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Major Severe Weather Outbreak November 17


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It's more along the lines of intercepting...so many people on Twitter saying it's a waste to be out here, but I violently disagree.

 

Intercepting would be the correct term. You find a spot about an hour ahead of the storms and let them hit. Still, I'm already anticipating one or two chasers somehow almost getting killed tomorrow. 

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For the Ontario posters here...looks more and more likely with each model run that a sustained fast moving squall line will push into SW ON tomorrow evening and continue eastward from there. Tornado threat will likely be very low here given the lack of instability, but there is always the chance for QLCS type tor's with these squall lines well into the overnight. Extreme shear and mid/upper level winds will promote an enhanced risk of damaging winds for areas of SW/SC ON. Many hi-res solutions have a well organized squall line pushing through SW ON and SC ON including the GTA. Should be interesting to watch this event unfold.

Thanks for the info.   Hard to believe this is Nov., and I was dealing with LES earlier in the week.   Felt warm out today.   Kept dropping layers to try and keep cool enough as I am in full fall cleanup mode.

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For the Ontario posters here...looks more and more likely with each model run that a sustained fast moving squall line will push into SW ON tomorrow evening and continue eastward from there. Tornado threat will likely be very low here given the lack of instability, but there is always the chance for QLCS type tor's with these squall lines well into the overnight. Extreme shear and mid/upper level winds will promote an enhanced risk of damaging winds for areas of SW/SC ON. Many hi-res solutions have a well organized squall line pushing through SW ON and SC ON including the GTA. Should be interesting to watch this event unfold.

 

have to admit, I wish I had access to the road sensors across southwestern and southern Ontario tomorrow evening. probably some good gusts going to be recorded on them, especially the sensors near the top of the Burlington and St Catherines Skyways.

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IWX is mentioning tornadoes in their afternoon zone forecasts...

As is LOT...

 

SUNDAY

VERY WINDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY

IN THE MORNING...THEN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE

LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE

SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO IN THE LATE

MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. THEN

TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S BY EVENING. SOUTH WINDS

15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING

BECOMING SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP

TO 45 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF

PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT. 

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Intercepting would be the correct term. You find a spot about an hour ahead of the storms and let them hit. Still, I'm already anticipating one or two chasers somehow almost getting killed tomorrow. 

 

Haven't been able to look at the 18z 1.3km nam fire nest yet.  But looking at the 12z one I think I counted 7 cells in the line that were semi discrete with inflow notches on them.  Then looking at the hourly max updraft helicity values being so strong lasting almost two counties long, and then continuing  into the next hourly set of maps while in close proximity of each other...... nuf said

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You can't chase tornadic supercells moving at 60kts.

 

 

It's more along the lines of intercepting...so many people on Twitter saying it's a waste to be out here, but I violently disagree.

 

We're going to give it a shot.  Meeting at 6 a.m. for one more discussion.

 

We all understand that intercepting is the right word though.

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Will be interested in the HRRR once it comes more into range. So far through 13z, nothing doing. However, CIN is beginning to erode and SBCAPEs are over 1800 J/kg over MO.

 

HRRR blew chunks with the last system that rolled through here. Of course, that was a different animal.

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HRRR blew chunks with the last system that rolled through here. Of course, that was a different animal.

It's far from perfect. I take it with a grain of salt, but I'm interested to see what general idea it shows for timing/placement.

 

Day 1 SLGT risk extended SE down to W KY with two small areas of 5% TOR. 

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