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November weather dicsussion


ORH_wxman

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Could not ask for a better pattern going forward this early. Looks beautiful.

Yeah I feel like this is the first time in a while that early season snow and winter conditions is favorable. With the exception or 2010-11 as the obvious outlier

Broke out the northface for the first time today. Mid winter feel- awesome

I refuse to wear the full mid winter attire before December but the ll bean jacket is good to the upper teens.

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Nice explanation. Question, could this be a winter where the EPO rises and falls periodically? There would still be chances but snowpack retention could be iffy.

 

In order, the NAO, EPO, and WPO have too much intra-seasonal variability to really have a lot of confidence -- although, very recent science by Cohen et al have identified some intriguing statistical correlations that pertain to the NAO ... and possibly the EPO (personally I believe those findings work everywhere because physics are universal, but that's a different discussion).   

 

As far as the EPO, it's more a seasonal trend thing.  You got three, negative EPO spikes over the last month.  I can remember plenty of autumns that did not exhibit this behavior.  The intuitive answer is that there is something about the circulation across the Pacific (from tropical forcing to the pole) that is dumping ridge tendencies into the EPO domain.  

 

What those are, not sure, but the end result is what it is.  It's probably a cocktail of factors, ranging from the torque over Asia snapping waves down stream into the WPO, the MJO variability up underneath, and the state of the ENSO all teaming up.   Immensely complicated.  Just on the surface I believe the Pacific exhibiting the AB phase of the circulation has probably got greater roots in the Asia relay into the WP, combined with recurving typhoons earlier in the month.   Either could motivate a -EPO phase, but we had (possibly) multiple factors super-imposing, and several pulses of -EPO resulted.   Looking ahead ... there are signs in the tele's that it may continue in oscillatory behavior, as another negative ensues post the 20th of the month (circa)

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You are funny. At the beginning of the month you are on JB's twitter page almost mocking his BN November forecast. Today you are the cold miser. I'm getting dizzy. LOL.

Euro sped up the fropa next week to late Monday/ Looks chilly much of next week..Looks like it's getting ready to unload again week of Tgiving..but that's getting out past day 10

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I failed to break 30° F for a max IMBY with a high of 29° F. PSF looks to have reached 30° F for a period this afternoon. This is about our average for the mid-winter minimum around the 3rd week of January, so this cold shot is impressive to say the least.

 

If the winds can calm down, some of the valleys could approach 10° F around here overnight. I'm thinking low to mid teens for most locations around here.

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Man I thought Nov would come in slightly above normal but the ENS after the 19th drill some serious cold in here and keep it below normal for the last 10 days of the month.

 

It will be mild this weekend into early next week., but yeah...it certainly is cooler than it looked 2 weeks ago. Hopefully December doesn't flip mid month.

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as it is -14s to -16s across the board for today

Yeah even BTV is now -0.7 on the month...that's remarkable. They've had three double digit negative departures this month (today will be the 4th) and all they can muster is -.7, lol. It'll swing back decently above normal the next 6 days though...I would love to see them below normal this month, not sure it happens though.

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1995esque to a degree.

 

I was just thinking that earlier today... I remember a cold snap in mid Novie ended up in a sleet/snow affair N of the Pike circa the 19th, 1995.  For us at UML in the Merrimack Valley, it would mean persistent snow pack until the end of January mega-thaw.  

 

Thing is, I don't believe we were looking at a warm recovery pattern that year like we are observing in the runs now.   We'll see how it goes, but it appears it turns more non-recovery cold-like post the 20th to me.  I have been noticing that last several cycles of the operational, a cold continent evolves N of about 40N by the 22nd+, the kind where it's not like these as of late ... invasions followed by a roll-out warm-ups.  There is more of a permanent looking cold thickness wall setting up from the NP to SE Canda or even in here by T-day.  

 

Backed by yet another downward EPO burst leading the way beginning ~ 5 or 6 days from now.  And, the PNA may be relaxing it's negative posture by then, which would only make the EPO that much more effectual in loading cold into middle N/A latitudes.   We'll see how the AO goes; some additional spread was re-introduced into the runs last night, just when we had better agreement. Oy vay!   But as EPO intrusions have proven, the AO ain't the whole story.

 

Things looking good from where I sit for winter weather enthusiasm, given just a little bit of patients.  

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