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November weather dicsussion


ORH_wxman

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the track of the mid-week system is going to be all over the place for days. 

 

 

Yes...its perfect for model mayhem. You have an ejecting cutoff from the southwest and a very fast moving polar jet to the north. Perfect for playing into different model biases.

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Nice high bridging in, but a little flat.

feel like the fast flow aloft over the northern tier relative to the cut-off and energy coming out of the southwest is going to mean the track up or off the coast is in flux on guidance right up to the middle of next week. that is, timing each of the impulses of energy embedded in the NW flow and then the subsequent relaxation behind them...not going to be easy on models. 

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feel like the fast flow aloft over the northern tier relative to the cut-off and energy coming out of the southwest is going to mean the track up or off the coast is in flux on guidance right up to the middle of next week. that is, timing each of the impulses of energy embedded in the NW flow and then the subsequent relaxation behind them...not going to be easy on models.

Oh yeah, we may not know until Tuesday lol. Like Will said those features will be absolute havoc for models. That 500mb low wobbling over the SW and screaming flow coming from the Pacific and then Canada. Models really perform well in those situations. This also will be a thread the needle deal if we get it.

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Brutal early season cold Ginxy.  Mood flakes Sunday and Tuesday.  GFS develops Sunday just too late but then again 24 hours ago it was nothing...Euro time.

Hopefully a pretty good Windex event is in the cards. How about that wind though, geez after the Jet engine here Mon night look forward to hearing the hounds howling again. Forky just signed off though.
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The 00z GFS is pretty funny...it has a raging +AO, but we are in the freezer because the one place with strong ridging is over AK in conjunction with a  PNA-type ridge in the west.

 

Yeah PNA ridging over NW Canada should allow cold anticyclones to form and push south into the US. In theory we don't really need the AO. Weenies over-rate it because it has some correlation with the PNA and NAO.

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