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November weather dicsussion


ORH_wxman

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Woodford, VT FTW! Know that spot well as I will sometimes take a weenie drive up there during the winter if I'm up for something a little more ambitious than Peru or Windsor here in the Berkshires.

 

I last took a drive up there in mid March and there was zilch in Bennington, but by the time I reached the Big Pond area, there was a 2'+ glacier. Big upslope spot that cashes in on both easterly and westerly flows. They had 27" in the 12/26-27/12 event while Bennington had 3". I'd say Woodford averages 140-150" per year.

It's an intriguing area to live considering the proximity to DDH. Maybe someday...lol.
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You guys have to realize it's a Pacific driven -PNA pattern so the risk always is milder...especially so early in the season. I see no reason to think otherwise unless there is a -NAO. That doesn't mean it can't get cold, it means that the cold shots have a risk of bouncing or lifting out rather quickly.

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yeah. i liked the cold shot as it was modeled yesterday. last 2 runs have backed off. 

 

 

We were briefly sniffing -15C at 850mb on a couple runs, but subsequent runs are struggling to get us to -10C, which is less impressive than the cold shot that just happened....it will still be pretty darn cold at least one night, but the overall trend has been to mute it a bit compared to a day or two ago.

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The GFS still looks optimal for radiationsl cooling with that strong HP, the Euro has the HP at our latitude and looks pretty meh overall.

yeah would likely be a couple of cold nights there with good rad cooling on those progs. cheap cold though as the air aloft is well on its way to warming back up by that point.

 

really even tonight will probably cool pretty well in spots. 

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