IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Lollies to an inch on that (I assume those are MM). That's inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 You wonder how far below normal all 4 climo sites will be this month? Could we see some -3 or more? Well I'm just surprised how this month has turned out. Below normal is a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Big time inversion today. Lots of smoke from fireplaces trapped in low spots. Take the under on high temp forecasts today I had a low of 14F at 750ft while it was 34F at 4000ft. A whopper of an inversion, but depends where your forecasting....take the over at the summits, and under in the valleys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Well I'm just surprised how this month has turned out. Below normal is a lock. I was thinking normal to a bit above..I don't think anyone..met or weenie thought we'd see the kind of cold month we've seen. it's pretty amazing really when you think about it. It just goes to show how LR forecasting really is voodoo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Well I'm just surprised how this month has turned out. Below normal is a lock. Yeah...sitting +.2 up here with this cold coming in, bound to end up below normal. It will probably be closer than it should based on the "feel" of this month as being quite cold, but if we could get to a -1 that would be huge. Seeing as we've averaged +2 in the means for the past 6-7 years, a -1 is like the new -3 at BTV. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Sunday looks bitterly cold. Euro 2M temps at 18z SUnday... Plus GFS shows deep, deep mixing on Sunday with probable gusts 40+ knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Sunday looks bitterly cold. Euro 2M temps at 18z SUnday... Plus GFS shows deep, deep mixing on Sunday with probable gusts 40+ knots. Oh yeah, a take the under day. Probably some midnight highs before the true arctic air comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Oh yeah, a take the under day. Probably some midnight highs before the true arctic air comes. Hopefully we aren't at a bootleg 31F at midnight... would rather 20s for the high lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Sort of a bummer the Wednesday threat appears to be going away - would have been nice to finally track something. Maybe a Miller B threat over the weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Toronto went out to get some rope after Scott N's earlier post on the euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Interior people are funny. They seem to have more qpf worries then folks that live in the coastal plain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Toronto went out to get some rope after Scott N's earlier post on the euro ensembles. I guess he missed the part where I said its still a good look and cold in Canada lol. It's fine, I just don't want it farther west. If you look at the other models a nice compromise would be just fine for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 They seem to have more qpf worries then folks that live in the coastal plain We are hardy folk who are used to Ptype issues and cheer on any snow for the interior. However it seems that when these folk may miss on snow, the pouting starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Toronto went out to get some rope after Scott N's earlier post on the euro ensembles. I guess he missed the part where I said its still a good look and cold in Canada lol. It's fine, I just don't want it farther west. If you look at the other models a nice compromise would be just fine for us. I think occasional vortices in ak are normal. Wasn't one around during some of our epic period last winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 I think occasional vortices in ak are normal. Wasn't one around during some of our epic period last winter? Yeah those always happen. I'm referring to the broader picture, but it's such a poleward ridge that it works. Not worried, just watching it. Probably some typical ensemble variance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 We are hardy folk who are used to Ptype issues and cheer on any snow for the interior. However it seems that when these folk may miss on snow, the pouting starts. Thursday system, If it pans out may be this same scenario you have laid out above with snow inland and mixed bag at the coast, There will always be winners and losers in these systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Yeah those always happen. I'm referring to the broader picture, but it's such a poleward ridge that it works. Not worried, just watching it. Probably some typical ensemble variance. I wasn't worried when you said they retro the ridge. I took a look myself and they look decent. P.S Wxbell now has the ECWMF Ensembles through D15 so more asking Scott how they look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Sort of a bummer the Wednesday threat appears to be going away - would have been nice to finally track something. Maybe a Miller B threat over the weekend? The Op 06z GFS was a weenie run. LOL. Miller B next weekend than a follow-up system the end of the 1st week of Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Not sure why comments are being made about losing the midweek system when the overnight runs and the ens brought it back. It seems the bigger worry is ptype vs OTS to be sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Thursday system, If it pans out may be this same scenario you have laid out above with snow inland and mixed bag at the coast, There will always be winners and losers in these systems And hard for us to complain when so early in the season. SSTs should be in the U40s next week which is still warm, but helps. These cold shots knock it back a degree or two each time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Not sure why comments are being made about losing the midweek system when the overnight runs and the ens brought it back. It seems the bigger worry is ptype vs OTS to be sure Well it's definitely a thread the needle event, but too early to say either way. I remind those to look at the comments we made last night about model mayhem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 This cold coming in is spectacular for 11/24! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Not sure why comments are being made about losing the midweek system when the overnight runs and the ens brought it back. It seems the bigger worry is ptype vs OTS to be sure Seems like the 2 most likely scenarios are out to sea or too warm for snow. The least likely scenario would be a good winter storm. Seems like everything remains sort of strung out a bit and regardless of where it tracks it's not terribly organized. Would need the bomb in the right place for snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Here are some record earliest dates for high temperature at or below temperature thresholds. EARLIEST DATE IN FALL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE AT OR BELOW THRESHOLD TEMP ALB BDL BDR BOS BTV CON ORH PVD -------------------------------------------------------------------- 35 10/30 11/06 11/06 11/02 10/10 10/23 10/20 11/11 34 11/02 11/10 11/18 11/04 10/20 10/23 10/23 11/14 33 11/02 11/11 11/18 11/04 10/23 10/23 10/23 11/14 32 11/06 11/11 11/18 11/08 10/23 10/23 11/06 11/14 31 11/10 11/14 11/22 11/14 10/23 10/23 11/06 11/14 30 11/14 11/15 11/22 11/14 10/23 11/10 11/06 11/14 29 11/14 11/16 11/23 11/16 11/02 11/10 11/11 11/16 28 11/14 11/16 11/27 11/16 11/02 11/14 11/11 11/16 27 11/14 11/16 11/27 11/16 11/11 11/14 11/16 11/16 26 11/14 11/17 11/30 11/21 11/14 11/15 11/20 11/16 25 11/14 11/25 12/03 11/21 11/14 11/15 11/20 11/25 24 11/15 11/26 12/03 11/21 11/14 11/15 11/20 11/30 23 11/15 11/26 12/06 11/21 11/14 11/15 11/20 11/30 22 11/21 12/03 12/11 11/29 11/15 11/15 11/23 12/03 21 11/21 12/03 12/11 11/30 11/15 11/25 11/27 12/03 20 11/25 12/03 12/12 11/30 11/15 11/27 11/30 12/03 19 11/25 12/03 12/13 11/30 11/15 11/27 12/03 12/03 18 11/26 12/03 12/13 11/30 11/15 11/27 12/03 12/03 17 11/26 12/03 12/13 11/30 11/21 11/27 12/03 12/04 16 11/26 12/04 12/13 11/30 11/25 12/03 12/03 12/04 15 11/26 12/05 12/21 11/30 11/25 12/03 12/03 12/04 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Fantastic chart! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 12z NAM has 2M temps around 25F for HFD and just northwest of BOS at 18z Sunday. Sustained winds around 20 knots too... gusting near 40? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 We are hardy folk who are used to Ptype issues and cheer on any snow for the interior. However it seems that when these folk may miss on snow, the pouting starts. LOL. At least with p-type issues you can get some front-end or backend snow. With cirrus, you get butkus. Thursday system, If it pans out may be this same scenario you have laid out above with snow inland and mixed bag at the coast, There will always be winners and losers in these systems Well it's definitely a thread the needle event, but too early to say either way. I remind those to look at the comments we made last night about model mayhem. That's what I said. Here are some record earliest dates for high temperature at or below temperature thresholds. EARLIEST DATE IN FALL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE AT OR BELOW THRESHOLD TEMP ALB BDL BDR BOS BTV CON ORH PVD -------------------------------------------------------------------- 35 10/30 11/06 11/06 11/02 10/10 10/23 10/20 11/11 34 11/02 11/10 11/18 11/04 10/20 10/23 10/23 11/14 33 11/02 11/11 11/18 11/04 10/23 10/23 10/23 11/14 32 11/06 11/11 11/18 11/08 10/23 10/23 11/06 11/14 31 11/10 11/14 11/22 11/14 10/23 10/23 11/06 11/14 30 11/14 11/15 11/22 11/14 10/23 11/10 11/06 11/14 29 11/14 11/16 11/23 11/16 11/02 11/10 11/11 11/16 28 11/14 11/16 11/27 11/16 11/02 11/14 11/11 11/16 27 11/14 11/16 11/27 11/16 11/11 11/14 11/16 11/16 26 11/14 11/17 11/30 11/21 11/14 11/15 11/20 11/16 25 11/14 11/25 12/03 11/21 11/14 11/15 11/20 11/25 24 11/15 11/26 12/03 11/21 11/14 11/15 11/20 11/30 23 11/15 11/26 12/06 11/21 11/14 11/15 11/20 11/30 22 11/21 12/03 12/11 11/29 11/15 11/15 11/23 12/03 21 11/21 12/03 12/11 11/30 11/15 11/25 11/27 12/03 20 11/25 12/03 12/12 11/30 11/15 11/27 11/30 12/03 19 11/25 12/03 12/13 11/30 11/15 11/27 12/03 12/03 18 11/26 12/03 12/13 11/30 11/15 11/27 12/03 12/03 17 11/26 12/03 12/13 11/30 11/21 11/27 12/03 12/04 16 11/26 12/04 12/13 11/30 11/25 12/03 12/03 12/04 15 11/26 12/05 12/21 11/30 11/25 12/03 12/03 12/04 Interesting--if I'm reading that right, BOS was faster than ORH in achieving a daily high of 15 or lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Interesting--if I'm reading that right, BOS was faster than ORH in achieving a daily high of 15 or lower. It's possible it was some 188x year when BOS was the only station in southern New England. I thought about throwing the years on the chart but wanted to keep it compact. EDIT: It was 1875 with a high of 10. The next time BOS was AOB 15 for a high was 12/8/1906 with a high of 14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Thats an 11/30 at bos not 11/3 ORH is 12/3 while BOS is 11/30 which is why he found it interesting. If you throw out BOS's early history, then it goes to 12/8 putting it after ORH which is what you would expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 My mistake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.