Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 We need an auto-bot to just post this every 3-4 hours for the next two weeks. Seems to come up several times a day, lol. First week of Dec is gold, lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2013 Author Share Posted November 21, 2013 what would you us rather do? Keep the emotional swings and weenie fodder to a minimum (or in the banter thread) until the storm is closer in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 I really wouldn't be shock'd if southern system slows down on future runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 T-day in 85 went from a cold rain to a heavy sleet in my areaI remember that well. Marching in the band in high school during a sleet fest. That blew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Model mayhem. But lots of time to sort this out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 I really wouldn't be shock'd if southern system slows down on future runs You need to quantify why you feel this way, otherwise this is pure weenie-ism remark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 it's still 5-6 days away and the euro has been too amplified at this range all season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Keep the emotional swings and weenie fodder to a minimum (or in the banter thread) until the storm is closer in. Meh, not seeing it but OK we have finally overcome the 90's snow drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 it's still 5-6 days away and the euro has been too amplified at this range all season At least this time around, the Euro is supported by the GEFS mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 If you want to get a better looking snow threat, we'd need something to happen like the ensembles were showing a couple days ago....they had the little clipper system moving through Tuesday night and Wednesday morning and then behind it, a bit of reinforcement of cold air out in front of the main system....note the high position as the storm is approching from the south. On more recent runs the past 24 hours, we've had the southern system speed up and try and ride the coattails of the clipper system....but that is bad since it doesn't allow us to reset the airmass after the warm air advection from the clipper and it also keeps the ageostrophic flow from coming out of the north. Here's the euro from last night (and it looks pretty similar at 12z today at 132 hours: Note that our nice high pressure on the ensembles from earlier this week is still back over west-central Canada and the storm is faster down south trying to run up underneath the clipper.....just a bad setup all around for snow. most of the precip isn't even from the coastal, it's from a system that develops ahead of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lindsaywx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 GGEM a nice compromise..but still looks like a rain to snow scenario like 00z Euro was pic.twitter.com/XZljt60zOj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Ensembles? Were similar to the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Really is an epically cold outlook in these progs, look forward to this incredibly powerful arctic invasion. Squalls and just brutal bitter winds will come crashing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 GGEM was a scraper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Really is an epically cold outlook in these progs, look forward to this incredibly powerful arctic invasion. Squalls and just brutal bitter winds will come crashing in. Windex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 GGEM a nice compromise..but still looks like a rain to snow scenario like 00z Euro was pic.twitter.com/XZljt60zOj GGEM's low it has leaving Hatteras circa 140 hours out is completely convectively induced, and therefore, not likely to exist. It's a pretty bogus and glaringly suspicious feature, so saying this model is a nice compromise is weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 GGEM's low it has leaving Hatteras circa 140 hours out is completely convectively induced, and therefore, not likely to exist. It's a pretty bogus and glaringly suspicious feature, so saying this model is a nice compromise is weird. Yup. I discounted it once I saw that spurious low blow up where the piece of energy was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Yup. I discounted it once I saw that spurious low blow up where the piece of energy was. It does remind us though ... the gradients along and off the EC are going to be pretty epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The 18Z NAM at 84 (yeah, I know the odds) has EPIC cold for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The 12z Euro ensembles support the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Typical impatience in early season...people grasp to 6-8 day events, and then by mid winter, the weenieism dies down a little for events that far out (but not totally of course) It's cold and we'll likely have some mood flakes possible on Sunday morning. We at least have some type of "event" to track for thanksgiving and another the week beyond. In between we'll be averaging temps below/well below. I'm more looking forward to potential snow showers or flurries Sunday morning then I am anything next week. All precip type events seem to be falling apart as they approach and until that changes...it's like you said why get worked up about D5+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2013 Author Share Posted November 21, 2013 Midnight highs are going to be the only thing standing in the way of record low maxes being shattered at all SNE sites on Sunday. We still might do it anyway...but the highs are likely to be midnight that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 12z ec ens continue to add more members to the warmer side of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lindsaywx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 12z ec ens continue to add more members to the warmer side of guidance. Extended? Or next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 12z NAM has 2M temps around 25F for HFD and just northwest of BOS at 18z Sunday. Sustained winds around 20 knots too... gusting near 40? Downslope dandy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Still a decent look on the euro ensembles in the long range. Possible threat on 12/2, but that's far away right now. Aleutian ridge alive and well which leads me to believe gradient pattern here we come. Of course what side will we be on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Really is an epically cold outlook in these progs, look forward to this incredibly powerful arctic invasion. Squalls and just brutal bitter winds will come crashing in. Roughly once every 10 years or so for SNE if the NAEFS is right getting -16 C down to the coast at 850 mb. -3 to -4 SD incoming for the Tidewater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Midnight highs are going to be the only thing standing in the way of record low maxes being shattered at all SNE sites on Sunday. We still might do it anyway...but the highs are likely to be midnight that day.CON record is 27F in threadex...not sure if there is a day colder in the late 1800s though. I think we break it up here. MOS has 28F for Sun at CON and the euro has 2m temps in the low/mid 20s by 6z. The record is from that cold shot in 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Extended? Or next weekMy bad...next week's system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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