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November weather dicsussion


ORH_wxman

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If you want to get a better looking snow threat, we'd need something to happen like the ensembles were showing a couple days ago....they had the little clipper system moving through Tuesday night and Wednesday morning and then behind it, a bit of reinforcement of cold air out in front of the main system....note the high position as the storm is approching from the south.

 

On more recent runs the past 24 hours, we've had the southern system speed up and try and ride the coattails of the clipper system....but that is bad since it doesn't allow us to reset the airmass after the warm air advection from the clipper and it also keeps the ageostrophic flow from coming out of the north.

 

Here's the euro from last night (and it looks pretty similar at 12z today at 132 hours:

 

Note that our nice high pressure on the ensembles from earlier this week is still back over west-central Canada and the storm is faster down south trying to run up underneath the clipper.....just a bad setup all around for snow.

most of the precip isn't even from the coastal, it's from a system that develops ahead of it

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GGEM a nice compromise..but still looks like a rain to snow scenario like 00z Euro was

 

pic.twitter.com/XZljt60zOj

 

GGEM's low it has leaving Hatteras circa 140 hours out is completely convectively induced, and therefore, not likely to exist.   It's a pretty bogus and glaringly suspicious feature, so saying this model is a nice compromise is weird.   

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GGEM's low it has leaving Hatteras circa 140 hours out is completely convectively induced, and therefore, not likely to exist.   It's a pretty bogus and glaringly suspicious feature, so saying this model is a nice compromise is weird.   

Yup.  I discounted it once I saw that spurious low blow up where the piece of energy was.

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Typical impatience in early season...people grasp to 6-8 day events, and then by mid winter, the weenieism dies down a little for events that far out (but not totally of course)

 

It's cold and we'll likely have some mood flakes possible on Sunday morning.  We at least have some type of "event" to track for thanksgiving and another the week beyond.  In between we'll be averaging temps below/well below. 

 

I'm more looking forward to potential snow showers or flurries Sunday morning then I am anything next week.  All precip type events seem to be falling apart as they approach and until that changes...it's like you said why get worked up about D5+

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Really is an epically cold outlook in these progs, look forward to this incredibly powerful arctic invasion. Squalls and just brutal bitter winds will come crashing in. 

 

Roughly once every 10 years or so for SNE if the NAEFS is right getting -16 C down to the coast at 850 mb.

 

-3 to -4 SD incoming for the Tidewater.

 

naefs_2013112112_ne_freq_t_850_72.png

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Midnight highs are going to be the only thing standing in the way of record low maxes being shattered at all SNE sites on Sunday. We still might do it anyway...but the highs are likely to be midnight that day.

CON record is 27F in threadex...not sure if there is a day colder in the late 1800s though. I think we break it up here. MOS has 28F for Sun at CON and the euro has 2m temps in the low/mid 20s by 6z. The record is from that cold shot in 2000.
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