CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Cold Turkey Day though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 That's why it's a fine line. It either tries to phase or the srn energy ejects out ahead of the nrn stream ad shoots it north, or nothing happens and it moves out to sea. Virtually impossible for a mostly snow event. Going to be pretty tough getting this one to bomb in the right spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 That's why it's a fine line. It either tries to phase or the srn energy ejects out ahead of the nrn stream and shoots it north, or nothing happens and it moves out to sea. Virtually impossible for a mostly snow event. -NAO and a 50/50 low would have helped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Well, as the old adage goes, it's tough to get a snow with a preceding southwest flow. If nothing else, it's bad karma. But, this solution is enough unlike it's predecessors to assume this isn't final. Need to get this inside D6 ...5 for the Euro's big wheel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Safe to say this is the most unlikely solution. A tamer farther SE solution makes sense given progressive pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Noaa's winter outlook http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbyTgOjkW6c#t=11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Well Brian 12345 will be happy with his 1-2" of rain. He was worried about it being to dry, I think if he would look at the next couple weeks being modeled he wont have that worry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 -NAO and a 50/50 low would have helped. Is there any chance of this changing? Can we get a high to banana in from somewhere, ughh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Well Brian 12345 will be happy with his 1-2" of rain. Did the storm happen already? How many times has the Euro shown this this year only to bust horribly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Safe to say this is the most unlikely solution. A tamer farther SE solution makes sense given progressive pattern One phrase, "The Euro phases the two streams" and that is what makes the world of difference in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Noaa's winter outlook http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbyTgOjkW6c#t=11 really going out on a limb there....I mean, what does 40% chance of location x being warmer than normal tell us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Damn 1046 HP over the Eastern U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 It's not really a phase until it gets near our latitude. Strong srn s/w develops a wave along the front and shoots it north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 posts like this with no met or discussion are for banter. It's progressive. We aren't going to have a wound up inland runner It's over SNE, not inland. Very easily could happen. It's one of several solutions. Nothing is set and stone, but silly to write this off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 really going out on a limb there....I mean, what does 40% chance of location x being warmer than normal tell us? That there is a 60% chance it wont be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The GEFS must have many wound up members to have the 850 low go over MPM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Is there any chance of this changing? Can we get a high to banana in from somewhere, ughh. It's real early in the season and climo(temps) is not really on our side right now so you need a near perfect setup to pull these off. Let's root for this thing to phase over the GL at this point! The Euro solution is U-G-L-Y Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Noaa's winter outlook http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbyTgOjkW6c#t=11 Half the time I think they just throw darts at a map. My outlook has just as good of a chance as verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Cold Turkey Day though. T-day in 85 went from a cold rain to a heavy sleet in my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 It's over SNE, not inland. Very easily could happen. It's one of several solutions. Nothing is set and stone, but silly to write this off.so SNE isn't inland? My point is it's more likely to be ots given the progressive patt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 so SNE isn't inland? My point is it's more likely to be ots given the progressive patt I would not bet on that right now. This thing can just as easily cut W of us as an OTS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Looks like the EURO wants to repeat itself Day 8-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 so SNE isn't inland? My point is it's more likely to be ots given the progressive patt Eh, it's only the nrn stream that is progressive. A little wiggle here and there could easily allow it north. I really don't know at this stage, but you have no blocking and a big ridge by Bermuda so this solution is plausible. Sometimes you won't get blizzards in November. It happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 It's real early in the season and climo(temps) is not really on our side right now so you need a near perfect setup to pull these off. Let's root for this thing to phase over the GL at this point! The Euro solution is U-G-L-Y What could be better than measuring rain with a ruler? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lindsaywx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Looks like the EURO wants to repeat itself Day 8-10. Meaning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Meaning? Its ejecting a southwestern ULL....Pattern in Canada/ our area look similar to what it shows for pre T-day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Looks like the EURO wants to repeat itself Day 8-10. The northern stream retreats up into southern Canada. Then a low forms in the gulf of Alaska. That will change though. The models have been hinting at another potential the first week of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Its ejecting a southwestern ULL....Pattern in Canada/ our area look similar to what it shows for pre T-day. That's a very mild look to the CONUS at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Well, time to come back, snow is coming. Amazing the massive difference between the OP GFS and Euro. I am at least thankful we have so much cold air around. Besides some rouge storms, I feel like it has been pretty warm Nov-Dec over the last several years. I am very optimistic for the next 2 weeks though. With the large amount of Arctic outbreaks and digging troughs, I think there will be plenty of surprises for snow, even if they are small. These super fast moving systems are tough to model, especially if they have late development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The 1st week of december looks like it could be the next period of significance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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