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November weather dicsussion


ORH_wxman

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I was thinking normal to a bit above..I don't think anyone..met or weenie thought we'd see the kind of cold month we've seen. it's pretty amazing really when you think about it. It just goes to show how LR forecasting really is voodoo

Not so voodoo, Oct 17th

 

Going to try something new this year instead of a winter outlook I am going to try to break the rest of fall, and going into winter, down in 6 week increments based on a formula I have been testing with a little success. The images presented capture moments in time of the week, a static 5H height for a given day in a given week. i will describe what I expect to happen and what I expect deviations will be as well as periods where potential storminess will occur. Of course please chime in. I will score each week based on a Friday to Thursday deviation for two stations near me IJD and ORH. These forecasts are only for fun and experimental, don't kill me if I bust horribly. also these roughly represent my back yard with some region wide stuff thrown in. In a nutshell, looks pretty darn cold through November to me and starting Dec more of the same. I will not update until 12/6/13, it is what it is. I expect the PNA to be positive, EPO neg and NAO negative as a whole on average .

WEEK 1

Ending 11/1/13

Much below normal for the week with temperatures -3 to-5 BN region wide, potential for minor precip events with possible Mtn, elevated snow, upslope snow and LES

WEEK 2

Ending 11/8/13

A continuation of somewhat below normal temps -1 to-3 region wide with the potential for a cutter and a widespread rain event, possible redeveloping as a Miller B allowing for far interior snow

WEEK 3

Ending 11/15/13

a return to a colder regime with temps -3-5 below normal, a potential phase change wet event prior to the cold outbreak, this again could be a cutter with possible a follow up coastal bringing a more region wide elevated snow to the Berks , Greens, Whites

Week 4

Ending 11/22/13

A change to a warmer week with region wide warmth, pretty dry with warm frontal showers Temps +3 to +7

Week 5

Ending 11/29/13

A massive shift in temps with some very cold air finishing out the month, possible heavy snow almost to the coast with interior areas getting the most. Temps -4 to -6

Week 6

Ending 12/6/13

Possible record cold with a region wide blanket of snow, maybe heavy , Miller B type with a clipper thrown in. temps- 5 to -7

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I never know if there is any truth to these Gefs posts or if it's just weenies looking for straws

 

 

 

It is definitely NW of the OP, but its warm. There is probably very little chance of accumulating snow on the coast in this...esp further south. The interior might get something, but even then its going to need to take a fairly narrow track.

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I never said it was snow. Just pointing out that it's nothing like the OP. It phases both streams at hour 150.

 

An ensemble mean can't show phasing of both streams. The mean could indicate that a majority of members phase the streams but ensemble means are just averages of each ensemble member - it's really not (and shouldn't be treated as) a separate computer model. 

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An ensemble mean can't show phasing of both streams. The mean could indicate that a majority of members phase the streams but ensemble means are just averages of each ensemble member - it's really not (and shouldn't be treated as) a separate computer model. 

That's what I meant, I assumed everyone knew that.

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I just checked ... the 12z GFS ensemble have a few more members on-board for stream interaction heading into mid week.   

 

Right now the will-be S/W quasi-closed vortex is slipping S as an outside slider along the West Coast.  We'll see what it does when it turns the corner and cuts.  It could very well acquire an addition closed contour or so, indicating a deeper system.   That would need to be conserved post-ejection, and one thing it could do is entice the N-stream to come down further as it passes the latitude of the MV.  That's basically the difference between the 00z and 12z NAVGEM (though this not a deterministic statement, just that it exemplifies the uncertainty).   

 

I like Cisco's take on this:


...LOW CROSSING THE SOUTH AND TURNING UP THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK A CONCERN FOR TRAVEL..

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL HANGING BACK OVER NORTHERN MEXICO, THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION SPREAD DOWNSTREAM REMAINS ENORMOUS. WHEN
THAT WAVE FINALLY EJECTS, ITS NORTHERN EXTENT WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE PHASE OF THE PROGRESSION OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS SAILING ASTRIDE
THE CANADIAN BORDER. RELIED ON THE 06Z/21 GEFS MEAN AS A SYNOPTIC BACKGROUND FOR THE FRONTS AND PRESSURES THIS PACKAGE. THIS
PARTICULAR ENSEMBLE MEAN KEPT MORE BAGGINESS IN THE ISOBARIC PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY--A
REFLECTION OF A CLUSTER OF ITS INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS THAT INDICATED A SLOWER EJECTION. SLOWER IS USUALLY BETTER WITH REGARD TO THE
PROGRESS OF SUCH SOUTHWEST HANGBACK TROUGHS, SO WANTED TO HEDGE BETS IN THAT DIRECTION. PERUSAL OF THE 20 ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
COMPRISING THE 06Z/21 GEFS MEAN SHOWED DRAMATIC VARIATION--SOME DRY, COLD SOLUTIONS FOR THE EAST COAST--SOME SNOWY ONES FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC--SOME RAINY, WINDY ONES ALL THE WAY INTO NEW ENGLAND. PRECIPITATION TYPE ASIDE, THE WAVE WILL
STILL AFFECT MAJOR AIRPORTS FROM DALLAS TO ATLANTA, AND PROBABLY THE BIG HUBS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THE ALWAYS-BUSY TRAVEL
DAYS BEFORE THANKSGIVING.

....

CISCO
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Where is Mike, This should satisfy his fetish, But the wrong way, Floods us with warmth with a 988mb low over DE Maine

 

That's why it's a fine line. It either tries to phase or the srn energy ejects out ahead of the nrn stream and shoots it north, or nothing happens and it moves out to sea. Virtually impossible for a mostly snow event.

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