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November weather dicsussion


ORH_wxman

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15F.  Should be close to singles by morning.

 

Yup, it's cold and it's November.

 

I'm already sick of those searching for some dramatic early season snow event vs those arguing that we're well ahead of the past few winters with deep cold.   Who cares, enjoy the very defined change in seasons.

 

It may well be shaping up to be a much below average cold winter in NE.  Will it snow?  Of course but stop hanging on D10 model output and enjoy the cold dry air on your skin because it's only around for a precious few months.  I for one appreciate bone chilling cold air whether it snows or not.

 

Rant over.

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Remember to try to keep the plain obs in the obs/banter thread guys. This winter we're going to try to keep the discussion threads purely discussion.

Euro op has some snow for CNE with next week's system, but the ens have a lot of warm/wet members and cool/dry members so we sorta thread the needle with this op run. The GFS pushes that polar front well south of us and the southern stream system slides mostly to our SE. Call me in a few days.

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I like these words from HPC:

 

RECENT GFS RUNS...
INCL THE NEW 00Z VERSION WHICH APPEARS PARTICULARLY QUESTIONABLE
WITH ITS SHRTWV CROSSING THE NORTHEAST EARLY TUE... ARE FLATTER
THAN CONSENSUS WITH THE NRN STREAM TROUGH BY MID-LATE PERIOD. AS
A RESULT THE GFS BECOMES MORE SUPPRESSED WITH THE SRN TIER LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOC MSTR. AT THE MOMENT THERE APPEARS TO BE A
STRONG ENOUGH UPSTREAM RIDGE TO SUPPORT THE CONSENSUS REPRESENTED
BY THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND IN PRINCIPLE BY RECENT ECMWF RUNS.

TO VARYING DEGREES RECENT GFS RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD ECMWF RUNS
THAT HAVE BEEN FORMING A CLOSED LOW WITHIN THE OVERALL TROUGH
NEARING THE WEST COAST BY AROUND NEXT WED. THE 12Z ECMWF IS STILL
ON THE WRN/SWRN SIDE OF THE FULL GUIDANCE SPREAD WITH ITS UPR LOW
AND HAS TRENDED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CA COAST VERSUS THE TWO
PREVIOUS RUNS... SO WOULD STILL PREFER A LESS EXTREME SOLN THAN
THE ECMWF. BY DAY 7 THU THE INITIAL ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND AT THE
SFC WAS ADJUSTED TO REFLECT A MODEST SFC SYSTEM JUST OFF THE CA
COAST... ASSUMING SLIGHTLY GREATER SEPARATION ALOFT. THE NEW 00Z
GFS HAS ADJUSTED ITS SFC LOW EWD TOWARD THIS IDEA.

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I saw the snow map and it had decent accumulations for many folks but I guess it was off

You really want to see the low blow up as it passes our latitude. It flipped to snow at the end it appeared, but it was borderline. If it developed quicker off to the south than it would help. Again this is a thread tr needle system. If it develops to much than we are flooded with warmer air, especially aloft.

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You really want to see the low blow up as it passes our latitude. It flipped to snow at the end it appeared, but it was borderline. If it developed quicker off to the south than it would help. Again this is a thread tr needle system. If it develops to much than we are flooded with warmer air, especially aloft.

This is the map I saw..so was basing it off of that

 

pic.twitter.com/yLCyFnz1ej

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Scott and Kevin are referring to T-Day.

 

I'm close to writing that one off.......I don't see what will keep that from passing off-shore.    But, that's why I'm not paid to do this stuff.  :)

 

Managed a low of 20.8 at the Pit in a final 90-minute drop.   Warming up pretty quickly now.

 

24.0/17

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I'm close to writing that one off.......I don't see what will keep that from passing off-shore.    But, that's why I'm not paid to do this stuff.  :)

 

Managed a low of 20.8 at the Pit in a final 90-minute drop.   Warming up pretty quickly now.

 

24.0/17

 

Next week is so far off in model land with this one.  Way too many variable to resolve and as Will said, many of which play into model biases.  Monday we should have a better idea.

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I'm close to writing that one off.......I don't see what will keep that from passing off-shore.    But, that's why I'm not paid to do this stuff.  :)

 

Managed a low of 20.8 at the Pit in a final 90-minute drop.   Warming up pretty quickly now.

 

24.0/17

 

You do realize its out at hr 156 right?   lol

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