CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 If the models are right, most of us will probably stay steady or possibly fall a bit Sunday. BOS probably likely near or below 30 and then falling. Maybe even 20s all day. We welcome Peyton with open arms and frozen weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2013 Author Share Posted November 21, 2013 CON record is 27F in threadex...not sure if there is a day colder in the late 1800s though. I think we break it up here. MOS has 28F for Sun at CON and the euro has 2m temps in the low/mid 20s by 6z. The record is from that cold shot in 2000. BOX has it as 24F in 1921 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/climate/connov.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 CON record is 27F in threadex...not sure if there is a day colder in the late 1800s though. I think we break it up here. MOS has 28F for Sun at CON and the euro has 2m temps in the low/mid 20s by 6z. The record is from that cold shot in 2000.Scratch that...just saw 24F for a record low max in the NOWdata which goes back to 1903...that'll be a lot more difficult to break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 That's just down right cold Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 CON record is 27F in threadex...not sure if there is a day colder in the late 1800s though. I think we break it up here. MOS has 28F for Sun at CON and the euro has 2m temps in the low/mid 20s by 6z. The record is from that cold shot in 2000. I see a 24 in 1921. Daily data for that month shows a low of 24 the day before, meaning it may have even been a midnight high of 24. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Still a decent look on the euro ensembles in the long range. Possible threat on 12/2, but that's far away right now. Aleutian ridge alive and well which leads me to believe gradient pattern here we come. Of course what side will we be on? Suppose we ended up on the colder side, regardless it's still not a good look for snow retention necessarily either way, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 When you have -16 to -18 deviations, that's big time baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Suppose we ended up on the colder side, regardless it's still not a good look for snow retention necessarily either way, correct? I'm not sure I understand....if we end up on the colder side it's not good for snow retention? I'm sure you know how difficult it is to retain snow in January, much less early December. I would just be focused on seeing the white stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 I'm not sure I understand....if we end up on the colder side it's not good for snow retention? I'm sure you know how difficult it is to retain snow in January, much less early December. I would just be focused on seeing the white stuff. Yeah I guess I'm looking into it too much, that's almost besides the point. Yeah it's insane to get snow to stick around here, seems a lot if times it's gone as quick as it came Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 When you have -16 to -18 deviations, that's big time baby. Lol sustained 23 gusting to 38 at 27 degrees, nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Yeah I guess I'm looking into it too much, that's almost besides the point. Yeah it's insane to get snow to stick around here, seems a lot if times it's gone as quick as it came where were you in 02? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 I'm not sure I understand....if we end up on the colder side it's not good for snow retention? I'm sure you know how difficult it is to retain snow in January, much less early December. I would just be focused on seeing the white stuff. Yeah I guess I'm looking into it too much, that's almost besides the point. Yeah it's insane to get snow to stick around here, seems a lot if times it's gone as quick as it came Snow retention almost always requires snow on snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Snow retention almost always requires snow on snow. Yeah 2010-11 it stuck around for a while, but that was an epic period with event after event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 where were you in 02? Young haha, I do remember some winters where we had 3-5 2-4 inch events with tons of cold. In my opinion I'll take a ton of those vs 1 or 2 big storms in a season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2013 Author Share Posted November 21, 2013 ORH record low max is 26F for Nov 24th...that is probable if we can get to 25F by midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Yeah I guess I'm looking into it too much, that's almost besides the point. Yeah it's insane to get snow to stick around here, seems a lot if times it's gone as quick as it came I think it does an ok job sticking around for our location. It's not like it's Myrtle Beach, we do ok for the most part. Every winter is different. In general for us, you need a snowy period for snow pack retention because even the good periods have cutters and warmer rainstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 ORH record low max is 26F for Nov 24th...that is probable if we can get to 25F by midnight. Cheap highs though. This will be the second time we will do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 18z GFS says cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 ORH record low max is 26F for Nov 24th...that is probable if we can get to 25F by midnight.That is the kicker. Maybe the progressive flow can hasten the drop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2013 Author Share Posted November 21, 2013 The update to the threadex site is cool, you can isolate by station now and also show the entire year's worht of record....like this is ORH airport record low maxes...it also updates right away (note the record low max in 2013 last week) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Weeklies continue the gradient look. Aleutian ridge hangs tough. Srfc temps stay below normal to at times near normal overall. Some very subtle ridging near the Davis Straits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Phil and I are thinking the exact same thing. These cold shots taking SSTs down FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The update to the threadex site is cool, you can isolate by station now and also show the entire year's worht of record....like this is ORH airport record low maxes...it also updates right away (note the record low max in 2013 last week) That April one from this year should still be 38F because of the time issue. Eleanor told me they were going to fix those messed up mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Weeklies continue the gradient look. Aleutian ridge hangs tough. Srfc temps stay below normal to at times near normal overall. Some very subtle ridging near the Davis Straits.Im assuming a SE ridge is in place with cold anomalies present across Canada? The EPO maintains its negative state, nice. Whats the state of the AO? Thanks!My original forecast since October was a cold end to November leading to a early start of the winter season and that looks to be the case. I doubt the NAO and AO will maintain any negative phase thru the course of December and if they do reach negative states, it wont be long-lasting. Looks similar to Dec 07/08 right? Temp wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The update to the threadex site is cool, you can isolate by station now and also show the entire year's worht of record....like this is ORH airport record low maxes...it also updates right away (note the record low max in 2013 last week) From what I understand this is basically what the NRCC always had made available to us internally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2013 Author Share Posted November 21, 2013 That April one from this year should still be 38F because of the time issue. Eleanor told me they were going to fix those messed up mins. Yeah I'm sure it hasn't gone through the red tape yet. I've learned through experience it takes a lot to change crap once its in NCDC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2013 Author Share Posted November 21, 2013 From what I understand this is basically what the NRCC always had made available to us internally. The only thing I don't like is that it doesn't look like you can view the top 3 for each date anymore like previously. Not that its a big deal, but it was kind of nice to see what values were 2nd and 3rd place. (and of course this would also tell you what years were ties for a record if it wasn't exclusive) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Im assuming a SE ridge is in place with cold anomalies present across Canada? The EPO maintains its negative state, nice. Whats the state of the AO? Thanks! My original forecast since October was a cold end to November leading to a early start of the winter season and that looks to be the case. I doubt the NAO and AO will maintain any negative phase thru the course of December and if they do reach negative states, it wont be long-lasting. Looks similar to Dec 07/08 right? Temp wise. Actually verbatim there is virtually no SE ridge. However with such the cold in Canada near the prairies...you always need to watch out for those storms trying to run up the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The update to the threadex site is cool, you can isolate by station now and also show the entire year's worht of record....like this is ORH airport record low maxes...it also updates right away (note the record low max in 2013 last week) sure is I linked it earlier, the accumulation from the day I was born is a cool feature, too bad ORH is missing those years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2013 Author Share Posted November 21, 2013 sure is I linked it earlier, the accumulation from the day I was born is a cool feature, too bad ORH is missing those years Weren't you born in the late 50s? ORH should have those years...the old record site has data prior to 1948. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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