HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 15F. Should be close to singles by morning. Yup, it's cold and it's November. I'm already sick of those searching for some dramatic early season snow event vs those arguing that we're well ahead of the past few winters with deep cold. Who cares, enjoy the very defined change in seasons. It may well be shaping up to be a much below average cold winter in NE. Will it snow? Of course but stop hanging on D10 model output and enjoy the cold dry air on your skin because it's only around for a precious few months. I for one appreciate bone chilling cold air whether it snows or not. Rant over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 15F. Should be close to singles by morning. 17 here in the "valley" of Tolland... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 17 here in the "valley" of Tolland... Damn cold for the date. I'm in an elevated river valley (Green River) about 8 miles W of the Ct River. Just let the dog out and instantly felt the cold air on my arms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Remember to try to keep the plain obs in the obs/banter thread guys. This winter we're going to try to keep the discussion threads purely discussion. Euro op has some snow for CNE with next week's system, but the ens have a lot of warm/wet members and cool/dry members so we sorta thread the needle with this op run. The GFS pushes that polar front well south of us and the southern stream system slides mostly to our SE. Call me in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 I like these words from HPC: RECENT GFS RUNS...INCL THE NEW 00Z VERSION WHICH APPEARS PARTICULARLY QUESTIONABLEWITH ITS SHRTWV CROSSING THE NORTHEAST EARLY TUE... ARE FLATTERTHAN CONSENSUS WITH THE NRN STREAM TROUGH BY MID-LATE PERIOD. ASA RESULT THE GFS BECOMES MORE SUPPRESSED WITH THE SRN TIER LOWPRESSURE AND ASSOC MSTR. AT THE MOMENT THERE APPEARS TO BE ASTRONG ENOUGH UPSTREAM RIDGE TO SUPPORT THE CONSENSUS REPRESENTEDBY THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND IN PRINCIPLE BY RECENT ECMWF RUNS.TO VARYING DEGREES RECENT GFS RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD ECMWF RUNSTHAT HAVE BEEN FORMING A CLOSED LOW WITHIN THE OVERALL TROUGHNEARING THE WEST COAST BY AROUND NEXT WED. THE 12Z ECMWF IS STILLON THE WRN/SWRN SIDE OF THE FULL GUIDANCE SPREAD WITH ITS UPR LOWAND HAS TRENDED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CA COAST VERSUS THE TWOPREVIOUS RUNS... SO WOULD STILL PREFER A LESS EXTREME SOLN THANTHE ECMWF. BY DAY 7 THU THE INITIAL ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND AT THESFC WAS ADJUSTED TO REFLECT A MODEST SFC SYSTEM JUST OFF THE CACOAST... ASSUMING SLIGHTLY GREATER SEPARATION ALOFT. THE NEW 00ZGFS HAS ADJUSTED ITS SFC LOW EWD TOWARD THIS IDEA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Still some snow on the euro for SE areas Sunday although not like 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Euro is a decent snow event away from the coast , but you could also see a rain changing to snow scenario too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 19 here, not too bad for Nov 21! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Euro is a decent snow event away from the coast , but you could also see a rain changing to snow scenario too In truth I'd looked like mostly rain everywhere with snow later in the system inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 In truth I'd looked like mostly rain everywhere with snow later in the system inland. Euro looked rather mild for everyone to be honest. Maybe tail end snow for most at the end, but it was mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Snow at the end never seems to amount to much with these Still a way off though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The euro ensembles tried to build up and retro the Aleutian ridge towards Kamchatka very late on the run. Hopefully it moves east because you do not want a Kamchatka ridge ad it connects to an AK trough. GEFS were better looking and further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Otherwise still a decent look here with storminess in some form in early December. Canada is very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 In truth I'd looked like mostly rain everywhere with snow later in the system inland.I saw the snow map and it had decent accumulations for many folks but I guess it was off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 I saw the snow map and it had decent accumulations for many folks but I guess it was off You really want to see the low blow up as it passes our latitude. It flipped to snow at the end it appeared, but it was borderline. If it developed quicker off to the south than it would help. Again this is a thread tr needle system. If it develops to much than we are flooded with warmer air, especially aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 What are you guys talking about? Sunday or Thursday? 6z gfs it's pretty tame on both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 What are you guys talking about? Sunday or Thursday? 6z gfs it's pretty tame on both. Scott and Kevin are referring to T-Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Sunday's "stuff" could be gone in an instant. Inv troughs are tough and verbatim looked like it was only for the elbow of the Cape. Biggest news will be the cold, for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Dropped into the teens at the bottom of my hill and ice on the banks of the brackish inlet near me. Early for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 What are you guys talking about? Sunday or Thursday? 6z gfs it's pretty tame on both. Scott and Kevin are referring to T-Day. . Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 You really want to see the low blow up as it passes our latitude. It flipped to snow at the end it appeared, but it was borderline. If it developed quicker off to the south than it would help. Again this is a thread tr needle system. If it develops to much than we are flooded with warmer air, especially aloft. This is the map I saw..so was basing it off of that pic.twitter.com/yLCyFnz1ej Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Scott and Kevin are referring to T-Day. I'm close to writing that one off.......I don't see what will keep that from passing off-shore. But, that's why I'm not paid to do this stuff. Managed a low of 20.8 at the Pit in a final 90-minute drop. Warming up pretty quickly now. 24.0/17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 This is the map I saw..so was basing it off of that pic.twitter.com/yLCyFnz1ej Lollies to an inch on that (I assume those are MM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 I'm close to writing that one off.......I don't see what will keep that from passing off-shore. But, that's why I'm not paid to do this stuff. Managed a low of 20.8 at the Pit in a final 90-minute drop. Warming up pretty quickly now. 24.0/17 Next week is so far off in model land with this one. Way too many variable to resolve and as Will said, many of which play into model biases. Monday we should have a better idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Dropped into the teens at the bottom of my hill and ice on the banks of the brackish inlet near me. Early for that. Cheap cold does that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Cheap cold does that It does. MQE agrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 I'm close to writing that one off.......I don't see what will keep that from passing off-shore. But, that's why I'm not paid to do this stuff. Managed a low of 20.8 at the Pit in a final 90-minute drop. Warming up pretty quickly now. 24.0/17 You do realize its out at hr 156 right? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 You do realize its out at hr 156 right? lol Interior people are funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Big time inversion today. Lots of smoke from fireplaces trapped in low spots. Take the under on high temp forecasts today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 You wonder how far below normal all 4 climo sites will be this month? Could we see some -3 or more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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