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November weather dicsussion


ORH_wxman

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The northern stream retreats up into southern Canada. Then a low forms in the gulf of Alaska. That will change though. The models have been hinting at another potential the first week of December.

 

I still think we relax sometime during the first few days of December.  The GEFS break down the Aleutian ridge a bit, but then develop lower heights south of there which normally would pump up AK heights, so hope for that. 

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I actually think the GEFS are reasonable, but my guess is as good as throwing a dart in this pattern.

 

Ya I just looked a the GEFS mean.  Seems reasonable with the SLP track near or over CC.  The op is so far from the mean it is kind of comical.  

 

I do wish that I had a better resource for the euro ensembles though.  Might try to look into something for that.

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I think the Euro is a solution that could trend colder as we get closer. If that phase occurs just a little sooner and we get a deeper low at our latitude, it's going to pull down some cold air on the backside. Dynamics could also come into play, especially for the corridor just NW of I-95.

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This what this board does best in the winter though, haha.

 

 

Typical impatience in early season...people grasp to 6-8 day events, and then by mid winter, the weenieism dies down a little for events that far out (but not totally of course)

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NAM appears to have brought the Sunday clipper system further south, while the GFS and EURO really show a non event for Cape Cod, MA and areas further northwest.  SO right now it looks like a non event.

 

 

Go with flurries and maybe some scattered snow showers for Sunday morning...most likely scenario. Vortmax is not as sharp/potent as it was yesterday on the 12z euro. Its more rounded...so we lose the inverted trough feature. Only left with a bit of instability in the mid-levels which means some flurries.

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I'm not really worried about the  track right now as we know that will shift a bunch run to run. My thing against this is that we not only need a favorable track of the low, but to get accumulating snow on the coast youre gonna need to phase in the arctic jet. I dont see it happening right now. I'd say we end up somewhere from a rain coast/snow well inland like a 00z euro-esque scenario or the northern stream crushes southern wave and it scoots out to sea more like progressive gfs.. 

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If you want to get a better looking snow threat, we'd need something to happen like the ensembles were showing a couple days ago....they had the little clipper system moving through Tuesday night and Wednesday morning and then behind it, a bit of reinforcement of cold air out in front of the main system....note the high position as the storm is approching from the south.

 

 

Nov19_00z_Euro_ENS.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

On more recent runs the past 24 hours, we've had the southern system speed up and try and ride the coattails of the clipper system....but that is bad since it doesn't allow us to reset the airmass after the warm air advection from the clipper and it also keeps the ageostrophic flow from coming out of the north.

 

 

 

Here's the euro from last night (and it looks pretty similar at 12z today at 132 hours:

 

f144.gif

 

 

 

 

Note that our nice high pressure on the ensembles from earlier this week is still back over west-central Canada and the storm is faster down south trying to run up underneath the clipper.....just a bad setup all around for snow.

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