. Thanks for the info. Hard to believe this is Nov., and I was dealing with LES earlier in the week. Felt warm out today. Kept dropping layers to try and keep cool enough as I am in full fall cleanup mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Wow. Those northern ones would go right into the metro area You can even see the maturing process of the storms, with helicities becoming more intense with eastward movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 For the Ontario posters here...looks more and more likely with each model run that a sustained fast moving squall line will push into SW ON tomorrow evening and continue eastward from there. Tornado threat will likely be very low here given the lack of instability, but there is always the chance for QLCS type tor's with these squall lines well into the overnight. Extreme shear and mid/upper level winds will promote an enhanced risk of damaging winds for areas of SW/SC ON. Many hi-res solutions have a well organized squall line pushing through SW ON and SC ON including the GTA. Should be interesting to watch this event unfold. have to admit, I wish I had access to the road sensors across southwestern and southern Ontario tomorrow evening. probably some good gusts going to be recorded on them, especially the sensors near the top of the Burlington and St Catherines Skyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 IWX is mentioning tornadoes in their afternoon zone forecasts... As is LOT... SUNDAY VERY WINDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. THEN TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S BY EVENING. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 FWIW... The 22z RAP has main initiation around 13z in MO, and quickly expanding into IA/IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 NCEP servers working terrible today... I can't open the models on their site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 NCEP servers working terrible today... I can't open the models on their site. Me either. I was wondering if that was just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 In a month with exactly 4 svr wx reports to date (2 wind, 2 TOR) , it looks like that total will rise significantly by 06z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Intercepting would be the correct term. You find a spot about an hour ahead of the storms and let them hit. Still, I'm already anticipating one or two chasers somehow almost getting killed tomorrow. Haven't been able to look at the 18z 1.3km nam fire nest yet. But looking at the 12z one I think I counted 7 cells in the line that were semi discrete with inflow notches on them. Then looking at the hourly max updraft helicity values being so strong lasting almost two counties long, and then continuing into the next hourly set of maps while in close proximity of each other...... nuf said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 You can't chase tornadic supercells moving at 60kts. It's more along the lines of intercepting...so many people on Twitter saying it's a waste to be out here, but I violently disagree. We're going to give it a shot. Meeting at 6 a.m. for one more discussion. We all understand that intercepting is the right word though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 We're going to give it a shot. Meeting at 6 a.m. for one more discussion. We all understand that intercepting is the right word though. Make sure someone is assigned to cover your 6, and someone else the overhead and nothing else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weunice Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Couple of SVR's in Kansas starting things out tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 18z fire nest: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Even though the timing may yet to be fully resolved the scenario less than 24 hours out is now very worrisome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 18z fire nest: WOW Very Impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Latest RAP showing STP of 7-8 right around Starved Rock State Park in IL at 15z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Will be interested in the HRRR once it comes more into range. So far through 13z, nothing doing. However, CIN is beginning to erode and SBCAPEs are over 1800 J/kg over MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Will be interested in the HRRR once it comes more into range. So far through 13z, nothing doing. However, CIN is beginning to erode and SBCAPEs are over 1800 J/kg over MO. HRRR blew chunks with the last system that rolled through here. Of course, that was a different animal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Unbelievable model runs this afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 HRRR blew chunks with the last system that rolled through here. Of course, that was a different animal. It's far from perfect. I take it with a grain of salt, but I'm interested to see what general idea it shows for timing/placement. Day 1 SLGT risk extended SE down to W KY with two small areas of 5% TOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 KORD RAP BUFKIT forecast sounding for 17Z 17 November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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