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November weather dicsussion


ORH_wxman

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CON record is 27F in threadex...not sure if there is a day colder in the late 1800s though. I think we break it up here. MOS has 28F for Sun at CON and the euro has 2m temps in the low/mid 20s by 6z. The record is from that cold shot in 2000.

 

 

BOX has it as 24F in 1921

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/climate/connov.shtml

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CON record is 27F in threadex...not sure if there is a day colder in the late 1800s though. I think we break it up here. MOS has 28F for Sun at CON and the euro has 2m temps in the low/mid 20s by 6z. The record is from that cold shot in 2000.

Scratch that...just saw 24F for a record low max in the NOWdata which goes back to 1903...that'll be a lot more difficult to break.
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CON record is 27F in threadex...not sure if there is a day colder in the late 1800s though. I think we break it up here. MOS has 28F for Sun at CON and the euro has 2m temps in the low/mid 20s by 6z. The record is from that cold shot in 2000.

 

I see a 24 in 1921. Daily data for that month shows a low of 24 the day before, meaning it may have even been a midnight high of 24. Impressive.

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Still a decent look on the euro ensembles in the long range. Possible threat on 12/2, but that's far away right now. Aleutian ridge alive and well which leads me to believe gradient pattern here we come. Of course what side will we be on? :whistle:

Suppose we ended up on the colder side, regardless it's still not a good look for snow retention necessarily either way, correct?

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Suppose we ended up on the colder side, regardless it's still not a good look for snow retention necessarily either way, correct?

 

I'm not sure I understand....if we end up on the colder side it's not good for snow retention?

 

I'm sure you know how difficult it is to retain snow in January, much less early December. I would just be focused on seeing the white stuff.

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I'm not sure I understand....if we end up on the colder side it's not good for snow retention?

I'm sure you know how difficult it is to retain snow in January, much less early December. I would just be focused on seeing the white stuff.

Yeah I guess I'm looking into it too much, that's almost besides the point.

Yeah it's insane to get snow to stick around here, seems a lot if times it's gone as quick as it came

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I'm not sure I understand....if we end up on the colder side it's not good for snow retention?

I'm sure you know how difficult it is to retain snow in January, much less early December. I would just be focused on seeing the white stuff.

Yeah I guess I'm looking into it too much, that's almost besides the point.

Yeah it's insane to get snow to stick around here, seems a lot if times it's gone as quick as it came

Snow retention almost always requires snow on snow.

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Yeah I guess I'm looking into it too much, that's almost besides the point.

Yeah it's insane to get snow to stick around here, seems a lot if times it's gone as quick as it came

 

I think it does an ok job sticking around for our location. It's not like it's Myrtle Beach, we do ok for the most part. Every winter is different. In general for us, you need a snowy period for snow pack retention because even the good periods have cutters and warmer rainstorms.

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The update to the threadex site is cool, you can isolate by station now and also show the entire year's worht of record....like this is ORH airport record low maxes...it also updates right away (note the record low max in 2013 last week)

 

 

KORH_record_Low_Maxes.png

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The update to the threadex site is cool, you can isolate by station now and also show the entire year's worht of record....like this is ORH airport record low maxes...it also updates right away (note the record low max in 2013 last week)

 

 

KORH_record_Low_Maxes.png

That April one from this year should still be 38F because of the time issue. Eleanor told me they were going to fix those messed up mins.

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Weeklies continue the gradient look. Aleutian ridge hangs tough. Srfc temps stay below normal to at times near normal overall. Some very subtle ridging near the Davis Straits.

Im assuming a SE ridge is in place with cold anomalies present across Canada? The EPO maintains its negative state, nice. Whats the state of the AO? Thanks!

My original forecast since October was a cold end to November leading to a early start of the winter season and that looks to be the case.

I doubt the NAO and AO will maintain any negative phase thru the course of December and if they do reach negative states, it wont be long-lasting.

Looks similar to Dec 07/08 right? Temp wise.

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The update to the threadex site is cool, you can isolate by station now and also show the entire year's worht of record....like this is ORH airport record low maxes...it also updates right away (note the record low max in 2013 last week)

 

 

From what I understand this is basically what the NRCC always had made available to us internally.

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That April one from this year should still be 38F because of the time issue. Eleanor told me they were going to fix those messed up mins.

 

 

Yeah I'm sure it hasn't gone through the red tape yet. I've learned through experience it takes a lot to change crap once its in NCDC. :lol:

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From what I understand this is basically what the NRCC always had made available to us internally.

 

 

The only thing I don't like is that it doesn't look like you can view the top 3 for each date anymore like previously. Not that its a big deal, but it was kind of nice to see what values were 2nd and 3rd place. (and of course this would also tell you what years were ties for a record if it wasn't exclusive)

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Im assuming a SE ridge is in place with cold anomalies present across Canada? The EPO maintains its negative state, nice. Whats the state of the AO? Thanks!

My original forecast since October was a cold end to November leading to a early start of the winter season and that looks to be the case.

I doubt the NAO and AO will maintain any negative phase thru the course of December and if they do reach negative states, it wont be long-lasting.

Looks similar to Dec 07/08 right? Temp wise.

 

Actually verbatim there is virtually no SE ridge. However with such the cold in Canada near the prairies...you always need to watch out for those storms trying to run up the lakes.

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The update to the threadex site is cool, you can isolate by station now and also show the entire year's worht of record....like this is ORH airport record low maxes...it also updates right away (note the record low max in 2013 last week)

 

 

KORH_record_Low_Maxes.png

sure is I linked it earlier, the accumulation from the day I was born is a cool feature, too bad ORH is missing those years

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