Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Any squalls on GFS for Sat nite /Sun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Actually verbatim there is virtually no SE ridge. However with such the cold in Canada near the prairies...you always need to watch out for those storms trying to run up the lakes.Hmm thats intriguing. Well like you said, we may at times create a psuedo blocking pattern with ridging trying to poke in across the north near Greenland, perhaps enhancing the cold shots. The prairies and northern canada near Yukon esp. have been seeing anomalous cold anomalous this month. Dawson, Yukon got down to -49F last night breaking the old record, and way below its avg night low of -14F. Thus far since October we have seen alot of storminess, maybe a good sign for winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The only thing I don't like is that it doesn't look like you can view the top 3 for each date anymore like previously. Not that its a big deal, but it was kind of nice to see what values were 2nd and 3rd place. (and of course this would also tell you what years were ties for a record if it wasn't exclusive) Okay, so internally we still have the option to see as many records (meaning values) for the date in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2013 Author Share Posted November 21, 2013 Any squalls on GFS for Sat nite /Sun? No, flurries...the support for squalls is pretty low now. The shortwave isn't as sharp/potent as yesterday's runs. The insability is still there, so probably some flurries, but that is abotu it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2013 Author Share Posted November 21, 2013 Okay, so internally we still have the option to see as many records (meaning values) for the date in question. Ok I lied, it has that option too, I just didn't know how to use it yet on the new options tabs. For Nov 24th at ORH sort by lowest max temps: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 So with the gradient look the weeklies are showing that would mean stormy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 the euro 2-m for sunday / monday and again thu-sat are impressively cold! just getting a chance to get a closer look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Thread ex is awesome. Can't wait to play around with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 18z GEFS are probably the most interesting for weenies, esp interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 the euro 2-m for sunday / monday and again thu-sat are impressively cold! just getting a chance to get a closer look. SNE coastal plain -18 to -20 F anomalies. -30 showing up for the turkey carving back across the Hudson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 SNE coastal plain -18 to -20 F anomalies. -30 showing up for the turkey carving back across the Hudson. the only thing that will ruin it is the 12am temp. 2-m at HYA at 18z is 29F! that's sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2013 Author Share Posted November 21, 2013 18z GEFS are probably the most interesting for weenies, esp interior. There's actually 3 or 4 members that bring accumulating snow right to BOS...even if it starts as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 18z GEFS are probably the most interesting for weenies, esp interior. Looks solid in the interior...but man there must be a bunch of warm/wet in there because the mean has decent QPF as far west as PIT in PA and then BUF-SYR in western NY. The mean rain/snow line though is like right through God's Country into SNH...but falls SE towards the end. For those with worries about dryness, the GFS ensembles look like widespread 1"+ QPF in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 There's actually 3 or 4 members that bring accumulating snow right to BOS...even if it starts as rain. I was just going to post this, just looked at the individuals, pretty interesting, and much colder than EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Thread ex is awesome. Can't wait to play around with it. I wonder if there's a way to look at the entire period of record for multiple sites lumped into one first order climo station. The "Hartford Area" records go back to 1905 but include a bunch of different places... downtown Hartford, East Hartford, Windsor Locks, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 12z Euro not quite as frigid as 00z for Sunday during the day... a few degrees warmer with 2M temps... but it also brings in the cold blast a bit earlier so we'd likely be sub-30F by 5z Sunday so as not to spoil the calendar day high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 There's actually 3 or 4 members that bring accumulating snow right to BOS...even if it starts as rain. Indeed. Seems like the ensemble members that hold back the southern stream energy a bit and manage to get a solid phase just far enough east can deliver the goods. An early phase or no/weak phase is no good for obvious (and different) reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 I was just going to post this, just looked at the individuals, pretty interesting, and much colder than EURO. Where do you guys get the individual members? I'm just looking at the mean on the crappy NCEP graphics... looks pretty solid for the deeper interior on that but there must be some sizable spread in the individuals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2013 Author Share Posted November 22, 2013 I wonder if there's a way to look at the entire period of record for multiple sites lumped into one first order climo station. The "Hartford Area" records go back to 1905 but include a bunch of different places... downtown Hartford, East Hartford, Windsor Locks, etc. Yeah that would be nice...for ORH, its onl two stations I have to look at, so its not hard...but for a place like Hartford, its more than that, so it becomes a project of splicing together records. I do like that you can see records for just one site on the new interface...since different obs locations may not be entirely homogeneous. But it would also still be nice to look at them spliced together anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2013 Author Share Posted November 22, 2013 Indeed. Seems like the ensemble members that hold back the southern stream energy a bit and manage to get a solid phase just far enough east can deliver the goods. An early phase or no/weak phase is no good for obvious (and different) reasons. This goes back to my post earlier about the Euro ensembles showing a colder storm a couple days ago. Those solutions were slower and allowed the clipper to outrun it and build in a bit of a high in its wake to set the table for a more wintry solution. It looks like some of the 18z GEFS members do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Where do you guys get the individual members? I'm just looking at the mean on the crappy NCEP graphics... looks pretty solid for the deeper interior on that but there must be some sizable spread in the individuals. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2013 Author Share Posted November 22, 2013 Where do you guys get the individual members? I'm just looking at the mean on the crappy NCEP graphics... looks pretty solid for the deeper interior on that but there must be some sizable spread in the individuals. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_18z/ensprsloopmref.html edit: Ryan beat me to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 This goes back to my post earlier about the Euro ensembles showing a colder storm a couple days ago. Those solutions were slower and allowed the clipper to outrun it and build in a bit of a high in its wake to set the table for a more wintry solution. It looks like some of the 18z GEFS members do this. Yup - I think you nailed it. Definitely a thread the needle kind of event with timing of all the features. Seems like it's an all or nothing kind of deal - something weak/strung out won't deliver the goods and an early phase just floods us with warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallmref.html Sweet thanks! I just looked all over the Ewall for those, too. Well everything from a bomb over ALB to passing over Bermuda seems to be in play still, lol. Definitely a couple members skewing the mean's westward extent of precip... I was curious how the mean could show 0.5"+ QPF all the way to PIT-ROC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Weren't you born in the late 50s? ORH should have those years...the old record site has data prior to 1948.missing 90's snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Sweet thanks! I just looked all over the Ewall for those, too. Well everything from a bomb over ALB to passing over Bermuda seems to be in play still, lol. Definitely a couple members skewing the mean's westward extent of precip... I was curious how the mean could show 0.5"+ QPF all the way to PIT-ROC area. That's why I swore that this year my new rule would be not to invest anything outside of day 3/4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2013 Author Share Posted November 22, 2013 missing 90's snowfall Oh, I have all of that...what years and day you want? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 In the FWIW category... 21 of 51 Euro Ens members have >2" of snow for BDL with the Wednesday/Thursday event next week. Ensemble mean snow at BDL is just shy of 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 That's why I swore that this year my new rule would be not to invest anything outside of day 3/4.Yeah. 18 hours is about the limit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Oh, I have all of that...what years and day you want?I think he means how the official record is messed upBut you know that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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