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November weather dicsussion


ORH_wxman

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Well I'm just surprised how this month has turned out. Below normal is a lock.

I was thinking normal to a bit above..I don't think anyone..met or weenie thought we'd see the kind of cold month we've seen. it's pretty amazing really when you think about it. It just goes to show how LR forecasting really is voodoo

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Well I'm just surprised how this month has turned out. Below normal is a lock.

Yeah...sitting +.2 up here with this cold coming in, bound to end up below normal. It will probably be closer than it should based on the "feel" of this month as being quite cold, but if we could get to a -1 that would be huge. Seeing as we've averaged +2 in the means for the past 6-7 years, a -1 is like the new -3 at BTV. Impressive.

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Toronto went out to get some rope after Scott N's earlier post on the euro ensembles.

I guess he missed the part where I said its still a good look and cold in Canada lol. It's fine, I just don't want it farther west. If you look at the other models a nice compromise would be just fine for us.

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Toronto went out to get some rope after Scott N's earlier post on the euro ensembles.

I guess he missed the part where I said its still a good look and cold in Canada lol. It's fine, I just don't want it farther west. If you look at the other models a nice compromise would be just fine for us.

I think occasional vortices in ak are normal. Wasn't one around during some of our epic period last winter?

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I think occasional vortices in ak are normal. Wasn't one around during some of our epic period last winter?

Yeah those always happen. I'm referring to the broader picture, but it's such a poleward ridge that it works. Not worried, just watching it. Probably some typical ensemble variance.

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We are hardy folk who are used to Ptype issues and cheer on any snow for the interior. However it seems that when these folk may miss on snow, the pouting starts.

 

Thursday system, If it pans out may be this same scenario you have laid out above with snow inland and mixed bag at the coast, There will always be winners and losers in these systems

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Yeah those always happen. I'm referring to the broader picture, but it's such a poleward ridge that it works. Not worried, just watching it. Probably some typical ensemble variance.

I wasn't worried when you said they retro the ridge. I took a look myself and they look decent.

 

P.S Wxbell now has the ECWMF Ensembles through D15 so more asking Scott how they look :lol:

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Thursday system, If it pans out may be this same scenario you have laid out above with snow inland and mixed bag at the coast, There will always be winners and losers in these systems

And hard for us to complain when so early in the season. SSTs should be in the U40s next week which is still warm, but helps. These cold shots knock it back a degree or two each time.

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Not sure why comments are being made about losing the midweek system when the overnight runs and the ens brought it back. It seems the bigger worry is ptype vs OTS to be sure

Well it's definitely a thread the needle event, but too early to say either way. I remind those to look at the comments we made last night about model

mayhem.

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Not sure why comments are being made about losing the midweek system when the overnight runs and the ens brought it back. It seems the bigger worry is ptype vs OTS to be sure

 

Seems like the 2 most likely scenarios are out to sea or too warm for snow. The least likely scenario would be a good winter storm. Seems like everything remains sort of strung out a bit and regardless of where it tracks it's not terribly organized. Would need the bomb in the right place for snow here. 

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Here are some record earliest dates for high temperature at or below temperature thresholds.

 

 EARLIEST DATE IN FALL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE AT OR BELOW THRESHOLD
TEMP    ALB     BDL     BDR     BOS     BTV     CON     ORH     PVD
--------------------------------------------------------------------
 35    10/30   11/06   11/06   11/02   10/10   10/23   10/20   11/11
 34    11/02   11/10   11/18   11/04   10/20   10/23   10/23   11/14
 33    11/02   11/11   11/18   11/04   10/23   10/23   10/23   11/14
 32    11/06   11/11   11/18   11/08   10/23   10/23   11/06   11/14
 31    11/10   11/14   11/22   11/14   10/23   10/23   11/06   11/14
 30    11/14   11/15   11/22   11/14   10/23   11/10   11/06   11/14
 29    11/14   11/16   11/23   11/16   11/02   11/10   11/11   11/16
 28    11/14   11/16   11/27   11/16   11/02   11/14   11/11   11/16
 27    11/14   11/16   11/27   11/16   11/11   11/14   11/16   11/16
 26    11/14   11/17   11/30   11/21   11/14   11/15   11/20   11/16
 25    11/14   11/25   12/03   11/21   11/14   11/15   11/20   11/25
 24    11/15   11/26   12/03   11/21   11/14   11/15   11/20   11/30
 23    11/15   11/26   12/06   11/21   11/14   11/15   11/20   11/30
 22    11/21   12/03   12/11   11/29   11/15   11/15   11/23   12/03
 21    11/21   12/03   12/11   11/30   11/15   11/25   11/27   12/03
 20    11/25   12/03   12/12   11/30   11/15   11/27   11/30   12/03
 19    11/25   12/03   12/13   11/30   11/15   11/27   12/03   12/03
 18    11/26   12/03   12/13   11/30   11/15   11/27   12/03   12/03
 17    11/26   12/03   12/13   11/30   11/21   11/27   12/03   12/04
 16    11/26   12/04   12/13   11/30   11/25   12/03   12/03   12/04
 15    11/26   12/05   12/21   11/30   11/25   12/03   12/03   12/04
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We are hardy folk who are used to Ptype issues and cheer on any snow for the interior. However it seems that when these folk may miss on snow, the pouting starts.

 

LOL.  At least with p-type issues you can get some front-end or backend snow.  With cirrus, you get butkus.

 

Thursday system, If it pans out may be this same scenario you have laid out above with snow inland and mixed bag at the coast, There will always be winners and losers in these systems

 

 

Well it's definitely a thread the needle event, but too early to say either way. I remind those to look at the comments we made last night about model

mayhem.

 

That's what I said.

 

Here are some record earliest dates for high temperature at or below temperature thresholds.

 

 EARLIEST DATE IN FALL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE AT OR BELOW THRESHOLD
TEMP    ALB     BDL     BDR     BOS     BTV     CON     ORH     PVD
--------------------------------------------------------------------
 35    10/30   11/06   11/06   11/02   10/10   10/23   10/20   11/11
 34    11/02   11/10   11/18   11/04   10/20   10/23   10/23   11/14
 33    11/02   11/11   11/18   11/04   10/23   10/23   10/23   11/14
 32    11/06   11/11   11/18   11/08   10/23   10/23   11/06   11/14
 31    11/10   11/14   11/22   11/14   10/23   10/23   11/06   11/14
 30    11/14   11/15   11/22   11/14   10/23   11/10   11/06   11/14
 29    11/14   11/16   11/23   11/16   11/02   11/10   11/11   11/16
 28    11/14   11/16   11/27   11/16   11/02   11/14   11/11   11/16
 27    11/14   11/16   11/27   11/16   11/11   11/14   11/16   11/16
 26    11/14   11/17   11/30   11/21   11/14   11/15   11/20   11/16
 25    11/14   11/25   12/03   11/21   11/14   11/15   11/20   11/25
 24    11/15   11/26   12/03   11/21   11/14   11/15   11/20   11/30
 23    11/15   11/26   12/06   11/21   11/14   11/15   11/20   11/30
 22    11/21   12/03   12/11   11/29   11/15   11/15   11/23   12/03
 21    11/21   12/03   12/11   11/30   11/15   11/25   11/27   12/03
 20    11/25   12/03   12/12   11/30   11/15   11/27   11/30   12/03
 19    11/25   12/03   12/13   11/30   11/15   11/27   12/03   12/03
 18    11/26   12/03   12/13   11/30   11/15   11/27   12/03   12/03
 17    11/26   12/03   12/13   11/30   11/21   11/27   12/03   12/04
 16    11/26   12/04   12/13   11/30   11/25   12/03   12/03   12/04
 15    11/26   12/05   12/21   11/30   11/25   12/03   12/03   12/04

 

Interesting--if I'm reading that right, BOS was faster than ORH in achieving a daily high of 15 or lower.

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Interesting--if I'm reading that right, BOS was faster than ORH in achieving a daily high of 15 or lower.

It's possible it was some 188x year when BOS was the only station in southern New England. I thought about throwing the years on the chart but wanted to keep it compact.

EDIT: It was 1875 with a high of 10. The next time BOS was AOB 15 for a high was 12/8/1906 with a high of 14.

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