ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2013 Author Share Posted November 22, 2013 In the FWIW category... 21 of 51 Euro Ens members have >2" of snow for BDL with the Wednesday/Thursday event next week. Ensemble mean snow at BDL is just shy of 4". Yeah it shows how the mean can be a bit deceptive without that additional info...it shows something a bit too warm like the OP (maybe not quite as warm) in the mean...but rather than be tightly clustered of near 0-2" for BDL snow...there's a lot of spread. I think we know its going to take some luck to get it to pan out...but its far from being declared a no-go yet. Probably will need another 24-36 hours at the minimum to rule out a shovelable event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Yeah it shows how the mean can be a bit deceptive without that additional info...it shows something a bit too warm like the OP (maybe not quite as warm) in the mean...but rather than be tightly clustered of near 0-2" for BDL snow...there's a lot of spread. I think we know its going to take some luck to get it to pan out...but its far from being declared a no-go yet. Probably will need another 24-36 hours at the minimum to rule out a shovelable event. Yup. A lot of the ensembles with snow are actually fairly decent hits. That said there are far more "no snow" than "snow" solutions in the ensembles so that's all lost if you go strictly by the 3.8" mean snow on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Sweet thanks! I just looked all over the Ewall for those, too. Well everything from a bomb over ALB to passing over Bermuda seems to be in play still, lol. Definitely a couple members skewing the mean's westward extent of precip... I was curious how the mean could show 0.5"+ QPF all the way to PIT-ROC area. More interesting than I was thinking earliler. But, I'm not going to get too excited until Sunday's 12z run. I'll also be getting my ass frozen during Sunday's 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Yeah. 18 hours is about the limit Even better Dave. No need to set oneself up for disappointment. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 More interesting than I was thinking earliler. But, I'm not going to get too excited until Sunday's 12z run. I'll also be getting my ass frozen during Sunday's 12z run. I saw some small bodies of water skimmed with ice in your neighborhood today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 In the FWIW category... 21 of 51 Euro Ens members have >2" of snow for BDL with the Wednesday/Thursday event next week. Ensemble mean snow at BDL is just shy of 4". Good luck trying to put a forecast together out of that...Well folks it could be partly sunny, a plowable snowfall or a soaking rain, chance of flurries or a shower, winds could be out of the north, or maybe the south, likely turning colder the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 I saw some small bodies of water skimmed with ice in your neighborhood today. I had expected it to be warmer than it was today (38.6). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Good luck trying to put a forecast together out of that...Well folks it could be partly sunny, a plowable snowfall or a soaking rain, chance of flurries or a shower, winds could be out of the north, or maybe the south, likely turning colder the next day. I am in tomorrow PM and Sunday PM for weather. At least the weather story will be dominated by cold in the beginning. Since it may be a Wed or Thu event on Thanksgiving week it would be exceptionally high impact if it were to occur. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 I like using this site also: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/gefsplots/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Remember 2 days ago when the Euro had 50's to near 60 on Saturday. Lol. What has happened to that model? It's tough to getting too excited by it anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 The GEFS features are all over the place. Srfc low offshore. 850 low over SNE and 700 low not the most easy to see. You can tell there is a wee bit of spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 I wonder if there's a way to look at the entire period of record for multiple sites lumped into one first order climo station. The "Hartford Area" records go back to 1905 but include a bunch of different places... downtown Hartford, East Hartford, Windsor Locks, etc. That would be nice. I haven't looked at this new version yet, but I always wondered if there was a way to view records by ob location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 I had expected it to be warmer than it was today (38.6). U snowin yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Looks like Sunday could gust to 50 or so in the hills and coast with temps 20-25. A day we will all walk around with smiles , high fives, and chest bumps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Looks like Sunday could gust to 50 or so in the hills and coast with temps 20-25. A day we will all walk around with smiles , high fives, and chest bumpsChest bumps hurt with frozen nipples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Looks like Sunday could gust to 50 or so in the hills and coast with temps 20-25. A day we will all walk around with smiles , high fives, and chest bumps I didn't realize the winds were going to be that strong. I guess the fires will be blazing. I'll take it with several grains of salt, but I like reading my p/c. Tuesday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Wednesday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Looks like Sunday could gust to 50 or so in the hills and coast with temps 20-25. A day we will all walk around with smiles , high fives, and chest bumps I mean the positive versus the past few strong fronts is that greatest isallobaric forcing pushes right through SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 I mean the positive versus the past few strong fronts is that greatest isallobaric forcing pushes right through SNE. A little Bufkit ensemble for PVD showing Sunday's range of possibilities right now. NAM definitely more bearish at the moment, but kind of at the tail end of its range. Taking the average of all the momentum transfers still puts it in the 40-45 mph neighborhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 A little Bufkit ensemble for PVD showing Sunday's range of possibilities right now. NAM definitely more bearish at the moment, but kind of at the tail end of its range. Taking the average of all the momentum transfers still puts it in the 40-45 mph neighborhood. 11-21-2013 9-08-43 PM.png One of the more impressive Arctic invasions in years climo wise and wind wise. Absolute freight train jet engine howl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 One of the more impressive Arctic invasions in years climo wise and wind wise. Absolute freight train jet engine howl. I mean you must be loving it. Seriously though, if the NAEFS has a clue a one in 10 year event for this time of year is pretty awesome. Just goes to show you, enjoy it because all Novembers are not like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Folks, I haven't said this for awhile...it's coming!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 One of the more impressive Arctic invasions in years climo wise and wind wise. Absolute freight train jet engine howl. This is what you dream about buddy. Big cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 A little Bufkit ensemble for PVD showing Sunday's range of possibilities right now. NAM definitely more bearish at the moment, but kind of at the tail end of its range. Taking the average of all the momentum transfers still puts it in the 40-45 mph neighborhood. 11-21-2013 9-08-43 PM.png Cool how'd you generate that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 One of the more impressive Arctic invasions in years climo wise and wind wise. Absolute freight train jet engine howl. Impressive... But short duration and no snow make it awfully boring imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Impressive... But short duration and no snow make it awfully boring imo.To each his own and I wouldn't write off an impressive squall or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Folks, I haven't said this for awhile...it's coming!!! I really can't bring myself to giving you a weenie, Jerry. But I almost did. Having those strong winds and chilly temps that make you shiver just getting wood from the deck is one of the great things about winter. Of course, having it blowing freshly fallen snow is even better. On the serious side, I do find myself thinking of those without homes on such nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Impressive... But short duration and no snow make it awfully boring imo. Hopefully some flakes will fly Sunday. More interesting but OT is the event setting up in the SW to Southern plains. Arctic cold on the move. OKC today went from mid 60's to 40f in a cpl hours and W OK was gusting ova 50 in a few spots. Denver was 12 degrees at 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Cool how'd you generate that! http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=ijd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 To each his own and I wouldn't write off an impressive squall or two. I don't really see any support for squalls on the models now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Cool how'd you generate that! Iowa State, at it again. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/map.html It's a pretty cool way to view Bufkit as a meteogram online to compare both models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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